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The BA Prospect Handbook, Part Three

Ordinarily, I break this up into two posts because this is a slow time of year. But the expansion from 30 picks to 40 gives me an excuse to draw this out to three!

Without further ado:
31. RHP Seth Shuman
32. 1B Drew Mendoza (10)
33. RHP Richard Guasch
34. OF T.J. White
35. 1B Branden Boissiere
36. RHP Todd Peterson
37. RHP Zach Brzckcy
38. OF Ricardo Méndez
39. LHP Dustin Saenz
40. RHP Holden Powell (18)

As I mentioned yesterday, you can probably make a case for some, if not, all of these guys to be ranked over the likes of Barrera, Romero, Denaburg, Cate, etc.

For me, the biggest “WTF?” was T.J. White because he checks all the boxes that the Boys in Durham seem to like – H.S. draftee, 5th Rd. Pick, strong showing in his pro debut, etc.

OK, now we can take a look back and laugh at what they projected for 2021 in 2018:
C – Raudy Read
1B – Daniel Murphy
2B – Wilmer Difo
SS – Trea Turner
3B – Anthony Rendon
LF – Adam Eaton
CF – Victor Robles
RF – Bryce Harper
#1SP – Stephen Strasburg
#2SP – Max Scherzer
#3SP – Joe Ross
#4SP – Erick Fedde
#5SP – Wil Crowe
CL – Seth Romero

I’m not sure you can even count Strasburg and his five starts, but even if you do, that’s a woeful 4-for-14. Now we close out with a peek at your 2025 edition, assuming no FA signings, trades, injuries, or declines in skill:
C – Keibert Ruiz
1B – Josh Bell
2B – Luis Garcia
3B – Carter Kieboom
SS – Brady House
LF – Lane Thomas
CF – Victor Robles
RF – Juan Soto
DH – Yasel Antuna
#1SP – Cade Cavalli
#2SP – Stephen Strasburg
#3SP – Josiah Gray
#4SP – Cole Henry
#5SP – Joan Adon
CL – Gerardo Carrillo

Maybe it’s just me, but of the current 40-man guys, only Bell, Gray, and Soto seem likely to start this season. Strasburg has his usual injury concerns, Robles finished last year in AAA, and we’re still waiting for García and Kieboom to “stick.”

Well, that was fun… now it’s back to the offseason doldrums.

12 Commments

  2. My 2025 lineup: c Ruiz, 1st Antuna, 2nd Garcia, SS Brooks Lee, 3rd House, LF Quintana, CF Vaguero, RF Soto, DH TJ White
    Cavalli, Grey, Henry, Lara, Ramirez (Strasburg if healthy, which I sincerely doubt) Closer: Carrillo
    Okay, admittedly I took a couple of liberties but I like my predictions better.

    1. Like the Brooks Lee angle
      We know some people trip over the name Lee in individual historical takes in region …
      Jackson ! Lol

      1. Imagine
        Another individual in system connects to KC Royals
        Rudy5 Martin
        That must mean Canning
        May start season @ AA

  3. I couldn’t have said it better than Luke on how #31-40 are all better than #26-30.

    I don’t know yet what the system has in Shuman and Guasch.

    1. Ronald Herrera deity pitching bullpen piece for AA
      You think the Gushue as Ed Sullivan might say is a really big shoe leading to a coaching career in a system filled with several former catchers ?
      We know Rizzo loves his catching corps

  4. Agreed that these 10 are arguably better than the preceding 10. And “credit” to BA for finally including 3 non-2021 draftees/former top 30/acquisitions from other systems in this list (Peterson, Brzckcy and Mendez).

    However, I wonder how much better Shuman or Guasch, for example, are than our own unheralded arms. Shuman at age 23 got rocked in A+ ball (6.03 ERA), meanwhile, for example, Alfonso Hernandez, two whole years younger, was better than Shuman in literally every statistic at the same level, and has been for several years prior. Similar comparisons could be made with Guasch.

    I’m actually quite curious if our traded away arms in the recent past also benefitted from such a prospect boost? Did Taylor Guilbeau or Tyler Watson get ranked higher than they deserved in their new systems after they were traded away? Or is the Nationals system (somewhat deservedly) considered a leper system, and just by association, prospects are discounted even in spite of good performances?

  5. Good points all, Will. And the evaluation of one player by, well everyone who does these evaluations, I don’t understand. Alfonzo Hernandez is young, a lefty, and basically has only put up good to very good numbers starting and in the pen. Yet, on this list, he doesn’t even get onto the top forty. I don’t get it, don’t know what I’m missing. It’s not like BA’s list doesn’t have some real duds on it. As I said the other day, BA’s credibility is extremely overrated.

    1. Okay, you made me look. Alfonso Hernande signed as 16 year old out of Venezuela, still only 22 at High A. Last year he pitched 102 innings, including 10 starts at Wilmington.
      His ERA last year was 3.61. Definitely a prospect!

    2. To keep piling on the BA criticism, Cole Henry’s short but sweet 2021 season has him skyrocketing up most charts. FanGraphs had him at #8 to start last season (before the firesale), and now pegs him to be right around #100 overall, not far behind our top heavy 3. Prospects1500 were similar. Had Henry at #8 as late as their 2021 mid-season update (which made sense as Henry was still injured), but rightfully saw him leapfrog a bunch of guys to #4 in their 2022 list. Meanwhile BA somehow pegs him below Antuna…

      Prospects1500’s 2022 list is actually really good: https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-east/nationals/washington-nationals-top-50-prospects-2022/

      I could disagree with a few rankings here and there, but as a whole it’s really sound. You even get appearances from Alfonso Hernandez, TJ White, Jacob Young and Yoander Rivero, which proves someone there is paying attention. Shame the same can’t be said about BA.

      1. Jacob Young seems to have adapted to pro ball right off the campus experience of U of AZ.
        Even if just at best and org piece .
        He and Chip Hale Wildcat
        alums

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