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The Rizzo Rebuild Has (Finally) Begun

With a series of trades with four playoff contenders on Thursday and into Friday, the Washington Nationals officially acknowledged what has been painfully obvious since last summer — the window has closed.

So please, no more 19-31. No more “Let’s go 1-0 today.” Tuesday’s gone. So is 2019. It’s over.

For prospect followers, this is like your birthday, Christmas (or Hannukah or Kwanzaa or Solstice), and your anniversary combined.

Well, maybe not. But after years of watching the cupboard go bare – and yes, I understand that’s part of The Process and that it resulted in the 2019 World Series title – it’s great to have some actual prospects again to root for.

In many ways, this is reminiscent of July 2010 and December 2011, when the Nats picked up Wilson Ramos, Tanner Roark, and Gio Gonzalez and went from a sub-.500 team to a contender. That’s not to say that it’ll happen that way or that soon… but it might.

In other ways, this is very different. The Nats traded away All-Stars, key pieces from the 2019 title run, and what may still prove to be a player having a career year that may prove to be an outlier.

Let’s take a quick look at what they got:

FROM TORONTO: C Riley Adams
Catching has been very thin for the Nationals for quite some time. Ramos would actually prove to be a blueprint: A hitter who can (sort of) catch with a lot of power (see also: Read, Raudy). The 25-y.o. was a 3rd Rd. pick for the Blue Jays in 2017 and was hitting .239/.371/.487 for the AAA Buffalo Bisons after serving as a backup in the majors.

[Insert obligatory caveat that the Nats-Dodgers trade is not yet official here]

FROM LOS ANGELES (NL): C Keibert Ruiz
BA says the 23-y.o. Ruiz is the third-best catching prospect and 16th-best overall. A switch-hitter with “elite strike-zone discipline” and “excellent plate coverage.” His ability to control the running game is a serious weakness (6CS in 33SBA’s) and his game-calling has been described as “improved,” which is also a bit telling.

FROM LOS ANGELES (NL): RHP Josiah Gray
This is the second time Gray has been traded for, the first being a December 2018 swap between the Reds and Dodgers that included Homer Bailey and Yasiel Puig. Gray could very well stay in the majors, perhaps even as a starter, as he features a mid-90s fastball, an above-average slider, and a “needs improvement” changeup.

FROM LOS ANGELES (NL): RHP Gerardo Carillo
Carillo is what the scouts would call a “live arm,” which means he throws hard but the bull better watch out. In 15 starts for AA Tulsa, the 6’1″ 22-y.o. has struck out 70 in 59⅓ IP (10.6/9IP) and walked 29 (4.4). The boys in Durham think he may be better suited as a late-inning reliever.

FROM LOS ANGELES (NL): OF Donovan Casey
Casey is repeating AA at the age of 25 and as a 20th Rd. pick out of Boston College. Scouts say his best tool is his throwing arm, with 15 assists in 2019 (but only three this summer, as folks no longer run on him), and also has above-average power. Looks like you’re moving to left field, Rhett.

FROM SAN DIEGO: RHP Mason Thompson
Sorry Mr. Denaburg, but there’s a new Mason in town. The older, but FAR more accomplished Thompson features the classic repertoire (FB/SL/CH/CV) with the heater and the slider most prominent. Like Gray, Thompson has had a taste of the majors and will be coming from AAA El Paso where he’s gone 3-2 with seven saves, though the thin air in the AAA West has inflated his ERA to 6.08.

FROM SAN DIEGO: SS Jordy Barley
2021 has been the first one stateside for the 21-y.o. IFA. He’s posted a line of .240/.333/.388 in 61 games for Low-A Elsinore. The Padres signed him for $1M in 2016 and he was ranked #30 by BA for his “quick-twitch, plus-plus speed, and bouncy, freakish athleticism.” Obviously, he’s still trying to turn those tools into skills.

FROM BOSTON: RHP Aldo Ramirez
The 20-y.o. Mexican is the youngest player here and the highest newly ranked of the four to join the MLB Pipeline at #8 (Adams is #10, Thompson is #13, Barley is #23). Ramirez is currently on the IL with “right elbow tendinitis” (you can roll your eyes, it’s okay) but is already in the FCL for evaluation. Like all Rizzo RHPs, he throws in the mid-90s with a four-seam, low-90s with a two-seam, and is working on a mid-80sd change, and a high-70s curve.

12 Commments

  1. Well, that’s a way to kickstart a rebuild…

    I revisited my prospects list, and have Ruiz and Gray at #1 and 2, then Cavalli, Rutledge, Parker (who everyone is majorly sleeping on), then Ramirez and Carrillo. It’s insane that BA/MLB/etc. are still insisting that Antuna and his .206 AVG is a better prospect than Ramirez or Gerardo Carrillo (or even A. Lara, de la Rosa, Cate). My top 10 plays out this way:
    1. Ruiz
    2. Gray
    3. Cavalli
    4. Rutledge (coming off his first good outing of the season)
    5. Parker
    6. Ramirez
    7. Carrillo
    8. Cronin
    9. Henry (are we sure he still exists?)
    10. Adams (but am very curious to see more from him. He could be the next Gary Sanchez (2016-2017) or the next Gary Sanchez (2020).)

