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Winter League Update

Monday Morning Box Scores
Time for our first update on how the Nationals’ minor-leaguers are doing in the winter leagues thus far. All statistics as of 11/22/2015.

BATTERS

PLAYER LG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG SB
Rafael Bautista DWL 26 91 12 27 5 1 0 6 9 11 .297 .360 .374 5
Brian Goodwin VWL 20 75 13 21 5 1 1 11 10 16 .280 .365 .413 3
Reegie Corona VWL 20 65 10 12 3 0 0 3 10 15 .200 .307 .246 1
Jose Lozada PWL 16 54 9 22 5 0 0 9 10 5 .407 .493 .500 1
Pedro Severino DWL 19 49 8 12 4 0 2 4 1 11 .245 .260 .449 0
Jose Marmolejos-Diaz DWL 1 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 .250 .250 .250 0

PITCHER

PLAYER LG W L SV ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP
Paolo Espino VWL 2 2 0 4.41 8 8 34⅔ 39 20 17 5 15 27 1.56


I thought last year’s group was small… but this is three fewer players and just one (1) pitcher. Not sure what to make of it aside from that it may be an indication of how desperate I am for offseason topics. 😉

Most folks will probably (and rightly) be obsessed with how Bautista and Goodwin are doing. Indeed it’s good to see both players putting up numbers that are closer to their reputation and/or capabilities.

But, a reminder that winter-league pitching varies widely in quality (Low-A to AAA) is in order, and that plenty of players have had monster winters with zero carryover into the next winter (e.g. Tyler Moore in 2014, Sandy Leon in 2013, Jesus Flores, 2011).

So take these numbers for what they’re worth: A chance to look at some stats when the news is slow (though maybe not this slow).

34 Commments

  1. Luke, in the dead news period, isn’t this about the time of year you crowd-source the arms and the bats? I’m actually quite curious to see what others think, as I’m not sure what order I’d put the pitchers after #1, or the hitters after #2.

    Regardless of what we’re supposed to make of the winter league numbers, I give Goodwin credit for making the effort. He’s facing a now-or-never year for his career, so at least he’s taking the initiative to try to improve his situation. He’s striking out too much, but otherwise, the numbers look promising.

    Not good on the Severino front, however, although I certainly realize that the sample size is small.

    1. Let’s see, Severino is a superior defensive catcher who can hit a few home runs but otherwise has poor on base skills and strikes out too much. Reminds me an awful lot of the current incumbent starter, actually.

  2. As GG and I would agree on, Luke , you are doing s great job
    This off season when you could spend more time with
    The dogs or elsewhere, plus we are awaiting the
    Crop lead by O and Meijja plus Reetz and D.C.
    Happy Thsnksgiving everyone

  3. OK, with absolutely no expertise whatsoever other than a desire to stir the pot and provoke a response from Jeff, here goes my early list for the most likely big leaps (performance that either results in 2 level promotion, strongly outpaces their 2015, or kicks in their career to another level) in 2016:

    1) Koda Glover
    2) Jakson Reetz
    3) Rey Lopez
    4) Joan Baez
    5) Jason Martinson
    6) Blake Perkins
    7) Kelvin Gutierrez
    8) Lucas Giolito
    9) Telmito Agustin
    10) Taylor Hearn

    1. Hmm. Interesting that you didn’t include Viktor Robles on that list. Personally, I see him finishing in Syracuse next year.
      And to include Martinson would imply that he’s on the ML club in 2016 (for at least some time), n’est-ce pas?

      1. Great job with hitting tutoring on Martinson
        @ Cuse. Pending a sell high on Escobar and or
        Difo, I could see Dusty looking long @ the Texan
        As utlity depth .
        Every guy in GG list fills a need @ some level .
        Robles is a given to elevator high.
        My hawk harrelson pick to click is Travis Lee
        Joining Nick Lee on some bullpen high .
        Like the ole Dizzy Gillespie tune my late uncle
        Loved to play on his tenor sax – loud- flying
        High ! Never enough Lees along the PotomAc for U.S. history
        Nerds .
        For those of you who have put up with me thru the years
        Like you, Luke , I must admit the winter meetings
        And the concluding Rule five draft will help
        Take my mind off the one year anniversary of my mum
        Passing . She listened to much expo/ Nats highs and
        Lows through the years. She wrote Hank Greenburg
        As a teen. Maybe that is where I get the response
        Bug , GG
        Happy Thanksgiving all

        1. The jazz tune is Groovin High
          Correction
          Welcome back Bobby Henley
          Logan Schaefer. Cheaper McLouth
          Heisley means bye bye Tyler Moore

          1. Expo fans take note
            Our old pal Donald Sutherland showed up in
            A clever 2013 film with Geoffrey Rush
            The best offer.
            That guy would call montreal radio station from
            Overseas to listen to ecpo games
            That’s a fan pre Internet!

