Tuesday’s News & Notes
| Team | Yesterday | Today | Pitching Probables |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rochester | OFF DAY | vs. Worcester, 6:45pm | Champlain (5-1, 3.69) vs. Anderson (1-3, 4.89) |
| Harrisburg | OFF DAY | @ Richmond, 7:05pm | Simpson (0-0, 2.52) vs. Perdomo (2-1, 3.86) |
| Wilmington | OFF DAY | @ Greensboro, 6:30pm | Tepper (1st A+ start of ’26) vs. Hernandez (1-1, 4.08) |
| Fredericksburg | OFF DAY | @ Kannapolis, 7pm | Manning (3-0, 2.57) vs. Wynk (0-2, 3.34) |
| FCL Nationals | Won, 9-8 | vs. FCL Mets, 12pm | |
| DSL Nationals | Lost, 3-1 | @ DSL Phillies, 11am |
Rochester Red Wings, 38-24, 1st I.L. East, ½ GA
Despite a constant churn of players moving between upstate NY and DC, Rochester remains atop the International League by a half game with 13 games to play. Seven of those will come this week as the Red Wings play the (ugh) WooSox for the third time in seven weeks, including an afternoon twinbill on Thursday.
Harrisburg Senators, 30-27, 3rd E.L. Southwest, 7½ GB
At one point, this week’s series might have been the Sens’ best chance to catch or overtake the Flying Squirrels. But Harrisburg has won just 14 of its last 31 games and has sunk into 3rd place. Meanwhile, Josh Randall was crowned the E.L. Pitcher of the week for his seven shutout innings last Friday – the fourth Senator to achieve the feat this season.
Wilmington Blue Rocks, 27-29, 3rd Sally Lg. North, 9GB
Likewise, Wilmington got within a 1/2 game of 1st place in early May and has lost 18 of 30 to fall below .500 and into third place. This week, the Blue Rocks take their show on the road against second place Greensboro for five night games and a matinee on Sunday. Roster moves: IF Gavin Dugas released (eff. 6/6)
Fredericksburg Nationals, 41-16, 1st C.L. North, 10GA (clinched 1st half title)
With the first-half title in the books, the FredNats have nine games to go after two more records: most by a Low-A affiliate in the Nationals era of the franchise (44, 2014 Hagerstown Suns), most in the history of the team (45, Alexandria Duke, 1982). Gavin Fien became the third FredNat to be named POTW after going 9-for-18 with a double, a homer, and 15 RBI last week. This week, the team heads to Kannapolis for the first of two series between the two teams.
FCL Nationals 9 FCL Marlins 8
• Reyes 3IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, 1BB, 3K, HR, BK, PO @ 2B
• C. Sanchez (W, 1-1) 2⅔ IP, 2H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 1K, WP
• Waco (SV, 1) 1⅓ IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 3K, HR, 2-2 IR-S
• C. Tavares 1-2, 2R, 2B(5), 2BB, SB
• German 1-2, 3R, 3BB, 2SB(6)
• Cortesia 0-0, 4BB, 2SB
The FCL Nationals blew a 4-1 lead but scored twice in the 4th and three times in the 6th and survived a late rush to win, 9-8. Juan Reyes went the first three and was strafed for four runs on eight hits (one HR) and a walk while striking out three. Camilo Sanchez got credit for the win but was charged with three runs, “thanks” to L.J. Waco letting in both inherited runners on a three-run HR to the first batter he faced. Waco worked a 1-2-3 seventh to earn the save. The F-Nats had but six hits but drew 12 walks and stole seven bases, with Carlos Tavares connecting for the sole extra-base hit and Brayan Cortesia walking four times to lead the FCL Nationals offense. Roster moves: Everett Cooper assigned from Fredericksburg for MiLB Rehab; RHP Tyler Schoff MiLB rehab ended, reassigned from Rochester, RHP Camilo Sanchez MiLB rehab endeded, reassigned from Fredericksburg (both eff. 6/6).
DSL Cardinals 3 DSL Nationals 1
• Manzueta (L, 0-1) 2⅔ IP, 2H, 2R, 1ER, 2BB, 4K, 3WP
• M. Ruiz 1⅓ IP, 0H, 0R, 1BB, 2K
• E. Acosta 2-3, BB, 3SB
• Vargas 1-3, 2B
The D-Nats barely avoided the shutout as they converted just one of ten baserunners into a score in a 3-1 loss to the D-Cards. Anyel Manzueta didn’t make it out of the 3rd as he gave up two runs (one earned) on two hits, two walks, and three wild pitches. He struck out four while taking his first loss of ’26. Newcomer Euris Acosta reached base three times and stole three bases while Esnaider Vargas doubled for the sole extra-base hit for the dSL Nationals, who totaled six hits and three walks.
