Baseball America Ranks the Top 10 Nats Prospects
For the first time in this decade, Cade Cavalli is no longer on this mother[loving] list. But that’s not what really jumps out. Just two (2) of these ten are college picks; six of ’em are HS draftees (five by Washington!).
It wasn’t that long ago (2020) that there were five HS guys in the entire organization. The Nats have finally gotten younger. But as we learned from Mason Denaburg Elijah Green countless others, that’s not a guarantee for success.
Without further ado, ze list:
- Eli Willits, SS (’25 Draft Pick)
- Jarlin Susana, RHP (3)
- Travis Sykora, RHP (2)
- Alex Clemmey, LHP (6)
- Seaver King, SS (5)
- Jake Bennett, LHP (13)
- Luke Dickerson, SS (11)
- Coy James, SS (’25 Draft Pick)
- Angel Feliz, SS (15)
- Landon Harmon, RHP (’25 Draft Pick)
I have little to add beyond what e-migo Todd Boss wrote on Friday, but I will call out his first impression (italics mine):
This seems like a very “conservative” top 10, one that’s mostly based on youth, ceiling, and promise. Four of these 10 guys didn’t play above rookie ball, if at all, in 2025.
Luke Dickerson is a perfect example what Mr. Boss means. Last year’s Nigel Tufnel posted a .204/.309/.319 line with Fredericksburg. That he still moved up on the rankings from the preseason probably says more about who’s in line behind him.
Still, we can enjoy the “new car smell” (or something else if you’re from my generation 😉 until next season starts…
I will echo some of the comments over at NatsArmRace, in that I don’t agree that Willits is a better prospect than Sykora or Susana.
Based on the scouting reports about Willits, he’s lacking elite upside, while having a pretty good floor, as much as one can for a 17 year old. His scouting profile looks a lot like Xander Bogaerts does today (not in his prime in Boston). That’s a very, very good player, but the upside of an All Star, 4-5 WAR player when everything goes right, or a 2 WAR player in down seasons.
Sykora, and to a lesser extent, Suana, meanwhile have true ace potential. Before Sykora got injured, he was having one of the best statistical seasons in the 21st century for a pitcher. Even if he’s out for TJ for a year, that upside cannot be understated or erased. Susana, meanwhile, to me, is a slightly worse version of Sykora. His control is still worrying, but his “stuff” is elite and true ace upside, and if everything fell into place well above a 4-5 WAR/season player that Willits’ ceiling is.
I’d also expect to see Petry on this list, especially ahead of James and Harmon. Since we have the recent draft rankings, it’s easy to compare.
BA: Petry 36, James 49, Harmon 65
But also:
FanGraphs: Harmon 31, James 66, Petry 104
ESPN: James 69, Petry 75, Harmon 76
Athletic: Petry 68, Harmon 95, James NR
MLB: Harmon 48, Petry 59, James 94
FG was the only one who could justify a list like BA’s, and weirdly BA had Petry quite a bit ahead of both James and Harmon. How has BA changed their minds about Petry after 24 pro games? Seems pretty silly to make a pretty big change after such a small sample (and NO sample from Harmon and James)!
Dickerson also feels like the odd man out. Not sure how his 2025 justifies a pretty big bump UP the list.
I’d probably have something like:
1. Sykora
2. Susana
3. Willits
4. Clemmey
5. Bennett
6. Petry
7. King
8. Feliz
9. Morales
10. Dickerson/Harmon/James/Sime/Tejeda/German/Cortesia (take your pick of untested teenagers)