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AFL/Offseason Update: Oct. 31, 2023

Scottsdale took another early lead only to see it go buh-bye in the middle innings as the Scorpions dropped their third straight, 5-3.

Four Nationals appeared in the game:

  • Trey Lipscomb shifted across the diamond to play first base, where he handled all six chances without an error. At the plate, the 23-y.o. went 1-for-4 with an RBI double and a run scored.
  • Orlando Ribalta made his sixth appearance but retired just two of five batters faced (albeit by way of the K), as he was charged with an earned run while issuing three walks.
  • Holden Powell got the last out for Ribalta in the 6th, allowing one of three batters to score, then retiring the side in the 7th.
  • Jack Sinclair pitched a 1-2-3 eighth with one whiff.

Scottsdale (12-11-1) returns home to play Peoria (12-10-1) this afternoon.



2023 Wilmington Blue Rocks

The Wilmington Blue Rocks flirted with .500 and relevancy for almost two months before finishing 5th (out of six) in the first half, sixth in the second half, and 20 games under .500 for the season as a whole.

Unlike the FredNats, the Blue Rocks were mostly a pitstop for the pre-existing prospects in 2023 (e.g., Brady House for 16G, James Wood for 42G) and definitely one for the 2023 Draft picks like Yohandy Morales and Andrew Pinckney, both of whom played just 18 games in Delaware before moving on to Pennsylvania.

Otherwise, the word that comes to mind is “disappointment.” As is always the case when following prospects, how much of that is because of the gap between what the cheerlead…er, the Top XX lists from Baseball America and MLB Pipeline say and what we saw in the boxscores is always a good question to ask. Still, more and better things were expected from players such as T.J. White and Jeremy De La Rosa.

But let’s instead focus on the pleasant surprises that were Andrew Alvarez and Jacob Young*. Alvarez tied with teammate Kyle Luckham with IP (129⅓ IP) and led the organization’s starters with a 2.99 ERA. Young, on the other hand, made it all the way to The Show while showing even better on-base skills at A+ and AA and decent pop at MLB (with the usual Sept/SSS caveat).
* I’ll get to Lipscomb next week for reasons that should be obvious.

Overall, the Wilmington’s batters were just a shade older than league average (22.3 vs. 22.2) but in terms of production, they were dead last in the Sally Lg. at 4.08 R/G (4.90 was Lg. Avg.). The pitchers, on the other hand, were much older (23.5 vs. 23.1) and a notch below average (5.03 vs. 4.90) and dead last in strikeouts while issuing the second-fewest walks and the fourth-fewest HR’s.

Defensively, the team was just about average in terms of FPct. with the catchers throwing out 29% of would-be basestealers, though like the shorties and the Freddies, teams did not run against the Blue Rocks very often (second fewest SB’s allowed) because they didn’t need to (second most wild pitches allowed).

Without further ado, here are the obligatory Top 5’s in terms of production:

TOP 5 BATS TOP 5 ARMS
1. James Wood, OF
.321 GPA, 8HR, .580 SLG% in 42G		 1. Dustin Saenz, LHSP
1.97/2.90/0.99, 2HR in 50⅓ IP
2. Matt Suggs, C
.287 GPA, 5HR, .509 SLG% in 33G		 2. Tyler Schoff, RHRP
3.37/3.13/1.12, 13.76 K/9IP
3. Will Frizzell, 1B
.281 GPA, .395 OBP in 76G		 3. Marlon Perez, LHRP
2.97/3.32/1.18, 11.37 K/9IP
4. Murphy Stehly, 3B
.278 GPA, .382 OBP in 33G		 4. Andrew Alvarez, LHSP
2.61/3.42/1.16, 4HR in 103⅓ IP
5. Jacob Young, OF
.273 GPA, .383OBP, 22SB in 56G		 5. Brad Lord, RHSP
3.56/3.52/1.26, 8.37 K/9IP

Full disclosure: I probably should have skipped some of these guys due to sample size or that I’ll most definitely (and hypocrtically) double-dipping next week. But if I didn’t I’d be including two guys (Lipscomb and De La Rosa) who weren’t even league-average.

