Nats “Win” No. 2 Pick in ’23 Draft
While some fans may lament not getting the top pick, it could have been worse. Just ask our perennial (annual?) trade partners in Oakland.
The actual draw took place prior to the MLB Network special, which you can read about here. TL;DR – the Twins getting into the Top 5 was quite the coup when you look at the maths. Conversely, the Phillies and Padres took a tumble from where they would have been in the old system (#20 to #29 and #21 to #27) vs. the new.
In other words, it looks like the new system may work by making tanking much less certain a “strategy.” Why the italics? Because I’m not convinced the MBA’s and Ph.D’s won’t find an inefficiency. Why the quotes? Well, you might remember when Stan Kasten all but admitted the Nats were losing for Harper.
Who might the Nats go for with the #2 pick? I’ll leave that to Mr. Boss. Plus, the names and/or the order in which they should be considered will only change 97 times in the next seven months.
Tonight is the Rule 5 Draft, which will be like a fart in the wind in the big scheme of things. Will the Nats actually take the pick? If so, which Diamondback will they select? Or will they trade it? Or make a trade after making the pick?
Stay tuned. Tomorrow’s post might be the last for a while, given how offseasons have gone the past few years.
I like the new draft lottery approach, but I hate that its arrival comes at precisely the time we’re almost certainly going to be the worst team in baseball for a few years. If you’re the worst, this is only bad. But if you’re just sort of bad, it’s exactly that – a lottery – and can go either way.
Either way, looking forward to drafting a toolsy high schooler, who doesn’t know yet how to use those tools, or a 6’10” college starting pitcher coming off TJ.
Ward eases the sting of Cole Henry injury
I wonder how Seth Shuman compares to Ward
Just please pick a college player who can advance rapidly. They’ve got a lifetime supply of teenaged “tool sheds.” Rizzo keeps talking about how they know how to do it from when they got good before. Well, they got good with high picks of college players who were able to be in the majors in two years or less: Zim, Stras, Harper, and Rendon. (Yes, Harper counts as a college player; he was the national college player of the year, even while at JUCO.) J-Zim and Espy were also college picks who made the Show in two years (neither were Rizzo picks).
It’s a little bit of a chicken or egg situation. Are we awful at developing HSers, hence why Rizzo has never drafted them? Or do we never draft them, which is why we’re bad at it?
Since 2012, the Nationals have signed only 24 HSers (and 8 of those came in just the last two drafts). I’d be willing to bet a significant amount that that is by far the fewest in MLB. I don’t have the data for every team, but the Guardians signed 60 HSers in that same period. Blue Jays: 57, Rays: 45, Cardinals: 45, Giants: 37.
So this recent pivot to drafting HSers is certainly strange. And if Rizzo is claiming some past history of success with drafting HSers, that’s even stranger.
The only Nat HS draftee who I can recall moving through the system in solid, steady progression was Carter Kieboom. Of course he then ran right smack into a brick wall trying to make the final step from AAA to the majors. Jesus Luzardo, from the same 2016 draft, also progressed quickly to the majors through the A’s system, subsequently had a couple of years of struggle at the MLB level, then was good for the Marlins last year. But that’s it. It’s a very short list. Among the recent guys, T. J. White had a reasonably good start to his pro career, but House and Lile have already missed significant time due to injury.
I guess you’d have to go all the way to Ian Desmond, picked by the Expos in 2004, to find a high school pick who became a regular contributor to the Nats, unless you want to count semi-regular Michael A. Taylor. High schoolers Giolito (eventually) and Souza (briefly) succeeded at a fairly high level after being traded. They both netted key pieces to the championship team in return (one of whom just came out to be worth $300m), and high school pick McKenzie Mills brought back Howie “Foul Pole” Kendrick.
alex trebek ! 200 for LSU Tiger alums!
lets take a look at how Pittsburgh filled their prospect cabinet quite well even with a year they were parked in the two slot.
Carnak hat and envelope borrowed from the Johnny Carson estate: Carnak
says either Erik Miller or Kerry Howell.
gotta add that Stanford red blood to the mix.
Fred MD
The bats may not elevate off Wilmington 22 to Burg 23 but some starters might .
Doc Watson probably not done inking a few more farmhand FAs to fill some slots .
Listen to the Doctor ( Doobie Bros !$)