The Preliminary 2019 Watchlist

59 Commments

1. Where’s Austin Davidson?

   1. Davidson, along with Yadiel Hernandez should be considered the top sleepers again I s’pose?

      1. Hybernaters because they will be Grizzlies who hybernare in winter.

         1. Hybernate.
            Gomes and Suzuki backstops 2019???
            If Taylor traded then Harper comes back for one year ??

2. Tetreault is a righty, Dragmire is a free agent, and Seth Romero is out for the year. Otherwise, good list.

3. Luke, thanks for taking the time to do this again this year. I guess we know what you were up to in your spare time at the beach this Thanksgiving! Below are some inputs for your consideration in no particular order.
   1. A. Hernandez is listed as a RH pitcher. Assume this is supposed to be Alfonso Hernandez who I believe is LH.
   2. Tetreault is listed as a LH pitcher, he is RH.
   3. Dragmire is listed under Notable Arms. He is not listed under any of the Nats minor league rosters and with 8 minor league seasons under his belt I believe he may be a minor league free agent. Even if he’s not a minor league free agent, not sure he’s good enough to be listed at his advanced age.
   4. It looks like you tried to balance out the numbers listed for each infield spot as 3 each, which makes sense. Would recommend considering D. Hernandez as a 3B instead of 2B (he played 29 games at 3B and 28 at 2B) in place of Pogue who only had a 710 OPS as a 22 y.o. at GCL last year. You could then list Freeman (725 OPS as a 23 y.o. at L-A) or Marinconz (714 OPS as a 22 y.o. at NYP) at 2B instead.
   5. Would recommend including Kyle Johnston who is listed as the No. 20 prospect on MLB.com and pitched at both L-A and H-A as a 21 y.o. last year with pretty decent s.o. rates.
   6. Don’t know that Strom deserves to be listed. He was 21 at GCL last year with a high ERA and WHIP and a low s.o. rate.
   7. I can understand the rationale for including Ryan Williamson since even though he was only at GCL as a 23 y.o. he showed great progress in recovering from past injuries. But if include him I would also consider including Andrew Lee who was also recovering from injuries and had a great s.o. rate as a 24 y.o. at L-A.
   8. It’s splitting hair with small sample sizes, but for a young 2017 drafted outfielder I would recommend Connell over Senior. Connell was 19 and made it to NYP with an overall 662 OPS while Senior was 20 at GCL with a 676 OPS.
   9. If you’re going to include Sagdal I would definitely include Davidson. Both were 25 and in search of a position; but Davidson had a higher OPS playing most of the year at AA than Sagdal who spent the whole year at H-A.

   1. Thanks for the detailed feedback. I definitely missed on some of the details. TBH, I think I may need to shave down the notables some more and cull the guys who don’t have to register for Selective Service. Davidson, for those wondering, was a notable last year and I don’t do repeat selections.

      1. Luke I bring up the fact that there are some interesting names coming off a dandy DSL offensive club . Arias truly earned an invite to instrux camp. B Fernandez might make it to mainland sooner than we think.
         Time will tell how brass lumps the talent in Harrisburg close to D.C. Vs far far away in Fresno. Case in point : CarterK who could use a few months in AAA since the timetable has probably already been determined. Harrisburg could get by with Montesario, Masters , Meijia , Garcia , Corredor. Lara and KJ Williams should brew in PotNats spring .

      2. Luke. We look forward to your Hot Stove league / Vegas Winter Meetibgs coverage and analysis with all your moles. Lol

4. Luke, it’s your list and your concept, and Austin Davidson will turn 26 in January, but I’d give him a (still-slim but) better chance of making the majors than anyone currently listed at 1B, 2B, or 3B . . . which were all positions where he appeared in 2018, in addition to LF.

   . . . and Yadiel Hernandez is five years older than Davidson, but he was one of the most “Notable Bats” in the organization in 2018. Certainly hard to consider him a “prospect,” though.

