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The BA Prospect Handbook, Part Two

Picking up from our last post, here are nos. 16 through 31 in the 2013 BA Prospect Handbook…

16. Ricky Hague, SS/2B (15)
17. Destin Hood, OF (11)
18. Robbie Ray, LHP (17)
19. Brett Mooneyham, LHP
20. Corey Brown, OF
21. Estarlin Martinez, OF
22. Brandon Miller, OF
23. Chris Marrero, 1B (12)
24. Carlos Rivero, 3B/SS
25. Steven Souza, OF
26. Billy Burns, OF
27. Ivan Pineyro, RHP
28. Paul Demny, RHP (29)
29. Wirkin Estevez, RHP
30. Jhonatan Solano, C
31. Shawn Pleffner, 1B

As mentioned previously, a sizable portion of this list is what prospect followers would call “old” — others might call them 4A, some folks would have an entirely different opinion — which is what happens with the draft tilting so heavily towards collegiate players. Drafting last in the Rule 4 draft, in a year that is considered one of the weakest in recent memory (insert “Girlwatching” joke here), one has to wonder if this is when Nationals GM Mike Rizzo finally starts to roll the dice on some HS guys.

Let’s take a look at how the newcomers to the BA list were acquired:

2012 Draft — Lucas Giolito (2), Tony Renda (12), Brett Mooneyham (19), Brandon Miller (22)

2011 Draft — Billy Burns (26), Shawn Pleffner (31)

2009 Draft — Nathan Karns (5)

2007 Draft — Steven Souza (25)

Int’l Free Agents — Estarlin Martinez (21), Ivan Pineyro (27), Wirkin Estevez (29), Jhonatan Solano (30)

Domestic Free Agent — Christian Garcia (6)

Waiver Claim — Carlos Rivero (24)

Trade — Corey Brown (20)

That’s quite a hodge-podge, with two of the team’s Top 10 coming out of nowhere to the casual fan. I’m tempted to lump in “fantasy” with “casual,” but I’m aware that there’s a subset of folks that are into prospects for the purposes of getting a Christian Garcia or Nathan Karns onto their team. If only there were a way to make a buck off ’em the way BA can…

The better news, of course, is that 27 of these 31 are homegrown. In addition to spending big and taking risks, I believe BA rewards this in terms of ranking the organizations (#1 St. Louis is 30 of 31). Four more tidbits before we close out with a look at the 2016 Nationals…

…Taylor Jordan is their breakout prospect for 2013, citing the return of his 96 mph heater. Having seen him in 2010, I can understand the hype if indeed he’s fully recovered from TJ surgery and progressed accordingly.

…Perhaps not coincidentally, Karns is listed second and Jordan third in the RHSP depth chart behind, of course, Giolito

…Shawn Pleffner is their sleeper for 2013, noting that 2011 was lost to injury (sports hernia), which somewhat validates my decision to include him on the watchlist.

…With Matt Skole still not officially recognized as a 1B, Chris Marrero is still the top-rated 1B in the organization (which in part is why I included Pleffner and Kevin Keyes)

The 2016 Nationals (pay no attention to injuries, trades, or free agents)
C – Wilson Ramos
1B – Ryan Zimmerman
2B – Danny Espinosa
SS – Ian Desmond
3B – Anthony Rendon
LF – Brian Goodwin
CF – Denard Span
RF – Bryce Harper
#1P – Stephen Strasburg
#2P – Lucas Giolito
#3P – Gio Gonzalez
#4P – Jordan Zimmermann
#5P – Ross Detwiler
CL – Drew Storen

Like your rural pothead, BA likes ’em homegrown — 12 of those 14 to be exact. I can buy Giolito’s ceiling, but the #2 SP after what will undoubtedly be two innings-limited seasons? Sure, and that’s just a lamp…

19 Commments

  1. Did you write BA a nasty letter for putting Solano on the list?
    Where’s the acompanying staff photo to this post?
    BA doesn’t pay attention too much if they think Span’s going to be with the team in 2016.

