Nats Make Trade for Two Mariners Prospects
In the first time in forever, the Nats made a non-deadline trade, dealing Jose A. Ferrer for Seattle’s top catching prospect and an RHP to kick off the 2025 MLB Winter Meetings.
Cue the Moneyball comps in 3… 2… 1…
Harry Ford instantly becomes the Nats’ top catching prospect—and #2 overall—taking over the seat held by Caleb Lomavita in 2025 and would have been in 2026. The turning-23-in-February backstop posted a .283/.408/.460 line in 97 games at Tacoma last summer.
Despite the production, there are concerns about whether Ford can consistently make hard contact and his ability to throw out baserunners (23% across five minor-league seasons) despite what scouts describe as a plus arm. He was briefly tried in LF in 2024 but the experiment was abandoned after three errors in eight games.
“The other guy” is Isaac Lyon, Seattle’s 10th Rd. pick out of Grand Canyon University, who made made four starts for Low-A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League. He lost twice and posted a pitcher’s slash of 7.30/6.52/1.52 across 12⅓ innings. If you’re interested in a look at his repetoire, GCU’s soap-opera villain baseball analytics intern Drake Mann has you covered.
I have little doubt Ferrer is going to turn into an excellent RP with Seattle. Their pitcher development system is probably the best in the league, routinely churning out high quality arms. That Ferrer was able to succeed with the Nats in spite of our disastrous player development over the past half decade is yet another testament to his talent and character.
However, this is very much a win-win trade. The Mariners get a potentially very, very good arm. And the Nats get a potentially very, very good catcher, who is blocked by if-Aaron-Judge-didn’t-exist AL MVP, Cal Raleigh.
I’m really excited to see if the new coaching staff can help Ford make the changes necessary to be a MLB quality catcher, and if the hit tools translate like they look like they will! Great first move from Toboni!
Just a quick note on Ford’s throwing out baserunners. Yes, his CS% in AAA last season was “only” 23%. The CS% in the PCL last season? 20%. In 2024 in AA his CS% (19) was slightly below league average (22%). In 2023 in the AFL his CS% (33) was markedly better than league average (17) – with a SSS caveat there. In High A in 2023 his CS% (23) was essentially league average (24). In A ball in 2022 he (27%) was slightly better than league average 23%). In Rookie ball as an 18yo in 2022 his CS% (38) was markedly better than league average (27).
TL;DR: I’m not seeing a “concern” in his CS%. Context matters, and his CS% numbers have generally been at least average, often better than average, for the leagues in which he was playing. All while he was well below league average in age.
From the Athletic #1: “Ford had a mixed year in 2024, moving up to Double A and continuing to get on base, albeit with slightly worse results across the board at the plate, while his defense behind the plate was worse and there’s more chance now that he ends up at DH than there was a year ago,” Law wrote when he listed him as the Mariners’ No. 5 prospect in February, when Ford was coming off a 2024 Double-A season in which he hit .249/.377/.367 with seven homers.
From the Athletic #2:
“He’s a plus runner and great athlete who moves well behind the dish, but he’s a 45 receiver right now and his plus arm hasn’t translated into even average caught-stealing rates. The Mariners did try him a few games in left field this year, but the early returns weren’t promising. He’s 21, knows the strike zone, has untapped power, and is very athletic, all reasons to still believe there’s upside here, but Ford’s 2024 season was kind of a disappointment, and if he doesn’t stay behind the plate I’m not sure the bat will profile as a regular at any other spot.”
From the Athletic #3:
“Ford doesn’t square the ball up consistently enough for real power, making a lot of medium contact in Triple A but not enough hard contact to see 20 homers, and he continued to pop the ball up too often. The Mariners tried him briefly in the outfield in 2024 but only gave him eight games in left before giving up on the experiment, which wasn’t showing much promise.”
I didn’t link to these because they’re behind a paywall and hadn’t been archived yet. If Law is correct about the contact, then we should probably temper the idea that Han Solo (fun fact: his given name is Harrison Ford) could be the Opening Day catcher for the Nats. But scouts disagree and Law could be wrong.
Either way, the Nats’ catching depth just got a whole lot better.
Law can be a bit inflammatory and stubborn sometimes. With that said, “he’s a 45 receiver right now” is a massive upgrade. Ruiz and Adams are legitimately 20 or 25 level talents defensively. Ruiz’s -44 Fielding Run Value since 2022 is the 2nd worst in all of baseball. Riley Adams’ -30 is only 6th worst, but is only weighed down by his limited playing time. If he had played the same number of innings as Ruiz, his FRV would be -66! I’m fairly certain that Adams is the single worst defender in baseball on a rate basis. So to have Ford, an average receiver with questionable arm, is a MASSIVE improvement.
For whatever it’s worth, here’s what FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline and ESPN had to say about Ford’s defense:
FG: “He’s still not the best receiver and pitch framer, but Ford does enough other stuff at a very high level to be an above-average catcher. ” 40 PV/55 FV
MLB: “He still has work to do with his overall defensive work in terms of blocking and framing, but he has strong leadership skills, works hard at his craft and his agility plays well behind the dish.” with a 50 defense rating
ESPN: “He has continued to progress behind the plate and is still a standout athlete” (no skill rating)
But ESPN had a little tidbit of info at the end of their scouting report, which I found interesting. I assumed Harry was a Henry. He’s not. He’s a Harrison. We don’t have the inventor of the assembly line on our hands, we have the inventor of the Millennium Falcon.
As for the “he has trouble with catching” narrative, that was clearly true AT ONE TIME. In 2022 and 2023, in A and A+ ball, he had 15 and 20 (21 really with one in the AFL in just 44 innings) passed balls. Yikes. BUT … in 2024 in 67 games behind the plate in AA he cut that down to five PB. In 2025, in 81 AAA games and six MLB games, he had ZERO passed balls. That’s a sign of some serious work on a weakness, which bodes well for the young man.