The Preliminary 2022 Watchlist
With Thanksgiving in the rearview mirror, it’s time to take a look at the 2022 edition of the watchlist – the twelfth of this site’s existence, but the first really new one since 2019 (a.k.a. The Before Times).
For those of you who aren’t familiar, I’m not big into ranking guys 1-XX even if that may cost me some page views, which I only care about insofar as generating enough revenue to cover the costs of hosting. If I want pointless arguments, I’ll watch Steven Seagal debate Gary Busey. Besides, both of the two major “rankers” – MLB Pipeline and Baseball America – value incumbency more than production to an insanely annoying degree.
Before I go any further, a reminder of the caveats:
• It’s not a depth chart. It’s ordered by the highest level played to date. The guys at the top of the column are not necessarily better than the guys at the bottom.
• It’s (mostly) based on 2021 usage. The Nats have a history of rotating IFs between 2B, 3B, and SS and are usually not very strong at 1B or the corners of the OF.
• It’s preliminary. I’m relying on you, the reader, to write in with omissions, criticisms, and/or suggestions because (A) my time is limited (B) the community here is generally smarter than the average bear (C) I’m prone to overlooking draftees because, unlike basketball or football, it happens in the thick of the season (also, see: A).
I also decided to create a one-off category called “Rebuilds,” to address the guys picked up at the 2021 trade deadline, which was an outlier in and of itself. Many of these guys are very close to exhausting their rookie eligibility anyway, but due to the nature of how and why they were acquired, they’re going to have more attention paid to them in 2022.
Finally, the notables are what they’ve always been: a place to house the “but what about…” guys who are almost always older or hurt. Before anyone asks… I’ve lost patience with Seth Romero and Mason Denaburg, who (maybe not) coincidentally are the former and the latter.
So let’s kick off the 2021-22 offseason, and take a look at what we got here:
| C | 1B | 2B/SS | 3B | OF | RHP |
| Pineda | Mendoza | Alu | G. Lara | Antuna | Adon |
| G. Diaz | Boissiere | Cluff | Meregildo | Connell | Cavalli |
| Frizzell | Baker | J. Sánchez | Méndez | Schaller | |
| Infante | De La Rosa | Henry | |||
| House | Marte | Peterson | |||
| Rivero | Arias | Rutledge | |||
| White | Cuevas | ||||
| Lile | A. Lara | ||||
| Hiraldo | |||||
| Caceres | |||||
| LHP | Rebuilds | DSL Bats | DSL Arms | Notable Arms | Notable Bats |
| F. Perez | Ruiz | Tejeda | Agostino | Klobosits | Rhinesmith |
| Cronin | Adams | Santana | Atencio | J. Romero | Upshaw |
| Troop | Casey | Garcia | Cedeno | Cate | Quintana |
| Lee | Thompson | Colmenares | Leon | Tetreault | Canning |
| Parker | Carrillo | W. Diaz | Moron | Dyson | |
| Hernández | Guasch | Cruz | D. Perez | Powell | |
| Chu | Shuman | ||||
| Saenz | Millas | ||||
| Ferrer | Barley | ||||
| Marquez | Ramirez | ||||
| Alvarez |
UPDATED
Made some tweaks based on the feedback in the comments. For aesthetics, I collapsed the 2B and SS again and broke apart the notables. I probably could have done the same for the 1B and 3B but didn’t need another column, though I could probably create one —Wasted 1st Rd. Picks—but then I’d have to build another page in January.
Luke, below are some inputs for your consideration in no particular order. You won’t get any argument from me on Denaburg or Seth Romero.
1. Millas is the only one of the trade deadline guys who is listed in a position category instead of the Rebuilds category. I assume that’s just because you wanted a third catcher to list?
2. Cruz is the only DSL guy you have listed in a position category instead of DSL bats. Is that because you wanted a third SS? If so, Rivero seems to have played a lot more at SS than 2B. I’m assuming you put him at 2B to have three listed there. You could always move Cruz from SS to DSL, Rivero from 2B to SS, Alu from 3B to 2B since he’s played about the same at each, Meregildo from 1B to 3B since he’s played about the same at each, and Harrison from Notables to 1B since that’s what he mostly plays now. I think that would still leave you three listed at each of the four infield positions.