   I was never a fan of the Cole Freeman pick, and he didn’t exactly excel in 2018, but I’m still surprised to see a 4th rounder already banished from the island.

   I agree that Kyle Johnston probably did enough to be on the list. I think the organization will give a lot of chances to Stoeckinger and Troop, but if you don’t think they did enough in 2018 to make the list, well, A) I wouldn’t argue, but B) Seth Romero would be stricken for the same justification (or moved to the “Notorious Arms” category, or perhaps the more inclusive “Dangling Arms.”)

   A LHP who should still be on the list:
   Nelson Galindez. Yes, he struggled at Auburn, but at age 19. I would not be surprised to see him pushed on to Hagerstown.

   My $0.02. YMMV.

   1. It’s also worth remembering that the penultimate CBA changed how teams 4th through 10th rounds, where teams have been focusing on college seniors and then banking the savings for later rounds. A 23-y.o. (i.e. someone nearly two years older than league average) from an elite collegiate program should dominate in Low-A vs. barely exceeding league average (.725 OPS vs. .694). There was certainly no one blocking Freeman in Potomac. I’m not alone in this assessment as he is unranked by both BA and MLB. Plus, I did get a look at him this summer and was not that impressed.

      1. FWIW, Davidson has frequently appeared on FanGraphs’ Carson Cistulli’s Fringe Five, which has been remarkably successful at identifying overlooked prospects. A sort of alternative prospect list. Cistulli just got hired by the Jays to assist in scouting.

         I think Davidson’s biggest hindrance is the Nats just don’t value him for whatever reason. He got off to a slow start in 2014/15, and seemingly was permanently removed from the prospect track by Nats’ brass. All he’s done since, though, is hit. If the Nats were more aggressive with him, he’d very likely be rated in prospect circles, but wallowing away in Potomac for three seasons rightly dampens enthusiasm.

         1. There’s also the matter of his defense—think Jose Vidro, but with bigger eyebrows—which could be remedied by hiding him at 1st or LF but for some reason that idea hasn’t occurred to the Nats, either.

            I was aware of Cistulli’s mancrush but think I may have missed his hiring by Toronto. That is one way to silence second-guessers

            1. Davidson did play numerous games at 1st and left for Harrisburg in 2018. He did play some 2nd base, but made an error early in the season and didn’t play there again.

            2. But he also spent nearly as much time as the DH. He also only played 94 games, 21 of which he made one or no plate appearances. Perhaps all he has done is hit, but it would appear that the Nats agree that’s all he should do.

   2. KW. Banished from the island. Double meaning. Especially not reaching City Isle

   3. Time for Cole Freeman with his speed and playing for our favorite small ball manager, Keister, to play some OF since Esthay , Canning and hoo-who?? targeted for Potomac?? G. Lara and Meregildo could play some LF??
      Love the Max Schrock idea, Gil!

5. No Barrera or Gushue on the catcher watch list?

   1. Barrera is a notable bat. Gushue is not very good at baseball.

      1. Gushue dropped off because his power, patience, and production fell off considerably. Yes, his defense is good, but glove-first catchers are relatively common. Barrera is indeed a notable bat at this point–which to remind folks is shorthand for position player–but I have my reservations about him at the next level.

         1. No wonder PITT made that trade in the first place.
            This is a no brainer…bring back Hunter Jones to patrol CF in Harrisburg with Sundberg, Banks and whoever does not get Rule 5 minor league portioned.
            Greetings from 57F Redondo Beach, CA. palm tree trunks all trimmed with lights !

6. A couple more names to throw into consideration:

   Gilbert Lara and KJ Harrison, acquired in the deal for Gio, and understandably overlooked. Harrison is a catcher/1B/DH, but is still only 22. Very much a wildcard, but was drafted last year in the 3rd round, so shouldn’t have graduated off a list like this yet.
   I’m not a fan of Lara, but others are and apparently he’s got tools, but just needs to learn how to piece them all together. He also turned 21 a few days ago, so should still be under consideration, especially with the dearth at SS.

