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Offseason Update: Sept. 14, 2019

Fifty-one weeks ago, the big club was eliminated from the N.L. East. Last night, with the team’s ace pitching, they were shut out, 5-0 to reduce the tragic number to six.

Even if they had won, we all know the gap is just too damn big to close. As hot as the big club has been, the Barves have basically kept pace. You can trot out all the bromides about pride, but for the next 15 games the Nats are playing for the wild card. Period. Full stop.

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
I bring this up not because the big club is all there is to talk about right now, but because a certain GM has presided over Washington for more than a decade. He has been stuck on third base, where he was born, yet to have a player he has drafted in the second round or later make it DC and contribute for a significant period of time.

At some point, the failure of the Washington Nationals to play on October 13 or later has to blamed on the GM. He inherited two #1 overall picks. He’s had six managers in 11 seasons, twice choosing one with no managerial experience and letting one with 22 years experience go after 192 wins in two seasons. He couldn’t build a bullpen if you gave him a hammer, nails, plywood, and a steer.

Somehow, he’s managed to hide behind the myth that he’s handcuffed by the “luxury tax” and the Lerners’ parsimony, never mind that the Nats have had a Top 10 payroll for the past three seasons (including this one). He’s made a few shrewd trades early (Wilson Ramos, Tanner Roark) but lately, he’s given away more talent than he’s gotten back. Even if you give him credit for cleaning up after Bowden in the Dominican and producing Juan Soto and Victor Robles, does that offset everything else?

THE STATE FOF THE NATIONALS FARM
That’s the question for the owners to answer because this offseason is Rizzo’s last before his contract is up. This is related to the farm because it’s still pretty clear that Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia will be counted on as either replacements or trade chips, as Anthony Rendon is almost certainly not returning and Stephen Strasburg very well might.

As noted in the comments, there does appear to be some new candidates for the back of the rotation in Wil Crowe, Mario Sanchez, and perhaps even Andrew Lee. Jacob Condra-Bogan and Frankie Bartow have also emerged as possible contenders to fill the gaps in the bullpen while a trio of lefties (Carson Teel, Nick Raquet, and Tim Cate) showed promise in High-A.

Beyond the aforementioned position players, there are handful of longshots – Cole Freeman as a potential late-bloomer and maybe Jakson Reetz, especially if Spencer Kieboom’s injury turns out to be worse than they’ve let on (because that never happens with the Nationals, right). Nick Banks might be in the mix, too, but he could also be the next Jake Noll. Alas, only Garcia and Cate are younger than the league average (see previous parenthetical).

Overall, things are looking better than a year ago, if only because Rizzo did minimal damage in July.

DSL NATIONALS
About the best thing you can say about the 2019 D-Nats is they were young. The hitters were a shade younger than the league average (17.5 vs. 17.7) and the pitchers were significantly younger (17.8 vs. 18.3). However, this was also true a year ago, and that team finished at .500. This year’s team started with seven straight losses and finished 20 games under at 22-42.

The offense was 42nd out of 45 teams, about 3/4 a run below the league average, while the pitching was 36th and nearly a full run worse. Thus, all we can really say is what’s in the box scores, and that’s always problematic, never mind the small sample size.

Without further ado, the Top 5’s:

TOP 5 BATS TOP 5 ARMS
1. Raymi Gomez, LF/RF
.271 GPA, 5HR, 32RBI		 1. Ronni Montero, RHSP
2.36/3.80/1.29, 1HR in 42IP
2. Daniel Marte, CF
.252 GPA, 5HR, 9-3B, .448 SLG		 2. Bernardo Hiraldo, RHSP
4.86/3.11/1.45, 1.17 BB/9IP
3. Angel Geraldo, 2B/SS/3B
.236 GPA, 30RBI		 3. Manuel De La Rosa, RHRP
6.27/3.58/1.21, 10.1 K/9IP
4. Christopher De La Cruz, 1B/LF/CF
.233 GPA, 14SB, 2CS		 4. Kevin Rodriguez, RHRP
2.67/3.87/1.39, 10.4 K/9IP
5. Yoander Rivero, SS/2B
.230 GPA, 23BB, 9E		 5. Bryan Caceres, RHRP
4.11/3.81/1.51, 0HR in 35IP

An honorable mention goes to Ivan Murzi, who split time with several catchers which limited his ABs. No such luck for the pitchers, as the five above were the only five who had who FIPs below 4.00. Folks interested in seeing the full team’s statistics can find them here.

35 Commments

        1. I was not naming Vazquez in that yoke comment but what an interesting soap opera. Crick and Felipe fight in locker room. Crick gets jettisoned. Felipe gets busted in Florida. Does this date back to Tampa Rays days ??

        2. One and the same . Hearn is damaged goods in Texas chain like most Ranger arms end up being. Bourne is bye bye. Those two cans up sane pace

        3. Luke my dog looks like yours since August 31 in that Sept 14 post. The only thing that gets him excited lately is to patrol his territory for one and two. …

  2. And Dombrowski is on the loose.
    Marte. 9 triples with 5 HRs. Maybe some of those 9 HRs were near miss taters ??
    What was up with Fedde yesterday.

