N.Y. Times Releases MLB's "Hit List" for MiLB in 2021
Locally, the Hagerstown Suns and Frederick Keys are among the targeted
About a month ago, MLB leaked released a proposal to contract the minors to 120 teams starting in 2021, i.e. with the next PBA agreement with the NAPBL. Yesterday, the N.Y. Times released what even its genteel writers are calling “the hit list.”
Some of the proposed carnage is expected – the entire Pioneer League (8 teams), nine of the ten Appalachian League teams (Pulaski, the league attendance leader, was spared), and nine of the 14 New York-Penn League teams (four of the top 5 draws, plus West Virginia, were excluded).
But some of it is surprising: The Erie Seawolves and Binghamton Rumble Ponies from the Eastern League (nos. 10 and 12 in attendance), the Jackson Generals (no. 9) and the Chattanooga lookouts (no. 5) from the Southern League, and the Frederick Keys from the Carolina League (the #1 draw in 2019). Just one of the oft-derided California League teams was listed: the Lancaster JetHawks, which plays in a 1996-built stadium, and only two from the low-revenue, low-attendance Florida State League (Daytona and Kissimmee).
Joining them locally on the chopping block are the Hagerstown Suns (not a surprise, since they’re outdrawn by HS football teams in MD, middle school teams in PA) while two other teams in the Sally were listed – the West Virginia Power (no. 12 in attendance) but also the Lexington Legends (no. 5).
I am aware that attendance is not a perfect indicator, especially since so many teams lie about it like Agent Orange (and I don’t mean Rusty Staub), but it does seem to be a common thread. But it also makes the exceptions really stand out (like Frederick, Chattanooga, and Lexington). Geography seems to explain some survivors, like the Black Bears over the Power, but is that enough to (seemingly) favor Pulaski over Frederick?
Overall, it seems odd that four AA teams, four High-A teams, and six Low-A teams are on the hit list while twelve “shorties” have been spared. The N.Y. Daily News is reporting that the Brooklyn will take the place of Binghamton. Does that mean Aberdeen will replace Frederick? West Virginia for Erie?
Like a preschool art class, it gets pretty messy pretty fast trying to figure out how this might work.
What does appear certain though, is that some lawsuits may be filed if this turns out not to be, as some believe, merely a negotiating tactic to get minor-league operators to shoulder more costs and kick back more money.
For example, as noted in a separate NYT story, the Minnesota Twins threatened to take away the team from Elizabethton (TN, pop. 14,000) if it didn’t pony up $1M to renovate the clubhouse. Lawsuits have been filed for far less, so it’s not difficult to imagine at least a dozen cites, towns, or counties filing suit over monies spent based on the promises made, express or implied.
I expect (hope) more to come out this week, especially from the boys in Durham.
I haven’t been to the Frederick stadium but it’s not that old. The Chattanooga stadium is beautiful.
The Appalachian League is just a second SS-A team for the big clubs that want them, not a bad idea.
I honestly don’t know the rest.
Forinsicane this minor league 160 purged down smells of the same greed which saw the 1994 season shut down by the owners.
Time for much other things in life to get dazzled about.
Goodbye yellow brick road ( MLB)….
Who here believes we may see some affiliates become co- ops with squads filled with players from 2 orgs??
All this Houston origin
Constriction in the minors makes one think back to when the Astros sided with Reinsdorf and King George in eliminating the Expos
Hagerstown I understand: no draw and its stadium is older than most of our readers.
Frederick is kinda shocking; its close enough to DC area that it has to have some money … newer stadium, doesn’t make sense.
I’d guess this is a negotiating tactic.
Could Frederick be a projected market in next ten years shrinking in a different manner than Hags has over decades ??
Could this mean Harrisburg eventually becomes AAA??
Brooklyn vs Bingimgton paints a new dynamic on the Empire State
I don’t think so. FredCo has actually been on a pretty steep growth trend. I expected Hagerstown to be on this list, but Frederick surprises me.
We can only hope that the reveal that this “plan” was spearheaded by the Astros — through all 30 organizations agreed to it — might help to kill it or mitigate it. I have a hard time seeing how the advanced-rookie teams will survive this purge, unless MLB can agree on something like making those teams co-ops. What hasn’t really been covered nearly as much is the proposal to cut the draft down from 40 rounds to 25 or 20 while moving it from June to August. Will that, for example, flood the collegiate wood-bat leagues with draft hopefuls?
P.S. If anyone has trouble accessing the first NYT link, this may be a good alternative:
https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2019/nov/17/across-country-minor-league-towns-face-major-league-threat/508465/
Houston you have a problem. Go lay on a shrinks black couch !!
Not surprising to see both Auburn and Hagerstown (the latter of which somehow averaged fewer than 1,000 fans per game this year, and the former didn’t do much better) on this list. And man, there are a lot of teams in places like upstate New York, western Pennsylvania, and Appalachia that used to be baseball hubs and just don’t have the critical mass anymore to support modern facilities with stable attendance.
The only real surprises on this list, to me: Frederick, Lexington, Ogden, Quad Cities, and Rocky Mountain (Colorado Springs). The rest seem, yeah, about right.
