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Prospect Digest Ranks the Top 10 Nationals Prospects

May 6, 2020

Yesterday, ProspectDigest.com released the last of its Top 10’s for 2020 – the Washington Nationals:

  1. Carter Kieboom, IF (2)
  2. Luis Garcia, IF (3)
  3. Jackson Rutledge, RHP
  4. Seth Romero, LHP (4)
  5. Andry Lara, RHP
  6. Mason Denaburg, RHP (6)
  7. Tim Cate, LHP (7)
  8. Israel Pineda, C (9)
  9. Jeremy De La Rosa, OF
  10. Wil Crowe, RHP

In a word: meh (hence the picture).

What strikes me the most is how incumbency appears to have shaped this list: Victor Robles, last year’s #1, graduates so Kieboom and Garcia (nos. 2 and 3) climb up one rung.

But then Seth Romero, who didn’t throw a pitch in a game that counted last summer, stays put. So does Mason Denaburg, who didn’t pitch in a game that counted in 2018… and probably wishes he hadn’t in 2019 (7.52/5.23/1.82 in a whopping 20⅓ IP).

And Israel Pineda, who regressed massively on offense from 2018 to 2019, moves up a spot?

Look, I get that “the Jaguars” have high ceilings (one higher than the other, but that’s another story). But at some point, you have to shit or get off the pot.

Maybe one or both of them will get healthy and live up to their reputations. But I’d put more money on Cate or Crowe pitching for the big club… and sooner.

Ultimately, the reason I pass this along is the scouting reports. Take a look at them. They jive with what I’ve personally seen and are not the milquetoast that we usually get from MLB Pipeline or the Pollyanna from Baseball America.

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11 Commments

  1. Jeff says:
    May 6, 2020 at 9:58 am

    Amazing how the hippie crowd ends up decades later pushing
    High end products …
    One thing is for certain as we head further into AI worship as a culture .. baseball will be played out in computer programs narrated by pro players ..

  2. Todd Boss says:
    May 6, 2020 at 11:35 am

    So, here’s the last few years of Prospect Digest/Joseph Werner top 10 lists:

    2020: http://www.prospectdigest.com/2020/05/05/washington-nationals-top-10-prospects-for-2020/
    2019: http://www.prospectdigest.com/2019/03/15/washington-nationals-top-10-prospects-for-2019/
    2018: http://www.prospectdigest.com/2018/03/07/washington-nationals-top-10-prospects-for-2018/
    2017: http://www.prospectdigest.com/2017/02/26/washington-nationals-top-10-prospects-for-2017/

    Year after Year, I find issues with his list. this year?
    – Romero way too high
    – Crowe too low; but he didn’t even have Crowe on his list last year when most other shops had him in the 3-5 range.
    – last year he had Tetreault #6 but dumped him out of top 10 … but then kept Pineda despite his step back and kept Romero and Denaburg really high despite zero performance?
    – antuna completely dumped out of top 10.
    – jeremy De La Rosa in his top 10? really? Slash line in GCL last year: .232/.343/.366. You’re telling me that you rate De La Rosa over Antuna, or Mendoza, or Eddy Yean (as long as we’re projecting out crazy young players), or Cronin (who *tore up* the low minors last year)?

  3. KW says:
    May 6, 2020 at 12:50 pm

    Yes, interesting scouting reports, and a little bizarre actual ranking. And no Drew Mendoza. I don’t know yet whether he’s any great shakes, but if we’re ranking Pineda and De La Rosa for managing to be young while they sucked, then shouldn’t Mendoza get a least a little credit for not completely sucking while not completely young.

    I’m still not convinced by the universal love for Garcia. OPB .280, 4 HRs, 3% walk rate, 79 wRC+. I’m glad that he’s young enough that all the gurus still think he’ll turn into something, but there are some pretty rose-colored lenses in those glasses.

    More realistic on Crowe here than elsewhere. I completely buy him as a fringy 5th starter. On Romero, I floated the idea on Todd’s site that the Nats think seriously about going on and moving him to the ‘pen. He’ll turn 25 next April and probably just be starting A+ level. You can move up a lot quicker in the ‘pen with pure stuff than you can trying to develop into a starter, and there’s always been the lingering suggestion that he’ll end up in the ‘pen anyway.

    Sounds like a fine line between good and potentially great for Rutledge, which isn’t surprising considering his size and “repeatable delivery” issues. But at least he has a high potential upside, compared to so many of the others.

    1. Will says:
      May 7, 2020 at 1:33 pm

      There’s a lot of negativity here regarding de la Rosa. As I’ve come to his defense in the past, I’ll do so again here.

      Let’s start off by acknowledging he was one of 21 17 year olds in the GCL. There were 250 other hitters older than him. That alone is noteworthy.

