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Nats’ Next AAA Stop: Rochester

In the 21st century, a tweet can launch a thousand stories, even if it’s from a deranged lunatic.
But enough about Elon Musk.

Setting aside this was about as much a secret as Rudy Giuliani’s dye job or that the decision was MLB’s not the Nats’, or that Sen. Schumer had as much to do with this as you or I did, the first of the two biggest questions for the 2021 Nationals affiliation has apparently been answered.

Before I continue, let’s pause for a minute to celebrate that we now have a bat dog in our midst, as Milo (pictured above) introduced himself to the Natmosphere.

With the AAA problem solved, we turn to the next biggest question: Which team will be the fourth, joining the ‘burgs?

You’ll note that I didn’t specify which level. For those who don’t follow the comments, the formation of a new High-A league – the Mid-Atlantic League, but I’m offering up the name of The EZ-PASS league – complicates matters because there are several plausible scenarios in which the Carolina League drops its teams north of the Carolinas. Here’s one from frequent commenter SaoMagnifico:

MID-ATLANTIC LEAGUE: Brooklyn, Hudson Valley, Lowell, Jersey Shore, Aberdeen, Wilmington
CAROLINA LEAGUE: Rome, Greenville, Asheville, Hickory, Winston-Salem, Greensboro
SOUTH ATLANTIC LEAGUE: Augusta, Columbia, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Kannapolis, Fayetteville, Down East, Carolina, Salem, Lynchburg, Fredericksburg, Frederick

In this scenario, Wilmington is the most logical fit, given that it’s all-but-certain that Brooklyn (NYM), Hudson Valley (NYY), Lowell (BOS), Jersey Shore (PHI), and Aberdeen (BAL) will retain their pre-2020 relationships with their respective parent clubs.

Unfortunately, we have to hearken back to the word “several” (that’s why I bolded it) and remind ourselves that MLB is making the decisions.

11 Commments

  1. I’m hoping that, despite the squeals of protest from Angelos, the Nats end up with Frederick as their low A team.

  2. Like I said yesterday Baltimore is keeping its Short Season A team Aberdeen in its system. That means one of their Maryland affiliates is being bounced.

    Luke agrees with Sao that Wilmington looks like the next Nats affiliate. I’d like it to be Frederick if that’s a choice. The game musical chairs continues…………

  3. I was hoping for something closer than Rochester, but of course it beats the heck out of Fresno. Rochester is a nice little city . . . in the summer. Great jazz festival in June (in normal years).

    I will be disappointed as a local minor-league fan if Fredericksburg gets downgraded. I have been used to seeing the A+ level of talent at Potomac. That would also take down the talent level for rehab assignments, as guys liked playing a few innings in Woodbridge then making it back home to their own beds in DC.

    If they do away with all the rookie leagues, the lower-A franchise could be a weird mix of talent. I mean, are they going to send 17-year-old Latinos to full season? Keep them in extended spring training for half the summer and then send them? What about college draftees? In the past, only the elite have gone on to full-season A-ball.

    1. What does Google Maps say? As of this minute, it estimates it would take 2 hours, 21 minutes to drive from Washington, D.C., to Wilmington, and 1 hour, 25 minutes to drive from Washington, D.C., to Fredericksburg. FXB is closer, obviously, but the drive from Wilmington isn’t prohibitively long. For that matter, Frederick is a shade closer than Fredericksburg at 1 hour, 7 minutes right now.

  4. If Frederick and Wilmington remain unclaimed once all the other teams make their selections, echoing others above, I’d hope the Nationals take Frederick.

    In fact, the Orioles have a choice of two of Bowie, Frederick and Aberdeen. I’d hope the Nationals take whichever one is left over ahead of Wilmington.

    With that said, Wilmington isn’t a bad option, but there is almost certainly going to be a better option available than them.

  5. I’d love to have both Frederick and Fredericksburg in our grasp.

    I’m also putting in a vote for Lynchburg, which makes more sense for us in Washington than it does for its current owner (Cleveland) if Frederick is on the chopping block and cannot be salvaged.

  6. Will, the Orioles have already said they’re keeping Aberdeen, with the Rypken connection.
    Sao and Luke would know this for sure but I think its between Frederick and Delmava.

    1. And I don’t think Delmarva has a prayer of sticking unless there’s another Maryland team in the same league. There was a reason why they played Hagerstown and Lakewood like 78 times a season, no?

  7. To be clear, the Nats can only affiliate with both Fredericksburg and one of Frederick or Delmarva if they 1) remain in the affiliated minor league structure after the cuts and 2) are in different leagues. Neither is clear to me (nor is it clear, for that matter, that Fredericksburg and Wilmington will definitely end up at different levels). Teams have input, but my understanding based on what Ballpark Digest and Baseball America have reported is that MLB is driving this bus, and if MLB decrees that the Nats are going to be affiliated with the Yakutat Runway Bears, then that’s the way it is.

    If (and this is a big “if”, albeit an educated “if”) the goal of realigning the A-ball levels/leagues is to create more geographically compact leagues with geographically sensible affiliations, it’s difficult to understand why and how the Carolina League would stretch from at least North Carolina to NoVa while simultaneously, the South Atlantic League would stretch from at least South Carolina to Maryland. (And remember, one of those leagues also has to include Rome, in northwest Georgia, because the Atlanta Braves outright own both Rome and the Double-A affiliate in Mississippi.) By necessity, at least one of those leagues is going to stretch across likely three or four states, but remember that the South Atlantic League will have four to six more teams than the Carolina League does.

    Now, MLB could decide that keeping the leagues as intact as possible takes precedent over its stated goals of reducing travel time both between minor league ballparks and the minor league team and its major league parent. After all, the existing South Atlantic League has teams in Maryland and New Jersey while skipping over Virginia entirely. But given that we know at least some teams are changing level (Jersey Shore and Greensboro have already been widely reported, and Myrtle Beach and Bowling Green have been rumored, not to mention the teams being salvaged from the defunct short-season leagues), it would seem odd for MLB not to take this opportunity to reduce the overlap between these two leagues in particular. (Not that MLB never makes odd decisions…)

    1. Teams have input, but my understanding based on what Ballpark Digest and Baseball America have reported is that MLB is driving this bus, and if MLB decrees that the Nats are going to be affiliated with the Yakutat Runway Bears, then that’s the way it is.

      Now re-read that aloud in a Walter Cronkite voice…

      In all seriousness, this is why I keep deferring to Sao on this because I think he’s right. We have to accept that whatever happens, it’s going to be because of some concern or facet that’s going to be more important to MLB or the MiLB operat..er, franchisee than it is to the fans.

  8. There is actually some Nats’ personnel news. The Nats added Yasel Atuna and Joan Adon to their 40 man roster to protect those players from the Rule V draft. The Nats roster only sits at 33 right now, and a number of Nats that were previously on the 40 man are eligible to be picked up by another team, including Raudy Read and Israel Pineda.

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