Nats Add One (1) to 40-Man Roster
James Bourque—pronounced “Burke”—was the only player added thus far to the Washington Nationals’ 40-man roster ahead of the deadline for the upcoming Rule 5 draft next month.
It’s also one more than the number of 2015 collegiate draft picks and 2014 high-schoolers and IFAs who have been protected: ZERO. Even if more are added tomorrow, it seems odd, if not telling, that the Nats would do this in stages rather than announce all at once.
As written in this space a year ago, the myth that Mike Rizzo is somehow a draft genius needs to be given the same credence as creationists, astrology, and anti-vaxxers: the evidence just doesn’t support the delusion.
Granted, it’s worth reminding folks that the Rule 5 draft is blown way out of proportion. The players “lost” nearly always come back (see: Kobernus, Jeff) and those that don’t become answers to trivia questions (see: Nieto, Adrian). Please keep that in mind before commenting on the players who could be selected next month or protected on Tuesday.
We now return you to the 2018-2019 offseason…
Mike Rizzo is a good first round draft genius. But after that, he’s not good.
Since 2009, the Nationals have had 1 of 10 2nd round picks provide a net positive WAR (Solis). Kobernus, Renda and Stevenson have all appeared in the majors, but with negative WAR.
If you go to the 3rd round, we are 0 for 10. Matt Purke is the solitary pick to have played in the majors, but has negative WAR.
4th round: 1 for 10 has a positive WAR, but that’s Nick Pivetta… (AJ Morris and AJ Cole are the other two who have appeared but still have a career negative WAR)
Those are pretty poor results for a decade of drafts.
I’m not even sure if he should get credit for that much: Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon were blindingly obvious picks. Maybe Rizzo gets credit for Giolito and Dunning IFF (not a typo) Adam Eaton can shed his reputation as a Jaguar (great performance when it’s not in the shop), but what’s left?
Do you want to give credit for drafting the most emotionally fragile closer of this century? Or the most immature pitcher not named Jonathan Papelbon? And does he get credit for saving himself from making poor 1st-round picks not once but twice in the last five years?
That leaves you with Alex Meyer, Brian Goodwin, Erick Fedde, Carter Kieboom, and Mason Denaburg. Two of those are gone (and if we’re honest, not even good enough to be stars on losing ball clubs) and one of them has yet to play in a regular-season game.
TL; DR – In 10 years, Rizzo has yet to make a pick that wasn’t a consensus/can’t miss.
Rendon was a consensus/can’t miss pick? Hindsight really helps here, as Rendon was viewed as a big injury risk, which is why 5 other teams passed up on him. You have to credit Rizzo for not being the 6th. With that said, Francisco Lindor went 2 picks later (though Bubba Starling went one earlier…)
Rizzo has pinned his draft strategy on buying undervalued injured players. It seems that injury concerns aren’t as much of a market inefficiency anymore, so let’s hope Rizzo’s new market inefficiency is players with bad attitudes.
So we’ll be bringing back Elijah Dukes as a coach?
Is that sarcasm Luke.
Look which bonus baby got DFA by LA. Jose Fernandez. Dietrich the same in FLA
Maybe brass can stash Tom Koehler @ Fresno for depth or just a body to churn AAA IP??
/Is that sarcasm –> I think it’s like my mole
We should sign Fernandez just so we can reunite him with Yadiel Hernandez (they played together on the same team for six seasons in Cuba), and let them commiserate with their underappreciation by MLB teams.
Fernandez has a very similar path to Hernandez. Both defected the same year, and and have subsequently been nothing short of very good in the minors.
Fernandez: .320/.382/.516
Hernandez: .289/.373/.449
While Fernandez did get a cup of coffee last year, it baffles me why he isn’t being given a longer look. He can play 2B and 3B. If I were Rizzo I’d go in for him as a contingency plan for if Kieboom stalls or Kendrick struggles in the meantime. But then again, I’d have promoted Hernandez too in September to see what we’ve got in him, so who knows what Rizzo thinks.
Who gets the credit for Juan Soto? For Victor Robles? For Luis Garcia? For Yasel Antuna?
Just asking?
There’s always world series hero Bradley Peacock? Last of the last? Weren’t you a big fan?
Peacock was a Bowden draftee.
I think the one pick that Rizzo may have gotten right and deserves some credit for is Jesus Luzardo a little a 3rd round pick who is now considered an elite prospect. Dane Dunning is also a top 100 guy now but he was a first round pick.
You could make the opposite argument that Rizzo didn’t quite realize what he had in either player, or he’d have never made those trades. Dunning was very much an add on to the real prizes: Giolito and Lopez, in that deal. And Luzardo, while the centerpiece of his deal, would now be worth Doolittle+Madson+more alone. Same goes for Treinen.
Treinen was an example of what Rizzo does do well: identify undervalued players to “add on” in a trade when the Nats aren’t buyers. Feels like forever since that’s happened but McGowin a good example (December 2016).
Gilbert Lara was an interesting pickup in the Gio Gonzalez deal. His numbers haven’t been at all impressive, especially for a onetime top prospect, but he only just turned 21 and he is reportedly toolsy. Maybe a new coaching regimen for him can unlock the potential.
Maybe, but everything about him screams Bryan Mejia v2.0
Lara is much bigger than Mejia and has more power potential. For just a month of Gio, I thought they got two interesting guys in Lara and Harrison. Neither may amount to anything, but they’ve got some potential upside if they do.
He’s also an example of how Rizzo often fails to hire good coaches that can coax the talent out of them, where other teams have had little difficulty in doing so. Another recent example: Felipe Rivero Vazquez
Thank you Will. That is a credible cosmic factoid nugget. Fernandez and YH could be the Fresno reason. For Cuban sandwich night.
An elite prospect Rizzo foolishly traded away because he’s about as good at building bullpens as he is at drafting.
If I’m remembering correctly, the scuttlebutt was that Riz actually preferred Hulzen and his wounded wing to Rendon. Good thing the Mariners foiled him on that one.
I saw perhaps the pinnacle of Bubba Starling’s career, a grand slam off Gio when Gio was on a rehab start at Potomac.
The Nats’ Latin scouting should be put in charge of the whole deal. They’re the only ones who are spotting real talent in recent years.
Where will Williams and G Lara from Gio land next April ?
Indeed, I’d make whomever is in charge down there the new GM.
Read an article about the Mariners; they have exactly 1 catcher on their 40 man. Old friend David Freitas, who we traded for I don’t remember.
I can’t tell if you’re joking, but if not, that’s a really funny comment to make!
We traded Freitas for none other than Kurt Suzuki!
Truth is Will, I couldn’t remember.
One of the great things about this site is all these little walks down memory lane.
I think Freitas got as far Potomac with us.
Speaking of long-ago Nat farm hands — and overly hyped draft picks — Alex Meyer was DFA’d. Hard to believe he’s only 28. The Nats like ’em big, but was the biggest — 6-9. I remember how he dwarfed everyone at Potomac.