   Jhon Romero a RHP acquired for Kintzler. 23 years old in AA, and strikes out well over 1 batter per inning, and not a control headcase like many hard throwers that have come before him.

   Jacob Condra-Bogan a RHP acquired for Goodwin. Another hard thrower, apparently touching triple digits. Had a weird entry to professional baseball, but he’ll be a quick riser.

   Andrew Karp 6th round pick RHP was solid in a short glimpse in 2018.

   Carson Shaddy Cole Freeman’s clone. Given our MIF dearth, I’d include both players.

   Evan Lee a LHP was given a bonus along with lefties Fletcher and Teel after the 10th round. Lee’s summer was cut short due to extended use in Arkansas’ deep CWS run, but should be looking to impress this Spring.

7. Wow!!! Great comments!! Great work! But where is Jeff? And where are the bulldogs?

   1. April will be interesting to see how Nats seed the Potomac roster
      since so many graduating to City Isle and a thin corp coming up from Hags. Does this mean that Nats try guys like Freeman, Meregildo and G. Lara in the outfield? Thats why maybe they should see who could hopscotch up from Auburn : Shaddy, Oconner, Marinconz, Daily, TUNA?

8. Waht about Jackson Reetz?

   1. He has a good chance of backing up whichever catcher gets the call from Hagerstown.

      1. Exhibit gazillion to support the sad truth that not every promising prospect can hack it at the higher levels. Once upon a time, he and a bunch of other Harrisburg Senators, Potomac Nationals, and Hagerstown Suns looked like intriguing young talents. Alas.

         1. Carter Kieboom seems a very rare HS hitter who has actually progressed in a timely manner through the Nats’ system (which one would hope for a 1st rounder with a large bonus). Reetz has stalled and seems to be going backwards. Ward looks like he may have a AAA ceiling, which Hood eventually reached (with a couple of MLB cups of coffee). Taylor crawled along to the majors but never has fully “made it.” In short, their track record with HS position players hasn’t been particularly good.

            1. That looks like a MIGHTILY successful HS graduation rate! Even if we ignore the big elephant in the room (Harper, unless you want to argue he was technically in JC) and a dozen other HS draft picks we’ve made in early rounds, 1 for 5 is an excellent return. If 25% of our non first round picks could contribute as much as Taylor has, we’d be consistently one of the best teams in baseball.

               In addition to Kieboom, Reetz, Ward, Hood and Taylor, we’ve also drafted the following HS batters in the first 5 rounds:
               Michael Burgess (miss)
               Jake Smolinski (neutral; hasn’t been good, but has played 234 big league games with a positive WAR)
               Steven Souza (hit)
               Derek Norris (hit)
               Adrien Nieto (miss, but still made the majors)
               Hayden Jennings (miss)
               Blake Perkins (TBD)

               I’ve posted about this many times before, but I really wish the Nats were more active in drafting HS talent. Reetz is a perfect example. Everyone is writing him off right now, and yet he’s still a few weeks younger than Tyler Cropley, a catcher who the Nats spent an 8th round pick on in this summer’s draft. Cropley is struggling in Auburn, while Reetz two full levels higher in Potomac. Maybe something clicks this year with Reetz? It happened with Souza and Taylor before him. Maybe it doesn’t. But as a HSer, there’s several years built in for them to struggle developmentally. With Cropley, if he doesn’t start hitting well, he’s a quick release candidate, because who wants a 23 year old that can’t hit in short-season?

            2. I don’t believe anyone here thinks drafting HS guys is bad, but when they are drafted high (in the round, [insert Seth Romero joke here]) the expectations soar and that is bad. I would also like to see the Nats take a few more chances with HS picks vs. relying solely on foreign-born players with few, if any, other options. Unfortunately, as mentioned with Freeman, the draft is no longer structured for the round number to correlate with his perceived value.

