The BA Prospect Handbook, Part Two
Alright, picking up where we left off…
| 16. RHP Thad Ward | 21. RHP Zach Brzykcy (37) | 26. RHP Gerardo Carrillo (8) |
| 17. OF Roismar Quintana (25) | 22. RHP Jake Irvin | 27. OF Daylen Lile (18) |
| 18. LHP Matt Cronin (15) | 23. LHP Evan Lee (22) | 28. LHP Tim Cate (19) |
| 19. C Israel Pineda (23) | 24. 3B Trey Lipscomb | 29. RHP Aldo Ramirez (13) |
| 20. LHP Jose Ferrer | 25. C Drew Millas (30) | 30. 1B Will Frizzell |
It’s a little disturbing that a Top-10 organization would have a Rule 5 pickup within its Top 30, never mind so high up. Why that might be? Perhaps because he was Boston’s #19 guy in 2022 and the #10 guy in 2021, and #7 in 2020…
Incumbency is about the only reason to explain a 25-y.o. who repeated not one but two levels in 2022 and only did well at the level in which he was a year older than the league average. Likewise for a 21-y.o. who did not pitch at all in 2022.
As in years past, IFAs make up a third of the list and pitchers half the list. Seven of the 30 were acquired, and four of the 30 were H.S. picks. It wasn’t that long ago (2020, IIRC) there were only four or five in the entire system.
Obviously, with the team in rebuilding mode, the shift has gone away from high-floor college seniors to high-ceiling HS guys. I don’t expect this to last, but it sure is nice to see… so long as both the front office and the fans remain patient.
Some tidbits:
- Breakout prospects: Pineda, Brzykcy, and Parker
- Still no word on Brady House’s injury beyond that it was in his back
- Shoulder woes were to blame for Carrillo’s performance, diminished velocity
- Brzykcy could make his MLB debut in 2023, likely to start ’23 in AAA
- Ramirez did indeed develop Nats’ elbow and had TJ surgery sometime in the spring
Now, we’ll examine what BA predicted in 2020 for 2023 (put down your morning coffee):
C – Tres Barrera
1B – Drew Mendoza
2B – Luis Garcia
SS – Trea Turner
3B – Carter Kieboom
LF – Juan Soto
CF – Victor Robles
RF – Adam Eaton
#1SP – Stephen Strasburg
#2SP – Patrick Corbin
#3SP – Max Scherzer
#4SP – Jackson Rutledge
#5SP – Wil Crowe
CL – Tanner Rainey
I don’t think we can be any more generous than 2-for-14, and that’s only if you count Corbin as the #2 guy (starting pitcher, not salary).
And we’ll close with the “I think we’re parked, man” list for 2026:
C – Keibert Ruiz
1B – T.J. White
2B – Luis Garcia
SS – C.J. Abrams
3B – Brady House
LF – Robert Hassell
CF – Elijah Green
RF – James Wood
DH – Joey Meneses
#1SP – Cade Cavalli
#2SP – MacKenzie Gore
#3SP – Josiah Gray
#4SP – Jarlin Susana
#5SP – Jackson Rutledge
CL – Jose Ferrer
Chase Dollander!!!
Juan Soto will re-sign!!!
Jeff Bezos will buy the team and will have a $700 billion payroll!
Thanks Luke – are you hearing anything about the manager’s position at H-burg? It seems odd to me that this hasn’t yet been announced as we get closer to the start of spring training. Thanks
Tom, still nothing… seems odd to me, too, since it’s usually the kind of thing the FO likes to fill the empty spaces of this time of year.
ever since Moses came back from his little hike with those tablets we’ve been infatuated with lists. I always revert to the since retired John Sickels, while he listed prospects he also included a rating. you would see that prospects on a list we given the same rating even though sometimes they appeared as much as ten places apart.
This overall top 30 is pretty poor from BA in my opinion. MLB Pipeline will probably/hopefully do a better job.
No Brenner Cox or Jared McKenzie.
Carrillo has never been particularly good, injury or not. Not sure why he keeps getting ranked.
All Jake Alu does it rake and nearly lead the minors in defensive metrics and you want me to believe Drew Millas and Tim Cate are better prospects. Neither should be ranked at all. The Frizzell inclusion is the only positive part.
It’s like once you get out of the top guys BA has no clue what’s going on in the Nats system.
I agree with Breezy that this is somewhat of a lazy list and that Alu, McKenzie, and Cox are notable omissions.
I’m intrigued by Ward. There’s really no gamble involved ($100K), and a real upside if he happens to hit.
The Nats have some interesting college hitters worth watching in the upcoming year. You usually know pretty quickly with those guys. They either hit almost right away (Alu, Baker) or they’re probably not going to (Mendoza, Cluff, many others). Lipscomb, Frizzell, and McKenzie all have the possibility of being MLB players if they click . . . or washing out pretty quickly if they don’t. No one talks about Murphy Stehly (8th round 2022), but he had massive numbers at U of Texas last season plus has some interesting positional flexibility.
Stehly not mentioned much due to age, turned 24 in September after being drafted, think he was a 5th year player – spent time a JuCo before 3 years at Texas. Signed for only $10k to move slot $$ to higher draft picks.
I almost wrote a variation of Breezy’s comment. He said it all.
I think you’ve got to give ba 3-14 on the 2023 list: garcia, Robles, and corbin. True, Robles is a placeholder unless he miraculously breaks out, but he is the incumbent cf.