    1. I’m a little puzzled about Carter Kieboom and the Nats future plans for him.
      Why wouldn’t you call up your #1 prospect in September? Yes, I understand the Nats are in a must win situation and that Carter may have nothing to contribute but wouldn’t you want him sitting on the bench watching and learning from other MLB players? Is he a future infielder with the Nationals or will he be traded away over the winter for a veteran player?
      Thanks Luke for your insight on the current GM. I couldn’t agree more!

      1. I claim no special knowledge, but it sure seems to me like the Nats have lost confidence in Kieboom for whatever reason. Not bringing him up makes very little sense.

        1. Kieboom wasn’t brought up because he wasn’t going to play for the Nats down the stretch, they didn’t want to increase his service time, and the Nats felt it would be better to get reps in West Palm Beach.

      2. I would venture a guess after the curtain drops heavy on the stage as the fat lady sings the final note .. after brass has its org meetings … the blowback from players reviews from the farm should some favorable reviews on many including some surprises. That’s for another day .
        Wow Yaz grandson hit tater 20 @ Fenway

    2. Luke , or whomever. Would the Lerner’s allow the clean up hitter and statistical 2019 staff ace to walk further opening up the yearly salary budget ??

    3. I’ll tell you what was up with Fedde. He was doing a great job as a starter for Scherzer and then they put him in the bullpen. Prior to yesterday, he had only thrown two innings (scoreless) since August 18. Then yesterday they scurry to get him warmed up when Rodney imploded. A pitcher has to pitch.

  3. Hi Luke,
    Just curious, where do you find the FIP for the minor league pitchers? Didn’t see it in the Baseball Reference link you had. Based on the stats in that it looked like Jose Cedeno had better stats than most of the listed pitchers plus he was only 17.

  4. “He’s had six managers in 11 seasons, twice choosing one with no managerial experience and letting one with 22 years experience go after 192 wins in two seasons.”

    If I’m not mistaken, hasn’t it been the Lerners who have made the decision on which manager to hire? They’ve consistently underpaid all managers, even the “great” Dusty Baker. Rizzo wanted to keep Dusty but was overruled by the Lerners, no?

    “as Anthony Rendon is almost certainly not returning and Stephen Strasburg very well might.”

    And you’ve heard this from truly credible sources, right? No one, and I mean NO ONE, except Anthony Rendon knows what Rendon will do. The Nats could offer him a billion dollars to stay, but it’s entirely up to him to decide whether to re-sign or not. You can’t blame Rizzo or the Lerners for something that HAS NOT HAPPENED yet. And even if Rendon decides to sign somewhere else this offseason, you can’t blame Rizzo. He’s not the one that operates the purse-strings.

    As for Strasburg, my opinion is that he’d be a fool to opt out. A guaranteed 4yr/$100million contract?! On a team that (hopefully) will continue to be in the playoff picture the next couple of years (with or without Rendon)? Most teams that have the money to match/better his current contract won’t be ready to contend for the playoffs next year. And Stras doesn’t seem to me to be the kind of guy that just wants the money (neither, really, is Rendon).

    If the Nats can make the wildcard game (and win), and somehow win the first round of the NLDS, then I expect both Rendon and Stras to stay. If they miss out on the WC and/or lose the WC game or NLDS series, then all bets are off. Either way, I don’t think you can blame Rizzo if they do.

    1. The decision on which manager the Nats hired is ultimately attributable to GM, i.e. Rizzo. People certainly like to blame the Lerners and give him that out. I am not so charitable.

      While you’re right that only Anthony Rendon knows for sure, that’s why I wrote “almost certainly” which is not the same as “definitely.” If you’re giving Rizzo credit for acquiring Rendon, you have to give him some degree of blame for letting him walk. Throwing your hands up and saying he’s blameless is specious at best.

      I would also agree that it would be stupid for the Strasburg to opt out, but as the article noted, he *could* and that is also attributable to the GM, as he ultimately agreed to that in the course of negotiations. Again, that is far less of possibility (hence “very well might”) and if Strasburg does do it, the CW is that he will do so in order to renegotiate better terms

      Ultimately, my distaste for Rizzo is how he’s gutted the farm to cover for his mistakes, of which he’s never admitted and which are more numerous than the toothless beat writers have been willing to point out.

      1. How can the firing of Dusty be on Rizzo if Rizzo wanted to extend his contract and Lerners refused?

        How can the decision to not hire Bud Black be on Rizzo if the Lerners were the ones that low-balled him?

        Bryce Harper is not on the Nats (so, the Nats are no longer benefitting from getting the top pick), and the decision to get nothing in return is on the Lerners, Rizzo had a deal with Astros in place.

        8 winning seasons in a row. Hard to do.

