BA, Keith Law Rank Nats #30 Farm System
Well, no news so far about the minors at a macro level, just a tweet from the Senators confirming they’ve signed the PDC.
But there was some news from Baseball America, as its annual prospect handbook has come off the presses.
Truth be told, this is not a surprise. The boys in Durham explained it thusly:
The last time the Nationals were dead last in our talent rankings (2008), they were trying to dig out from the everything-must-go mentality of the final years of the Expos. This time they are recovering from winning a World Series in 2019.
Yesterday, Keith Law also ranked the Nats #30 for The Athletic [Gambling text ad removed], but offered up some hope:
Their international scouting department has been very aggressive under the new system, however, and the Nats’ system could look a whole lot better in a year if all of their teenage Latin American prospects get a chance to play and show us if their abilities line up with their tools.
You might remember for one brief moment in time—December 2011 to be exact—when the Nats were ranked #1 in MLB, which was immediately rendered moot by the Gio Gonzalez trade, and became #12 in the post-offseason/pre-season ranking the following March.
If you haven’t been paying attention, it’s pretty clear that GM Mike Rizzo doesn’t give a rat’s ass about how the team (or any given prospect) is ranked. I suspect, deep down, most GMs don’t but they’re more willing to pretend they do to assuage the casual fans and lazy beat writers.
As we’ve long noted in this space, there are a chosen few who will be favored to make it to DC; the rest are trade inventory.
Rizzo’s consistent approach makes it much easier to accept low rankings. I enter each season hoping at least a few players blossom enough to become trade chips. Wil Crowe is just that kind of player and he has been rewarded with a much improved opportunity for MLB playing time with the Pirates. Max Schrock comes to mind, as well, having now drunk his cup of coffee yet somehow held enough interest to have been passed around between teams on the waiver wire. If Rizzo can keep the Nats competitive this way, I will not mourn the loss of players we have followed through your excellent blog for years.
This time is far different than the 4 years in a row the Nats/Expos were dead last. Then it was said that the gap between #30 & #29 was the Grand Canyon.
In normal times Luis Garcia would still be a prospect and he alone would raise the system 5-7 spots. Let’s wait a few months when we can actually see what the prospects are doing. Right now there’s a lot of grasping in the dark.
The Nats strategy over recent drafts to focus only on pitching has failed. Outside of Carter Kieboom (who is a question mark), the Nats haven’t drafted a legit position player prospect since Rendon 10 years ago. That is atrocious, and by far the worst in the game. Have no idea who a group of smart people could come to the conclusion that the best way to accumulate talent is to essentially refuse to consider 60%+ of the available talent (non-pitchers) in the primary way to acquire assets (the MLB draft).
I guess you can claim that Trevor Crowe helped the Nats acquire Josh Bell, but that was more of a salary dump than the Pirates coveting Crowe.
Maybe BA and Law are little off, but if the Nats aren’t DFL in system talent. They are close, and even with 2019 WS, that is inexcusable.
I’d argue their biggest failure is to develop talent at all from the draft. In the 5 year period 2013-2018, which should be the foundation of any good young team right now, Erick Fedde and Austin Voth are the only two players out of roughly 200 that have been worth than more than 1.0 WAR for the Nationals, which is a pretty insanely low bar (and they each have been worth merely 2.2 and 1.4 WAR, respectively). The 2017 draft is looking particularly damning with our entire hopes pinned on Seth Romero and Jackson Tetreault being worth anything at all. I don’t think a single other draftee is still with the team, only 4 years later.
On the brightside, the Nats international scouting has been much better, producing >1 WAR players in Soto, Robles and Suero, with Soto being more valuable in two months what Voth and Fedde have been combined.
It’s been said that “The knock on the Nats is that hardly anyone they draft gets significantly better,” which on its face, does seem a rather F.P. thing to say (painfully obvious) since the Nats do not draft high school players, but I think there’s something there.
I’ve been reading (well, listening: that’s how I read most often these days) “Dollar Sign on the Muscle” and there’s a part where the scouts rail against the Yankees “development,” and it’s hard for me not to notice a similar trend when you look at the projected starters for 2021:
C – Gomes (Toronto)
1B – Bell (Pittsburgh)
2B – Castro (Cubs) or Garcia (Nats IFA)
SS – Turner (San Diego)
3B – Kieboom (Washington) or Castro (Cubs)
LF – Schwarber (Cubs)
CF – Robles (Nats IFA)
RF – Soto (Nats IFA)
SP – Strasburg (Washington)
SP – Scherzer (Arizona)
SP – Corbin (Angels/Arizona)
SP – Lester (Boston)
SP – Voth/Fedde (Washington)
LHRP – Hand (Marlins)
RHRP – Rainey (Cincinnati)
So maybe the Nats get credit for the IFAs, which I don’t think anyone here can deny is the system’s true strength, but for the non-IFAs, none of them are lower than the 5th round, which kinda/sorta supports that thesis. There just aren’t any late-round guys that exceeded expectations and stuck in the majors.
Sheldon Neuse secures Oakland
A promising lefty swinging outfit outfielder in Cody Thomas another OU Sooner alum .
Rizzo knows his hunches
Neuse not a factor in any 3 b equation in Oakland and probably not LAD
I’ve been arguing some of these same things over at Todd’s Nationals Arms Race so won’t repeat myself too much. Yes, I totally agree that you have a problem when you only invest one first-round pick in nine years on a position player (Kieboom, who is now wobbly about whether he’s going to really “make it”). I jump up and down every year that they’ve got to invest some draft capital in hitters. I’m told in response that they “know” pitchers and pitcher development. Um, the only Nat-drafted pitcher on the World Series roster was a 1/1 generational-level pick. The only Rizzo-drafted position player was a 1/6 pick. (Zim and MAT were Bowden draftees.)
In his entire time with the Nats, Rizzo has only drafted two position players who have become MLB regulars for an extended period of time: Harper (1/1), and Rendon (1/6). Billy Burns and Brian Goodwin played semi-regularly for a while with other teams.
Yes, the Nats have done reasonably well with IFA’s, certainly better than with draftees. But again, they’ve also had several flame out, particularly pitchers, but also some touted hitters like Anderson Franco. They’ve also completely ignored Asian players, other than a disastrous, late-career dabbling with Chien-Ming Wang in 2011-12.
Sao wrote on the wrong site that all the Nats affiliates have signed their agreements. Not a big surprise considering the alternatives.
Does anyone know if any affiliates walked away? I’m curious, thinking that at least someone somewhere said thanks but no thanks.
No surprises – all 120 invited signed.
Grab your popcorn and enjoy the show
Carter Kieboom fully knows he has brass in his corner . No signing to the infield yet .
WPB camp will be interesting to see how kids like Antuna , Geraldo , Cluff and Lara move ahead with their reps and adjustments .
Very interesting fact eyeing the Indiana Hoosiers baseball program after the Nats signed Kyle Schwarber .
Scott Rolen a big name in the program
The 2020 roster filled with many ( to use the modern phrase ) kids accessed through the “ transfer portal “. Especially infielders .
In four months all fans , scouts , industry execs , coaching staffs will have a bettter acessment of what talent truly lies dormant for a year of almost no activities .
What’s the old saying ? Time plus tragedy equals humor or God has a sense of humor and is a true gag writer .??