This is a bit off topic to the Nats specifically, or at least specific prospects, but the FCL Nats’ box scores today is a perfect illustration of something that’s been nagging at me recently. The FCL Nats scored 9 runs but only had 6 hits; surely an irregular occurrence. But not really. It’s not the first, or even 5th time the FCL or DSL teams have scored more runs than they’ve recorded hits. It’s felt like there’s been a lot more “little league” kind of performances in both leagues, where teams have failed pretty badly at the fundamentals, like throwing strikes, avoiding errors, etc, which is part of a much wider quite sudden trend in short-season ball.
The FCL Nats scored 9 runs in large part because FCL Marlins pitchers walked a ridiculous 12 batters in only 7 innings! It didn’t help that the Marlins committed 2 errors (resulting in 2 unearned runs), but the Marlins were also woefully unable to stop the Nats on the basepaths, catching only 1 of 8 stolen base attempts (to the Nats’ credit our catcher was 1 for 3 in attempts, plus one pickoff).
Unfortunately, Nats arms gave up 3 HR, but with the opposition giving 12 free passes it was enough to still get a win.
But all of this is part of a much wider trend in 2026. The quality of pitching in both the FCL and DSL has fallen off a cliff this year. It was never particularly good, but walk rates went from an already very high level of 6.1 BB/9 in 2025 in the DSL to an outrageous 7.6 BB/9 this year. Same trend in the FCL, going from 5.2 to 6.1, almost a 20% increase year-on-year! Wild pitches and hit by pitches are also up 20-30%. Defense has gotten worse, with fielding percentage dropping by almost 10 points in the DSL (to .949; though it’s stable in the FCL), while stolen bases have become even easier to steal, going from 76% in both leagues last year to 80% and 81%, in the DSL and FCL, respectively.
Meanwhile HRs are WAY up. They went from 0.5 to 0.7 HR/9IP in the DSL, which is a massive 40% increase! Over the course of the season, that’s pace for 500 more HR in the DSL compared to last season. But it’s even more extreme in the FCL. There, HRs have increased from 0.5 to 0.9 per 9/IP! It’s insane that numbers could basically double across a whole league from one season to the next. Yes, the state of pitching seems to be worse all around, but the FCL is composed almost exclusively of guys who were playing in either the FCL or DSL last season, who only allowed 0.5 HR/9IP last season…. so what gives?
Put this all together, and offense has spiked massively in both leagues. Runs per game in the FCL has increased from 4.6 to 5.5 per game, and in the DSL from 5.6 to 7.1!! League OPS is now .804 in the DSL, after remaining quite stable over the past 5 seasons (league OPS: .682 > .709 > .720 > .701 > .730)
Someone else commented recently that offense is way up at some higher levels too. For example, Wilmington had doubled their HR pace. Something tells me that Minor League Baseball is juicing the balls. Offensive explosions like this don’t happen overnight, even if the quality of pitching has declined.
It has me a bit more skeptical about our organization’s offensive turnaround. Maybe a big chunk of this is just EVERYONE is hitting better, and it’s not just the Nats.
to your point regarding ragged play, it’s the top of the first with runners on second and third in the FCL game yesterday. here’s what followed:
Everett Cooper III singles on a ground ball to pitcher Kifraidy Encarnacion. Marconi German scores. Brayan Cortesia scores. Everett Cooper III scores. Throwing error by pitcher Kifraidy Encarnacion
would love it if video existed on that one
For decades we’ve followed boxsvores from FSL or FCL with keystone cops play on hot sunny mornings in Florida .
Only the Young can say .. enjoy the Journey !
Senators should be slugging second half after the call ups
Peterson will truly look sweet book ended in lineup with lefty bats .
Has anyone watched the video on the Huntington Beach prep LHP talked about as a potential number one by the Young Turks ?
Jared Grindlinger. Have no idea what the Nats think of him, but there is no chance that this front office group is tipping off who they truly covet with their first pick (#11 overall). Any tout claiming that the Nats are leaning to taking Grindlinger or anyone else is full of it. Grindlinger is super-young for the draft (17 – he was in the HS class of 2026, but reclassified) and has two way potential (LHP/OF), but is a long long way from contributing as an MLB player.
Really good observation. The Nats have improved offensively, but also true that when looking around minors it seems like the production is way up everywhere. Your numbers confirm that. As another example, IIRC, the offensive numbers in Wilmington, a traditional hitter’s graveyard, are way up including HRs. While the new front office approach has likely contributed, it’s fair to also conclude that something in addition has changed. Likely the baseballs.
Not sure if that is a good or bad thing.
I guess one positive is that if the balls are juiced, its the same for all teams, and the Nats organization is having far more overall success (wins versus losses) this season than any season in recent memory. So, maybe offense is up everywhere, it’s fair to conclude that the Nats are still out-performing the recent past.
None of that explains the atrocious walk rates. Perhaps the overall talent pool is down. Particularly in the low minors.
I can’t speak to the short-season ball part of that, other than to point out that the DSL season is only a week old and it’s probably too early to generalize about YoY trends.
But I am pretty certain that (1) A, A+ and AA are using a different ball that is causing large increases in power and offense league-wide and (2) our hitting prospects at those levels have shown considerable improvement even after adjusting for the new league environment.