So we might see more PD play in orgs training fields. Florida and Arizona sites
I can report that Lexington, KY, also has a nice, modern stadium (opened 2001), plus it also has a larger local population than many of the others on the chopping block. In fact, I’ve always thought of it as a good candidate to be “promoted” to the Southern League (AA) at some point.
One thing that needs to be said is that we probably can all agree that there has long been considerable need for reform in the size and organization of minor league baseball. There seems little doubt about that. What we have now is the legacy of an arcane system that has existed for more than a hundred years. There are way too many levels and teams, all under-funded, with all but the “bonus baby” players also well under-compensated. Plus there is plenty of geographical insanity with where affiliates are located. Reforms are needed. The current proposal seems awfully ham-handed, though.
The shrunken total of 120 affiliates would leave only four per MLB team. The Nats currently have seven. Frankly, to me, even four levels seems like too many. Just look at the other pro sports. Most have only one or two levels of minors. They don’t employ “org guys” as filler so they can field teams. The MiLB system continues to exist in large part because of the local ownership of most of the affiliates, so the MLB teams basically just provide them with players to sell as entertainment. The Nats weren’t being asked/expected to finance a new stadium in Woodbridge; it was the taxpayers of Prince William County.
Most other sports do not have the same developmental cycle as baseball. The average age of a rookie in MLB is 24.4 for hitters and 25.3 for pitchers.
In the NFL it’s 21.7. In NBA it’s 20.3 (in fact the average age of the Nuggets entire roster last year was 24.72, which is the age of the average ROOKIE in MLB!!). In NHL it’s 20.
As a result, it is clear that MLB needs to invest more in player development than other sports. MLB owners, though, don’t want to have to foot the bill for this development, and have criminally underpaid players and teams, and now cry that the developmental system is broken. Of course it’s broken, because they broke it by refusing to invest any money in it for the past 100 years!
Is the minor league system bloated? Yes, but is the solution to take a page from the corporate sector and lop off 25% of business operations? No. Baseball, despite owners’ claims to the contrary, is NOT a business. Owners are granted anti-business laws (Antitrust Exemption, “Save America’s Pastime Act”), that allow them to not have to operate like any other business. Baseball is the Nation’s Pastime, and should be treated as such: a service that provides Americans access to the nation’s pastime. Until legislators decide to remove this privileged legal status, owners and MLB need to recognize that their public obligations.
Also, essentially abolishing competitive baseball in entire states (Tennessee is losing 6 teams!) is not an intelligent way to grow interest in a sport.
There’s been no reporting I’ve seen tying this plan to Manfred’s oft-expressed desire to expand. That being said, Nashville looks like as good a candidate as any to get its own major league team. That would take some of the sting out of contraction in places like Johnson City and Jackson.
Good Intel, Will.
MLB was always extremely skeptical of leaving development to college baseball. That all should have changed at least by the ’80s when colleges produced Bonds, Clemens, Frank Thomas, Will Clark, et al. But it didn’t. And in fact the system remains so screwed up that you have to spend a lot more money to sign a top high schooler than you do a more-developed — and more weeded out — top collegian.
Also, are baseball players really not ready for the majors until 24/25, or are there just not enough MLB openings for the guys who are mostly ready? Certainly there is more attrition at the age back end in the NFL and NHL than there is in MLB. That trend is changing a bit as a number of teams have leaned toward the cheaper, “controllable” talent at the younger end.
But there’s always been a lot of bloat in pro baseball. There’s no reason on Earth for a 40-round draft, other than to stock systems with a lot of guys with no chance at the majors (and it was 60 rounds until somewhat recently). The NFL is down to seven rounds (with twice as many players on its rosters as MLB), and the NBA to only two, with only first-round money guaranteed.
Yes, there’s a fair amount of development still needed for players to be MLB-ready, even among top college players. But you don’t need seven levels to do it. I’ve been to plenty of games at Potomac where there probably wasn’t a major-leaguer on the field for either team, certainly not anyone better than a AAAA type who might get a few cups of coffee. There was nothing being “developed” there, other than income for the Silber family. And when a Robles or a Soto has come through town, it’s very evident that this one guy is a cut above the others. Yes, there are the Michael Taylors and Steven Souzas who spin their wheels for a while before finding traction, but both of those were high school draftees.
Did the Nats need all these levels/years/dollars to “develop” Carter Kieboom? Let’s say he had followed brother Spencer’s trail to Clemson instead. As it happens, Clemson has, in almost the same time frame as Carter would have been there, produced an outstanding young hitter in Seth Beer. Ol’ Seth was so good that he was destroying AA in his first full pro season . . . before getting included in the Greinke deal and struggling at AA with the Snakes. But my point is that he came out of college essentially ready for AA, and the Astros had almost no sunk developmental costs on him.
What about the Latin players? Well, that’s a whole different can of worms. It’s nuts to be signing them at 16 anyway, the age of a high school sophomore. It’s nuts that there’s no draft and that it’s still the Wild, Wild West as to who gets to sign whom. The “answer” probably involves academies funded by MLB, not by individual teams like the Nats have.
There are no “easy” answers. And I’m not going to defend the sham amateurism that allows colleges to exploit players in all the revenue-generating sports, or the arm-shredding college coaches who are still out there ruining careers to pad their records. But I think baseball would be better served — including minor league fans — by a contracted minor-league system that featured a lot of quality at every level.