    1. No, no nasty letter to BA for Solano. Couldn’t get LuLu to pose w/ the book — she wanted to eat it.

    2. Solano is a pretty good catcher and Brown? 4A? Org? Todd Boss they said the same thing about Morse and he was older as I recall?

      Brown has the skills, the tools, his problem like Morse’s has been injuries of late. Let’s see if he can win a job in ST 2013.

      1. And Rivero looked pretty good in winter ball and he is still a pretty young player and his age is right for the AAA level.

      2. There’s always exceptions to the rule (Morse). But the other 99% of the time you need to move on. Brown now has 6 full minor league seasons and 2600+ career plate appearances. Rivero just finished his 7th full pro season and has over 3300 minor league plate appearances.

        Most impact MLB players are in the majors far sooner. Its why they have a rule5 draft where its timed; if you’re not a pro prospect by 4 years out of college or 5 years out of HS/DSL, you’re almost guaranteed to be an org guy/fringe 25-man roster guy at best.

        Btw, Morse isn’t exactly a comp; he made his MLB debut at 23, right at the 5 year mark after being drafted out of HS. And he hit well; 97 OPS+ his debut season. He had knee surgery in 06, which cost him a bunch of time, and just looks like he couldn’t break a very good Seattle OF in 07. Then shoulder surgery in 08 cost him nearly the entire season. Then he’s traded. Its not quite the same as two guys who are career minor leaguers.

  2. So here’s a question; they’ve got Corey Brown and Carlos Rivero (two guys who I think are inarguably career minor leaguers/org guys/4-A players) but nowhere on this list is ERik Davis, who the team just protected for (assumedly) the purposes of protecting him from Rule5 because they think he’s a MLB-quality arm?

    Where’s the disconnect here? Why list a guy like Brown, who has already survived one DFA but not list a newly added 40-man prospect?

  3. Different question; for the edification of us that didn’t buy the handbook, can you tell us (if you didn’t already) where the out-going prospects we lost this year via rule5 and trade are ranking on their respective teams? Kobernus, Meyer, Rosenbaum primarily but i’d also be curious at this point about how BA sees the guys we’ve traded to Oakland over the past couple years.

    2. Nelo and McGeary weren’t ranked, Kobernus was Detroit’s #20, Rosenbaum was Colorado’s #22, Meyer was Minnesota’s #4. Peacock was Oakland’s #4, (Cole was #3), but Freitas didn’t make the cut — a bit of a surprise, considering he was promoted after the trade and put up strong numbers (.333/.392/.524) in 20 AA games.

  4. Do they really think that Werth will be a $20M bench player? I am pretty sure he is signed through at least 2016.

    1. Werth himself thinks so (or inferred as much when he said he wouldn’t mind being on the bench later in his career) … and given his decline it seems highly likely in 2 years don’t you think?

      If its about what’s good for the organization? And Werth would make a decent bench bat if he embraces the role.

  5. Rendon will never play third for nationals in the big leagues and giolotto will be another high priced flop!

  6. Sorry guys but only a nut would move zimmerman to first and have rendon fill his spot! Second giollotto has proven nothen except that he is good at being injured like purke and that the last real yr he had was his junior yr in high school

    1. Wow, you should look at some numbers before making statements like that. The Rendon for Zimmerman switch is marked in 2016 not next season or even the 2 years after that. By that time Zim may truly need to move over and since Rendon is a highly rated defensive third baseman it only makes sense.

      Giolito has had one injury. This does not make him an oft injured guy. Do you call Jordan Zimmermann an oft injured guy? Even if Giolito ends up being an injury prone guy he projects as someone like Josh Johnson. He has top of the rotation stuff who even if he can only manage 15-20 stars on a consistent basis is still the type of arm you keep around and adjust accordingly to.

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