    2. I’m also looking at Robles. The “big leap” I want to see from him is power, at least double digits in HRs while playing a full season. If he really is a five-tool guy, it’s time to establish that fifth tool.

      I’ll keep touting my guy Andrew Lee until he lets me down. The “big leap” for him would be establishing that his success as a starter wasn’t a fluke. If he can still keep overpowering hitters through Potomac (which is a significant step, as Giolito and Lopez can attest), he’s going to start getting some Lopez-like buzz.

      As far as organizational steps, Glover could make the biggest leap of all, possibly all the way to the DC bullpen.

      I’d take smaller steps from Reetz, Perkins, and Ward, just competent professional seasons from three youngsters.

      Higher up the catcher food chain, the organization really needs for Severino and/or Kieboom to show whether they’ve got MLB credentials, with the Ramos departure on the horizon.

      Mejia put himself on the radar in ’15. Can he add a little muscle and continue to hit at Potomac? Gutierrez and Franco are even younger and attracting attention.

      Last but not least, I want to see Wiseman show up making a lot better contact and move through Hagerstown and Potomac.

  4. Clarification for all. This is not meant to be a best prospect list. Nor is it meant to speak to who will have a good year next year. Rather, it’s about who will take it up a notch. A bit more on my rationale, gleaned from all of the intel available to public record….I knew this would bring folks in from the cold 😉

    1) Glover – Guy’s got the arsenal and mentality to be a gimme the ball closer. And that was before he got to the Nats minor league braintrust. Considering the need for a closer prospect — if there is such a thing — he’s got a chance to get people excited.

    2) Reetz – As much as I denigrate the prospect mavens as overrated, I listen carefully when the Nats player development people are excited. And Reetz was never a project who was highly rated based on measurables; he was simply a high school player who had a high baseball IQ, quarterback’s mentality, good eye at the plate, good pop and improving tools of ignorance. He is too young to sleep on.

    3) Lopez – His numbers reflected his working on his craft. The velocity is there, the ability to dominate continues, and starters who can carry it all late into the game are rare. And, unlike Fedde, he’s on his first elbow.

    4) Baez – Another guy who can touch 100 MPH and had his flashes. His problems were thought to be mechanical and he’s young. He may be ticketed for Auburn when all is said and done, but will be a reason to look forward to 2016 short season baseball.

    5) Martinson – With power, speed, defense, and positional versatility, there is a lot to like about him. Strikeouts are not to like. He is a notoriously streaky hitter. And even after the league figured him out, he still showed the capacity to put together consistent hitting later in the year. Why is he here? Because his history shows him to be a slow bloomer at every level. He does not have much to bloom to have a range of qualities that can help at the ML level. He could just as easily be waived, but I’m not giving up just yet. Before you laugh, I was talking up Tanner Roark before the Nats ever invited him to spring training after a 17 loss year. And yes, I still like Rafael Martin!

    6) Perkins – Whenever a high prep draft pick strikes coaches as better than advertised, take notice. One of the eye-catchers at the fall instrux.

    7) Gutierrez – Has really never failed, and shows doubles power in his next step up. Was an all star, closed the year strong, had the athleticism to get a look at shortstop. What’s not to like?

    8) Giolito – Because I am convinced that they have not really turned him loose yet, will this year, and he will be in the Nats starting rotation by June. Why not? He’s on his second elbow, so every pitch counts.

    9) Agustin – A good eye at his tender age, never missed a beat going up to Aubirn, yet never really had his chance to poke through in GCL until Robles got out of town. He’s another teenager to watch.

    10) Hearn – The best measurables of a complement of lefty starters graduating to Hagerstown. No surprise that he impressed the folks in the instrux – he was repeatedly drafted before the Nats finally got him. All good signs.

    With that said, Robles is, in my estimation the #3 prospect in the system. He’ll be #1 by the end of the year that graduates Turner and Giolito unless someone below him takes it up a notch. So he was not on the list for the reasons Jeff noted. As for Lee, I hope KW is right. But if his arm was so good, why didn’t anyone else know about it? I love what I see, I just need another year to be a true believer. Wiseman is the kind of guy who has that oomph to outperform his expected ceiling, so maybe he goes here on a list like this. Mejia is already my #8 Nats prospect after taking the second half by storm, and he needs to take a walk, not lift a weight. He’s another guy who just simply needs to stay the course to make his way up. Nick Lee is a Ryan Sullivan special, but until he starts throwing strikes, he’s not going to pass Solis and Grace. Finally, I know I am in the minority on Severino, but he does not excite me. As always, I’d prefer to be wrong in my pessimism, especially with Wilson in a getaway year.