    Hope Rizzo hasn’t forgotten that Brady House remains unsigned amid all these other distractions. If House signs, he slots in between Cavalli and Rutledge, and Adams, probably rightly, falls out of the top 10. I don’t know what’s taking so long. The Nationals only have a finite amount of money. Surely, by now, they’ve offered the max value to House, so what’s there left to consider?

    Then we still have tradeable assets in Bell, Gomes and Harrison, though I doubt either will yield a prospect of a high enough caliber to enter into this discussion.

    However, with all of this said, we still have a bad farm system. FanGraphs pegs us at 23rd best (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=). Unfortunately, I think we’re going to need a few more drafts with top 5 picks for us to right this ship and have sufficient talent to actually get this overdue rebuild off the ground, especially our hitters. A near-future rotation of Cavalli-Rutledge-Gray-Parker-Fedde/Corbin-and whatever’s left of Strasburg, could be competitive. But that lineup… do we have any hitters of note projected to contribute anything of note in the next 3 years? Soto, Ruiz… then there’s a cliff of insane proportions, then Mason Thompson, Donovan Casey, Jake Alu, and maybe one of our recent college draft picks (Boissiere, Young, Frizzell). House, de la Rosa, Infante, Quintana, Lile are all like 5 years off still…

  2. “Catching has been very thin for the Nationals for quite some time.”

    Funny, I’d argue that catching depth even before these trades was one of the few Nats (comparative) strengths.
    Tres Barrera and Raudy Read are both flawed, but ML-ready players.
    Jakson Reetz is another 1-2 years off, Israel Pineda 2-3. Then there’s Brady Lindsly, Steven Williams and Andrew Pratt as wildcards in the mix too.

    That’s definitely a lot more depth than another other non-pitching position in our system.

    But now, we’ve actually got a bottleneck of prospects with Ruiz and Adams in the mix! Can’t remember the last time we had “too many” hitting prospects at one position.

    1. Prior to the Gonzalez trade in 2011, the Nats had Ramos, Norris, Leon, and Nieto.

  3. It should be noted that all of the players we got from the Dodgers are out of options and can not be sent down next year. Have to check with Todd on that.

    The return for Schwarber is really lame, an A pitcher with elbow problems. Scwarber was a big fan favorite who put fannies in the seats.

    1. FanGraphs says Ruiz has one option remaining, Gray 3. Neither Carrillo nor Casey have been promoted, so they will have all their options remaining.

      1. I’m very glad to be completely wrong on the options. Flexibility is important.

  4. MLB Pipeline has Ramirez, bad elbow and all, as the now #8 prospect in the Nats system.

  5. Thanks for the background on each of the players. It will be interesting to see where they are assigned in the Nats system and impact on other players/rosters.

  6. I really like the return from San Diego. Thompson’s ERA in the PCL/beer league are not a problem.
    Look forward to seeing what Barley can do in Fredericksburg.

    Even if Ruiz, from the Dodgers, doesn’t stick at catcher the Nats are looking increasingly better at that position in their system.
    Barrera looks like he can hit major league hitting, and he could always play defense. There’s enough other wild cards that I can see the future looking good at that position.

  7. Love the cover image with Rizzo. This is a painful process, but necessary.

    Ruiz and Gray are legit prospects, although I don’t know that we’ll get to discuss them much here as they will probably go straight to the majors. Luis Garcia will finally get his shot at SS. With Starlin Castro suspended and now released, they might as well give Kieboom an extended run at 3B as well to see if he can finally figure things out.

    Yes, the Nats really needed to restock the farm. But why? How have the Dodgers kept winning over this same period, yet have a much better-stocked farm than the Nats do? And this is after they have made big prospect-heavy trades for guys like Betts and Machado. So the Dodgers are now supercharging while the Nats are tearing down. This is the ultimate price the Nats are having to pay for the decade of getting very little from the draft.

    1. Why? Long story, short. The Dodgers can identify and develop talent. The Nats can’t.

      Casey was a 20th round pick. Ruiz and Carrillo were IFAs. Gray was an add-on to a larger trade.

      The Nationals have gotten 2.3 total WAR from their draft picks in the past decade. The Dodgers have gotten 2.3 WAR or more from FOUR of their first round picks in that same period, and have never drafted earlier than 18th overall. If you dig deeper beyond the first round, you’ll find Verdugo (6.5 WAR), Bellinger (18 WAR), Stripling (4.7), Gonsolin (3.2). That’s eight players who are individually better than the entirety of the Nationals draft selections for 10 years.

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