Seven of these 10 were old for the level, which is not unusual for the Nationals given its propensity until recently to draft collegiate players in general and more than a few college seniors. Like Matt Suggs, who somehow got less reps than Caleb Farmer despite being younger and more productive on offense.

Once again, there are no honorable mentions since the gap between the #5 and #6 position is more like a chasm. Folks who are interested in seeing the full team statistics can find them here. Pitching data can be found here.

13 Commments

  1. Luke I notice you did not mention “ the Grand Canyon “ RE home field advantage park in Blue Rox article .
    Lee ( yeS – into the lens ) Orlando photo dawns nice today . Without any yellow ribbons lol.
    Meanwhile we await word from the Doctor …
    I’ve always wondered if baseball fans pay more for an MLB cap and jersey to fly to their games then their airfare ?? Lol.
    Some folks can only fit in a jersey anymore .. lol

  2. The coldest day I ever spent wasn’t a summer night at Candlestick Park , Samuel Clemens .. actually in dfw airport on Halloween .

  3. Our bats have been as disappointing as our arms have been appointing good. There’s some positives to take away from Hassell’s line so far: .273/.339/.346. His AVG is FINALLY out of the gutter, and showing good discipline. But the power outage continues. Hopefully his hand is still recovering, but I worry that the power won’t come back to pre-trade levels… Nothing good to take away from Lipscomb’s awful AFL so far: .206/.206/.238. Most worrying is he hasn’t taken a single walk in 63 plate appearances. This has been a wake up after a bit of a fairytale season. Lastly, Pineda can’t even match his 2021 AFL performance. And yet while only hitting .192/.235/.362, he’s somehow added .100 OPS points to his 2023 stat line.

    Despite a shaky outing, Ribalta has been very good, as well as Sinclair. Herz has been wild, but on the whole much better than average. Powell’s had a terrible showing, but finally put in a decent performance yesterday. He was always the longest shot for inclusion on the 40 man, so this performance just confirms what was already known.

    1. Don’t mean to be a debbie downer, but I read a recent article on Herz ( I think it was a MLBTR write up on AFL performances) and they were really low on him – too wild to make it as a starter and no third pitch.

      1. The Cubs dealt Made and Herz for Candelario, a rental. They are not sure fire prospects. Herz is an intriguing wild leftie. Interesting player to follow!!

  4. I’ve been on the Lipscomb bandwagon and don’t want to come across as an apologist, but I have looked back at the numbers trying to see what we might be missing, other than a great aversion to taking walks. Incidentally, that wasn’t as great of an issue for him in college, as he took 26 walks in 66 games for Tennessee in 2022 . . . but now only 27 in 145 games thus far in 2023. Wow.

    Overall, I do think games played should be taken into account. As noted, he’s at 145 (and counting) this year after 89 last year and only 35 in 2021 (including summer league). That’s a radical ramping up by any stretch of the imagination. He’s also moved around a lot in that time. He’s only in his first full year as a pro.

    Lipscomb’s relative lack of success at Wilmington led me to wonder if he had benefited from a super high BABIP at Harrisburg, but his .323 there is pretty sustainable. (It was .297 at Wilmington.) His BABIP in AZ has dropped to .277, so no luck there, and he’s also lost his extra-base mojo. His K% has bumped up to 25% in AZ after 18% at AA.

    On a positive note, they’ve had him playing all over the INF in AZ, so his positional flexibility seems legit.

  5. TJ White as a 19 year old was an aggressive move but after a full year in A ball I guess there was no other option. he still posted a respectable walk rate so there’s still promise.

    De La Rosa was coming on when he was injured, he hurt his arm sliding into second and came out an inning later. it didn’t look serious yet he didn’t play again. AA will be interesting for him

    Marlon Perez was consistently good again yet was never promoted despite his age. not sure they see him as much but don’t be surprised if he does well again on City Isle.

    Lara’s last nine starts and 11 of his last 12 were very good. the league hit under the Mendoza line against him during this stretch. he seems to be losing buzz because he doesn’t strike out many but it’s way to early for that. a year with Hanrahan in AA could be beneficial.

  7. Sorry I’m a couple days late, maybe it’s just me but I don’t see the actual top 5’s in this post.

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