               I’d have to think that a kid who’s been told he’s the cat’s meow for almost half his life (and, increasingly, his parents who are looking for an ROI on the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ they’ve spent) taking less money and getting started sooner is too much to take, so he gambles on himself and goes to college, where he’ll also be exploited and will, logistically, have to pay to play while having very little time to do the student part of the NCAA’s student-ATHLETE chimera (this I do know a thing or two about).

               As for Reetz, I’ve seen him play for two seasons and stand by my decision to not include him. The Billy Rowell argument (“but he’s still young”) does not convince me otherwise.

            3. With the new CBA plus evolving draft strategies, you’re not seeing many high schoolers picked between the 2d/3d and 10th rounds now. Basically, only the studs are getting bought out of college commitments. The Nats took Luzardo in the 3d because of the injury but still paid him 2d-round money. (A couple of local HS guys went in the 3d round in 2016 — Khalil Lee, who has done well and made it to AA already; and Joe Rizzo, who has struggled somewhat.)

               With the Nats, it’s case by case. I liked the Kieboom and Luzardo picks but hated the Perkins one. It looked like an overdraft/overpay at the time, and he’s done nothing to change my mind. I wasn’t a fan of the Denaburg pick due to the combination of a number of good college arms available plus his injury history. I thought what they did with Watson was great — spend a late-round pick but spend your leftover bonus money on him. Connell was worth the shot in the 11th round, but he’s still somewhat struggling.

               As for the Nats’ “successes” in the past with HS picks, most have taken a long time and with multiple bumps in the road. It’s a hard road for anyone other than the most supremely talented. Some organizations have done it better than others, but those organizations likely have better support systems in place for the younger players.

               On Reetz specifically, he hasn’t hit, not even at the Severino low bar for catching prospects. He’s still young enough, relatively speaking, for the lightbulb to come on, but it had better start flickering soon.

            4. I’d venture to guess that most MLB teams don’t have a good track record when it comes to HS position players.

      2. Cruel shoes!

      3. I’m still here wishing for a prospect named Sean Murphy with the A’s. Sadly, its likely Beane would likely not let him go. He’s been taking his time developing that young catcher.

9. Oh, one more to add: Chandler Day: 2018 7th rounder from Vanderbilt. Throws only in relief, but on the young side for a college pick (will be 21 when the season starts next year). Could rise fast.

10. I think Tres Barrera should be on the catcher chart. Also Kyle Johnston should be on here. Other then that not bad.

11. I think a large part of the curiosity about Davidson — in which I’ve participated — has to do with the lack of many other hitting prospects of note in the upper minors other than C. Kieboom. (For the record, I did see Davidson a few times over his years at Potomac, where he was unusually good at squaring up the ball during nearly every AB . . . and pretty shaky squaring up balls hit to him in the field.) Anyway, the ship seems to have sailed on Marmolejos. Yet another year is upon us in which the Nats have left Drew Ward unprotected, making him look more and more like the new Matt Skole. We still have some hope for Daniel Johnson, but he really struggled in AZ for the second fall in a row. Noll also got the AZ assignment, even though his AA OPS was 159 points lower than Davidson’s. The overhyped Kelvin Gutierrez is gone. Abreu and Mejia never panned out.

    So among these slim pickings, what Davidson and Yadiel Hernandez did at the plate really stands out, regardless of how they’re seen as “prospects.” (And if I’m highlighting such guys, I should mention Alec Keller’s .823 OPS at AA, even though a corner OF with no HR power isn’t going to get a lot of love.)

    1. Yadiel is way too old to be considered a prospect. Davidson is a strange case, because he’s done nothing but hit at every level and yet the Nats don’t seem to value him much (FWIW, most independent evaluators have basically ignored him as well, and it’s quite fair to say they have a better idea of what to look for than most of us do…not to imply they are infallible, obviously).

       1. The weird thing about Hernandez is that he was 28 or 29 when they signed him, so they knew the age thing was going to be a part of the equation. He struggled during the first half of the 2017 season, but after that, all he’s done is hit, and much better than a number of guys who they have called to the majors — Stevenson, Sierra, et al. Can he hit MLB pitching? Who knows? They may keep Stevenson with the big club as a 5th OF, but right now, I’d trust Hernandez to hit better off the MLB bench than I would Stevenson.