        1. I’d love to see a link or article that unequivocally states these assertions and attributes them directly to Rizzo before the fact and not after. It seems awfully convenient to be able to attribute every wrong turn to the ownership, not unlike the guy who never shows up because “his wife won’t let him.”

          1. Lerners and Bud Black: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/11/03/after-bud-black-negotiations-leave-the-nationals-shifting-to-dusty-baker-the-lerner-family-has-a-fiasco-on-its-hands/
            Lerners and refusing to trade Harper: https://climbingtalshill.com/2019/02/14/astros-confirm-bryce-harper-nearly-acquired-2018/
            Lerners firing Dusty Baker: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2017/10/20/dusty-baker-fired-nationals/785731001/

            Are you really contending that any of this wasn’t already known?

          2. No, I’m disputing the implication that Rizzo publicly opposed these moves ***before*** they were vetoed by the Lerners. These links do not support that contention.

            Hey, I get it. Some folks believe Mike Rizzo can do no wrong and any mistake he may make is not his fault; it’s the Lerners’. We’re not going to agree on this point, so as others noted, we may as well move on.

          3. The requested links:
            Lerners nixing the Harper trade:
            https://climbingtalshill.com/2019/02/14/astros-confirm-bryce-harper-nearly-acquired-2018/
            Lerners firing Dusty:
            https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2017/10/20/dusty-baker-fired-nationals/785731001/
            Lerners bungling the Bud Black hiring:
            https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/11/03/after-bud-black-negotiations-leave-the-nationals-shifting-to-dusty-baker-the-lerner-family-has-a-fiasco-on-its-hands/

        1. I appreciate that and thank you for the comment. I know I can’t please everyone and I’m certain to ruffle some feathers, but I try hard to not make any of this personal.

  5. I love Rizzo (being Italian as i am doesn’t hurt), but even i have to admit the proof is in the pudding and like Luke said, given all the (high) picks, franchise players, and nearly unlimited financial resources he’s had to play with and still no championship after all these years and it’s almost impossible he survives this offseason should they not win again (most likely).

  6. An under-the-radar interesting decision the Nats will face this offseason involves some guys we have followed here for a long time. Fedde, Ross, and Voth are all out of options after this year. Now, it’s possible that Stras opts out and they have two openings in the rotation, but for this argument, I’ll assume that Stras stays and they only have one. Who would you pick? And what do they do with the other two? Logic would dictate that they try to get something for them in trade, but recent past history with A. J. Cole didn’t follow logic at all and left them getting nothing for him.

    In this case, I’m all in on Team Voth. His overall MLB stats this season are far better than those of the other two, plus he posted a heck of a start on Saturday in the heat of a pennant race. Ross and Fedde have both had some good moments/solid starts with the big club this season, but they’ve each also had some very painful outings. They’re still waiting for the 22-year-old pre-injury version of Ross to reemerge, but I’m not sure he ever will. With Fedde, I’ve always been a skeptic, dating back to when he was drafted. He was another in a long line of Nat picks where Rizzo and Co. tried to act like they were smarter than everyone else. Well, he’ll turn 27 this offseason, he’s out of options, and his K/9 is a lowly 4.92 with an ugly WHIP of 1.51. Fedde also hasn’t done well at all in relief, and his low K rate doesn’t argue in his favor in a bullpen role. Ross’s slider has always seemed to make him a good relief candidate, but frankly, he may have more trade value than he does actual value from the ‘pen.

    If it’s me, I’m trading Fedde and Ross and planning to keep Voth as a fifth starter or swingman.

    1. Assuming that Stras doesn’t opt out, and the Nats don’t sign a FA to be the 5th starter, then I’m leaning towards having Voth be the #5. Part of me would like for the Nats to keep Ross on as the #6 (be it in Harrisburg or Fresno), mainly because he had a good stretch there late in the summer of pitching really well after knocking off some of that post-TJ rust.

      As for Fedde … meh. I wouldn’t mind seeing him play for another organization. Time to cut him loose. He’s had a number of chances to prove he’s worthy of a 40-man roster spot and while he’s had a flash or two of good pitching, he’s had more duds.

      1. for the last few years I have thought Voth could be the new Craig Stammen. might be more valuable there than as a fifth starter

  7. Rizzo has indeed traded away most of the Nats’ best prospects in recent years. He has done so in a successful attempt to keep the Nats contenders for the post-season every year since 2012. When a team has a chance for the post-season, it must grab it with both hands, even if it means trading away guys who might never succeed at the next level for veteran guys who can help the team. That said, I agree that drafting and player development have been wanting during Rizzo’s tenure. But, how many consistently successful GMs are there? Cashman, Billy Bean, and Chaim Bloom come to mind. Dombrowski spends big and denudes his farm system, but takes his teams to the WS. Luhnow has built a powerhouse in Houston, and Epstein broke 2 legendary failure streaks. The Lerners could get Dombrowski if they can Rizzo, but Bloom would be a better choice. He wins consistently with a minimal budget, relying on his farm system.

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