3. You have Hernandez and Marquez listed as RHP; they are both LHP.
4. For RHP I like Tetreault and Dyson better than Cuevas, Hiraldo and Caceras. I know you don’t like draft position, but maybe have Holden Powell too since he was a 2020 3rd round pick who seems to have been injured most of the year and hasn’t really pitched yet.
5. For LHP maybe consider Andrew Alvarez. In a small sample size of 9IP the 2021 12th rounder had a 1.00 ERA and 12.0 SO/9.
6. For the DSL bats maybe the 17 yo Contreras instead of 18 yo W. Diaz.
7. For the DSL arms, it’s all small sample sizes but I like the 17 year olds Zapata, Rivas and/or Perez better than 20 yo Moron.
The rankings by (1) position and (2) ascendancy have a way of focusing on strengths and holes. Strengths: 2B and SS. Holes: 1B and 3B. Both a hole and a strength: OF — nothing promising at the upper levels but five, maybe six youngsters who could be exciting. Collectively, RHP and LHP could be relabeled as “Disappointments.” Rebuilds could be classed as “Upgrades.” More than in past years, this year’s Watchlist includes “Really Worth Watching.” Previously, “Hope for Surprises.”
Agree with Theo on 3rd base. Jake Alu had a breakthrough year but he at best could contribute to the big club in 2023.
My $0.02, while also pondering what an overall depressing collection this is. There are two or three who are really exciting, and then a lot of wishful thinking.
— The only significant omission I see on first glance is Will Frizzell. I have much more hope for him than I do any of the three listed for 1B. Boissiere strikes me as more a Marmolejos type, line drives but not a lot of HR power. Frizzell had 19 homers playing in the SEC in 2021. He may or may not pan out, but he’s going to do a few loud things along the way.
— I agree with James’s lobbying for Tetreault and Dyson. They’ve got more of a MLB shot than a number of the ones listed. Holden Powell also needs to be either RHP or Notables.
— On the LHP side, Troop pitched a little at AA and should be listed above Evan Lee, the latest curious addition to the 40-man.
— Not sure why Quintana is “Notable” instead of OF, unless it’s because he’s barely played. He’s certainly one of the better OF prospects . . . or at least is supposed to be . . .
— Dustin Saenz got a $500K bonus, so presumably the Nats think he’s notable, or something. Of course Denaburg and Romero got a lot more . . .
Oops, I see that Saenz is on there.
Hope I’m not too late to the party, but some omissions I see:
LHP – Carson Teel – the biggest omission from the list, Teel was dominant after being shifted to the bullpen (2.52 ERA) and even got a late promotion to AAA. Think we’ll see him in DC in 2022.
RHP – Frankie Bartow – had a less impressive 2021 compared to 2019, but still looks to be one of the most promising RPs in the upper minors of the farm
RHP – Zack Brzyckzy – started the season impressively, but faded down the stretch. Still, he’s got better “stuff” than most.
RHP – Andrew Karp – the guy can’t stay healthy, but fortunately did for most of 2021, putting up an impressive 3.35 ERA with 64 K in 53 IP. At 26 his star is fading, but could be in the mix in DC in later 2022.
OF – Jacob Young – he’s got an impressive pedigree. While he wasn’t good in his month of pro ball, he’s still someone to watch going forward.
LHP – Michael Kirian – another 2021 draftee. He acquitted himself well in his weirdly short (again, why did it take the Nats so long to assign new signings?!) 2021 with a 3.55 ERA. Also, he was a relatively high pick (6th round) and that alone should merit inclusion.
1B – KJ Harrison – still not wowing anyone, but looks a much better prospect than Mendoza, and outperformed Boissiere in his limited cameo.
C – Brady Lindsly – outperformed Pineda offensively, and Lindsly is supposed to be better than Pineda defensively.
Does Harrison repeat in Harrisburg to start 22?
Does Jose Sanchez get promoted more on his utility player skills than his hitting ? Another A Sanchez ?
May as well add Cole Quintanilla our 9th rounder from 2021. He was also solid in limited time in FCL/Fburg
Did Mendoza get added, I don’t remember him from before? If you want a third 1B I would probably go with Harrison (who was dropped from Notable Bats) over Mendoza.