          Davidson is a much better hitter than Matt Reynolds or Adrian Sanchez, but those guys have the 40-man spots because of their gloves. Derek Dietrich comes to mind as a comp of a bat-first utility guy who isn’t particularly good in the field, so they do exist, but there aren’t many of them. (And Dietrich is currently available after being non-tendered.)

12. Peric , Luke. The force Luke. … Gil where is your Grissom analysis ?
    maybe I will ask Dr Gupta on the jet tomorrow if there is something about Mancrushes between fans and players stats ?
    Seriously. Watchlists and the manner brass deposits players in Fresno versus Harrisburg might be revealing. Davidson and Wardcoukd hammer away in the PCL while some of the viable watchlist woo- hoos work their repetitions on City Isle .
    My eyes are tired. Half of me is still in Korea and Cozumel.
    Anybody can laugh at this. Last night I was making fun of the Orioles being so O- bysssmal with a guy who ended up being an Uncle to Dylan Buddy. Even he was laughing at himself being hard on Birds

    1. Am, I the only one here after just two cups of coffee and avoiding the dead deer on highway 1 noticing Jamori Blash DFAd by the Angels after LaStella purchase from the Cubs? Blash seems like a PCL guy anyway..Fresno fella?

    2. I wouldn’t count out the birds. If Elias comes through with a real Dominican program their stock should rise fairly rapidly. Not next season, no, but be on the look-out for the black and orange lest they sneak up on you.

13. Is no one going to mention Reyes as a potential “Notable Arm”? I’m not a fan, but he’s been somewhat of a higher-profile guy in the organization.

    1. Nope, and I continue to be mystified as to how he’s found the good graces of Nats farm evaluators. They’re clearly seeing something that no one else is. I could name half a dozen SPs at AAA and AA that I’d prefer over Reyes, and that’s saying A LOT because our pitching at those levels sucks.

       Not to mention Reyes got injured again in AFL after losing half a season already due to injury. It could spell trouble of bigger problems.

    2. Are some guys like Reyes and Baez coddled more just to justify the Latin market effort?

14. Nick Banks as a Notable Bat? Or has he already had his cameo? Right now he’s basically Wiseman without the 21 HR power.

    I’m curious about all the 2018 college OF draftees who made a decent splash in the short season: Canning, Rhinesmith, O’Connor, and Wilson. Most if not all should start 2019 in Hags. Recent org track record with college OFs hasn’t been particularly good, other than Stevenson.

    1. Haha, Wiseman without the 21 HR power is essentially useless. With that said, Wiseman should be included on this list. Even if he’s old and not valued by the club (like Davidson, Sagdal and Hernandez) he’s still put up better power numbers than any other Nats farm player. 21 HR and a .231 ISO is excellent regardless. He very likely benefitted from being too old/too good for his level, but a promotion never came, so you can’t fault him for that part. That’s on the Nats FO. But perhaps the biggest argument for including Wiseman is his improvement in plate approach. He basically doubled his walk rate on last year’s, walking at 13.2% rate (up from 7.2% in 2017). If Wiseman can sustain a high walk rate, then he may just make himself more useful than other high strikeout players that have come before him, like Espinosa and Taylor. There’s a Steven Souza comp to be made, both in position, batting approach, power, and even in age. We’d be remiss to leave him off.

       1. Wiseman is on the Notable Bats list. Both he and Banks had serious college pedigrees. After his sophomore season and Team USA stint, Banks was mentioned as high as a mid-first-rounder, but injuries and inconsistency really dropped him. I’m sure both he and the Nats wonder what happened to that 20-year-old star-quality player. He hasn’t failed as a pro, but unless he shows some power soon, there’s not going to be too much promise ahead for him.

          The Wiseman non-promotion was quite curious. I believe Luke mentioned that his defense fell apart this year, for some reason.

