AFL Update: Nov. 6, 2018
Daniel Johnson (pictured) got the Vlad Guerrero Sr. treatment in the 10th as he held the free runner at third base in the top of the 10th to hold the score at 3-3 and set up the Rafters’ 4-3 win over the Sagauros in the bottom of the 10th.
Not coincidentally, Johnson threw a runner at home plate the inning before, preventing Surprise from taking a 4-3 lead in regulation. At the plate, the Nats’ #7 prospect (pre MLB.com), doubled, singled, walked, scored a run, and stole a base (his fourth of the fall). He’s now batting .180/.281/.220 in 14 games.
Carter Kieboom made another start at 2B but merely went 1-for-4 with a run scored and handled both chances (one putout, one assist). He’s cooled down to a .304/.443/.411 line in 15 games.
Tres Barrera was 1-for-3 at the plate and 1-for-3 throwing out basestealers. He also committed his third error. After 10 games (he’s splitting time with two other catchers), he’s 9-for-33 for a .273/.316/.303 line.
Salt River kept pace with Scottsdale to maintain its 3½ game lead and reduce its magic number to five games. The Scorpions come to Talking Stick tonight for the first of three night games this week.
Johnson THREW a runner at home plate? Now THAT is an arm!
I have seen some scouting reports that have questioned Johnson’s arm strength, which surprised me. As I recall, at the time he was drafted, there were reports that some of his OF throws in college had been clocked at 100+ mph. Luke saw him for an extended period at Potomac so may have some judgment.
I was among those who questioned the arm strength as it was described out of college but in my time seeing him in Potomac it was a notch below Taylor and a notch or two above Eury Perez.
Everyone is a notch below Taylor so that speaks well of him. The question is in ’19 can he take that big step at the plate.
I think the primary comparison for Johnson right now, for arm and everything else, will be with Stevenson, as he’s the one it seems most likely Johnson will one day be competing against for an MLB bench roster spot. That time might be 2019 if the Nats trade Taylor. I don’t think Johnson is ready yet, but if he continues to develop, I think his ceilings in most areas are higher than Stevenson’s.
Part of their levels of develop is due to different paths. The Nats drafted Stevenson from one of the top college programs in THE top conference in the country. Johnson had only one year at a four-year school, in an under-scouted conference (as Sao notes), after two at a JUCO.
Johnson has 2 or 3 assists this season and the other teams have stopped running on him.
He also has made several outstanding plays robbing extra bases.
A longtime scout friend who saw him at New Mexico State rated him as a plus plus arm at the time and said he believed he could play Centerfield at a Major League level. And he hasn’t come off that opinion.
To be clear, as Mark L noted, being a notch below Taylor is still extremely good — but I’ll certainly defer to folks who scout for a living. As for his fielding, which no one asked but you pointed out, I didn’t see anything that would dissuade from what he has done already: play all three OF slots without a downgrade from the “usual guy.”
I know some folks are concerned about the power drop, but I think that’s primarily a factor of AA pitching further depressed by injuries. I felt like he compensated for that by showing better basestealing production and efficiency. (22 in 96G vs. 22 in 130G and 4CS vs. 11CS).
Not sure how Johnson’s career ends up going, but I’ve argued since Draft Day 2016 that he was a steal in the fifth round. A five-tool prospect who put up gaudy numbers in an under-scouted league.