      Secondly, this is his first glimpse of professional baseball. Even literal prodigies, like Soto, took time to find his swing. He batted a “mere” .303/.313/.500 in his first 17 games, then took off hitting .350/.409/.500 in his next 16.
      de la Rosa had a similar adjustment period. But since he isn’t the second coming of Babe Ruth, the numbers weren’t so spectacular, but still very encouraging.
      As I’ve pointed out before and I see Prospect Digest has also picked up on, in the first “half” of his season, he wasn’t good, and hit .132/.283/.132, but then something clicked, and in the second “half” of his season, he hit .318/.396/.568. (You might notice those numbers are better than Soto’s.)
      Unfortunately, he was only able to play 26 games. But any player that can put up a near 1.000 OPS over two weeks, while playing above average defense is a really interesting player. When they do it as one of the youngest players in all of professional baseball, you really take notice.

      Sure, he’s still super far off from featuring in the majors. But that’s also a distinct advantage over other players like Crowe. de la Rosa is 8(!!!!) years younger than Crowe. At age 17, de la Rosa already has a longer track record of success in pro ball than Seth Romero (6 years his senior).

      What I find funny is the complaints about lack of track records from guys like de la Rosa or even Romero, and you use Mendoza as a counter example. He is a 1B with no defensive value, who at age 21 hit 4 HR and slugged .383! Talk about no track record. Meanwhile, de la Rosa “sucked” by slugging .017 points lower…

  4. Mark L says:
    May 6, 2020 at 3:53 pm

    I definitely laughed when they called Romero a ‘toddler’. Any list that has Romero and Denaburg as Top 10 can’t be taken too seriously but I loved the writups.

  5. Andrew says:
    May 6, 2020 at 8:23 pm

    Seth RoWho?

  6. Pilchard says:
    May 7, 2020 at 11:36 am

    Romero is a popular target here.

    I know that he is a knothead, but if he matures, realize that’s a big IF (but he appears to have kept himself out of trouble for almost two years now), he is a 6-3 240 pound lefty that has a FB in the mid-90s, a hard-sharp slider and an advanced change up. He has command over all three pitches. Other than Rutledge, no other pitcher in the organization has that kind of talent. No question that there are others in the organization who have not found trouble and performed well at times (e.g, Crowe and Cate), but again other Rutledge, none of them have the ability to be anything other than back-end rotation starters or middle relievers.

    Romero is one strike away from being out of baseball, but he also has the arm to be an elite MLB pitcher, which why he remains on prospect lists despite injury and transgressions.

    1. Mark L says:
      May 7, 2020 at 1:18 pm

      We’ve talked about this before, but everyone matures after 3-4 years so you have figure Romero has improved that way. But how much?
      When the Nats drafted him, his maturity level was that of a 14 year old.

  7. KW says:
    May 7, 2020 at 11:50 am

    As longtime readers know, I HATED the Romero pick even BEFORE they made it. So I don’t say this as any kind of Romero defender whatsoever. That stated, by the standards of pure talent, he may in fact be the fourth “best” player in the Nats’ severely depleted system. In fact, since I’m not yet convinced that Garcia is much more than the next Difo, Romero might be #3 in terms of talent.

    All of that said, has he done ANYTHING as a pro to warrant a high ranking? Heck no. Plus this is a huge lost year for him age-wise, as it is for a number of aging Nat prospects. If Romero could have done the A+/AA two-step in 2020 at age 24, he’d have basically been back on track, age-appropriate-wise. Instead, he’ll probably turn 25 at the beginning of the 2021 season and just be starting A+, with virtually no pro experience under his belt.

    The lost season (if it’s completely lost) will greatly reduce the margin of error for aging prospects, Romero included. Most prospects, even very good ones, have a period when they struggle, leaving them more time than expected at one or more levels.

    What to do? The two options I see with Romero specifically are either move him to the bullpen or trade him. Clearly, the prospect gurus remain high on his talent, which props up his trade value, at least theoretically. But once he actually takes the mound, if he has any struggles combined with his age, that value will go right out the window.

  8. Pilchard says:
    May 7, 2020 at 3:10 pm

    KW,

    Remember that you hated the Romero pick from the start.

    That said, that draft class has been weak so far (only 6 of the first 100 picks have played in an MLB game), and only Keston Hiura (Brewers – picked before Romero) has made even a minimal impact. With the exception of Jays top prospect Nate Pearson (picked 28th – 3 picks after Romero), there is no one selected in the 10 picks after Romero who looks to be difference-making MLB player. Romero has difference-making talent (and perhaps a 10 cent brain). I can see with the 25th pick (it’s not like the Nats wasted a top 10 pick) why Romero was worth the risk as he has top 10 talent. We shall see. If not for the fact there likely will be no MILB played this year, this would be a make or break year for Romero.

    1. KW says:
      May 8, 2020 at 8:24 am

      With Romero, when his college teammates start beating him up, and the coach sides with the guys beating him up . . .

      Hiura was actually my “draft crush” that year, so I guess I focused on the right guy for once. There was a little thought that he might drop to Nats pick territory due to a combination of injuries and lack of a true position, but he didn’t.

      There was a little scuttlebutt linking the Nats to the two FLA JUCOs picked after Romero, Brendon Little (who hasn’t done much) and Pearson (one of the top prospects now). I was more focused on Alex Lange out of LSU if they went for a pitcher, who has done OK, or Brent Rooker if they went with a hitter, who hit well at AAA last year and is on the cusp of the majors.

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