    2. Am I just like this every winter wondering what NCAA bats could hopscotch over Hags to POT?? Shaddy, Oconner, Canning or Rhinesmith/Wilson by Memorial Day? baseball promotions are so regimented and “conservative”….( Marinconz or Daily in that mix of fast move-ups?) Big Tuna needs how much time @ Hags in early 2019?
       Rizzo truly letting caution to the wind with Agustin and Wiseman up for Rule % exposure after trading DJ…brass may need to sign a few bodies for SiberiaAAA and Burg.

15. Jeff –

    I am way too much involved in “doing Grissom things” these days and thus am missing the freedom to ponder the recesses of the farm. Let me say that I hope the Nats draft Max Schrock in Rule 5 and watch him turn into their everyday second baseman or at least, a great hitter off the bench. 🙂

    Let me also add the the game economics have so changed the winter season, and so fast, that the Rule 5 draft has far less meaning because of how the market lowers for established players who can fit roles at lower prices. Today’s non-tender, for example, has far more implications for filling up roster spots than hanger ons do.

    That the Nats are taking small risks with people like Guilbeau when the NEED lefties tells me that their plan is adjusting for these falling prices. If they are resigning Harper, and that could happen whether we want it to or not, they will need to manage costs otherwise, Suzuki and Rosenthal (assuming they believe him to be premium) style.

    1. Hey, Gil, very understandable. very wise in accessing that Rule V ML and minor league portions are less important than your non tender department mentioned.
       Max Schrock is an interesting suggestion considering that Murphy has been jettisoned, Jose Fernandez ( Cuban friend to Y. Hernandez @ Fresno) is overhyped and never made the grade even with the ballyhooed Dodgers. Dietrich leather is lame so why not go with familiarity.
       Jerry DiPoto is channeling some Trajer Jack Mckeon mojo?

16. Minor League Ball is shutting down, which is a bummer. I guess Sickels lost his sponsor.

17. Hope Sickels lands somewhere. It seems like I’ve been reading him for 20 years.

    May have to scratch Daniel Johnson off the list soon. Looks like a good return for him, though.

    1. It’s a harsh reminder that this is a niche and being among the best isn’t enough. I’d like to see him land at the Athletic, even if I’m not a fan of their mission to pillage the talent from major newspapers.

18. You can remove Daniel Johnson and Jefry Rodriguez from the watchlist, as they have now become Indians.

    Further depletion of an already fairly barren system below the Big 3. Trading for Gomes and taking on his salary would probably be a big indicator that they expect to compete in a big way next. Now use the Harper savings to land Corbin and it might actually work.

    1. Interesting that the Nats have so far decisively managed to fix their catching and setup relief pitching holes without resorting either to signing a QO’d free agent or giving up a top-100 prospect. Mike Rizzo still needs to get some help for the rotation and probably grab a first/second baseman. But he’s off to a good start in terms of keeping the Nats very well positioned either for bigger moves or to retain the biggest pieces of that farm system into the 2019 season.

19. Looks like you can put a line through Johnson’s name under OF.

    1. There’s a reason why I don’t finalize the watchlist until after the winter meetings 😉

20. I’ll be the only one to say this, but the Nationals farm system is hardly barren. Of course, the fruit are primarily at the lowest levels, but the fruit are very real. The internationals and Latinos have been so good, they have made up for earlier draft failure pre-2016.

    And I think that 2016 and forward, the drafts have improved, 2016 in particular, enough that successes will reflect at increasingly higher levels. As for Jefry Rodriguez, he was an example of someone liked by GMs but overlooked by pundits, just like Kelvin Gutierrez.

    I believe Rizzo when he speaks of how other teams are high on Nationals players, and the successes of former Nats minor leaguers demonstrates as much a developmental problem as a drafting problem.

    Its true that the Nationals are light on the top-100 side. And that there is a big dropoff after Garcia. But they are holding onto their top talent for now and restocking the ML, and the ML team does not have many holes. So the problems are there, but remediable.

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