    1. I’m just as surprised as everyone else about A. Lee. Here’s the reason he was under the radar. He was a hitter-only at TN his first season, and a bad one (.187 BA). His soph year, he was pitcher-only, but a marginal swing man, with seven starts and four saves. I take that to mean that he struggled as a starter and got moved to the ‘pen. He was nothing special: 3.90 ERA, 1.40 WHIP. His junior season, he was a two-way player, slugging .590 as a 1B, with nine HRs and nine saves, a 2.67 ERA, and a 0.96 WHIP. He was on several lists as a potential mid-round power bat, which is where I first came across him.

      I don’t know much about Lee other than that he was blowing people away across three levels after the draft, and Hagerstown gave him five late-season starts. Does he have the three good pitches needed to make it as a starter? I have no idea. If your secondary pitches aren’t up to snuff when you get to Potomac, it catches up with you and you have to work on them, just like Lopez and even Giolito did last season. You can’t just blow people away at that level if they can sit on your fastball. (Just ask Johansen.)

      One big plus for Lee is that he’s got amazingly low mileage on his arm after only 84.2 innings in college. Some college pitchers hit that number every season.

      We’ll see. Even if he isn’t cut out to be a starter, Lee is another power reliever who is progressing as quickly as Glover. But of course a power starter is worth a lot more.

  5. Robles is step by step on the exact same track as Bryce Harper. The only thing missing is the hype machine.

    Reetzs’ hitting in 2015 sucked, but he only turns 20 in January so lets not bury him yet.

    I’m with fore on Perkins.

    1. I’m very much on the Robles bandwagon, but Bryce is Bryce – he finished his age-18 season in AA and with 17 HRs, then hit six more in the AFL for good measure. At 19, he hit 22 HRs in the majors. Robles just completed his age-18 season. Power can develop later, though; Taylor didn’t reach double digits in HRs until his age-20 season and only had three at 21 as he struggled at Potomac.

      I’ve seen conflicting scouting reports on Robles. Some (including his Auburn manager) claim that the over-the-fence power will develop; others see him as more of a gap-power/speed Span-type player. In general, the Dominican players have not grown up with the same levels of nutrition and strength training that U.S. players have, so we see some later, Difo-like power surges as they catch up.

      1. My favorite line on Robles is he has, I guess this is a physiology term, ‘quick twitch’ muscles & reflexes.

  6. Bryce is Bryce. He is a once in a generation player. He is also a threat not to sign after two years.

    A faster track of Robles has him through A- and A+ this year. AA and then some in 2017. By the time the team makes a call on Bryce Harper, they will know whether a) Taylor’s HR production and ceiling puts him in the middle of the order and outfield and b) Whether Robles is enough of a star to be a starting outfielder for a championship team that loses Harper.

    In the meantime, the younger players whose thump has yet to bloom will have shown up in the minors at AA. Just for good measure, with three high picks this year, the Nats are poised to make fast track power/bat/defense selections that can be major league ready by 2018. Lee’s success, if sustained, demonstrates their ability to find pitching in later rounds.

    Jeff, I am still waiting for you to make a comment about Cat Ballou ;), slated to star for Syracuse in 2016!

    1. I agree completely but there is a strong chance Rizzo will piss away those picks on questionable signings.
      A lot depends on what Boras tells the Lerners to do.

      1. Picking three players who will see little or no time with the big club before Bryce hits free agency is a recipe for long term mediocrity and frustration. I will not be happy if the Nats do not sign at least one top free agent provided it is the right guy. My prediction is still that they will sign one such player and keep the other two picks.

    2. Agree on bryce
      He does have the west coast spirit in him.
      Who knows ? If one can trade SS to TexAs
      Then a big Cuban haul from Dodgers is possible .
      The old expo cynical fan here !!

    1. Agreed! I don’t think the Nats are sure what to think about Difo, or his future. He’ll have a fresh chance to impress a new coaching staff in the spring, if he doesn’t get included in a deal before then.

  8. My thought today guys is on the theme of reaquisitions in MLB
    Hoes, Lowrie etc.
    With Avila signing in chicago to pair with flowers
    Would Rizzo reaquire our old pal lost to chisox
    In Rule 5??
    Cat Ballou. Yes Cuse Cat unless traded to acquire
    a cat like Josh Redick since every winter needs a Rizzo
    / Beane deal .
    Heisey in – trey Moore out?

    1. I just chuckle at the poor OAK announcers with Lowrie and Lawrie on the same side of the infield!

      Speaking of the A’s, I’d love for the Nats to get Reddick, but it would have to be at a discount price since he’s only got one year before FA.

      I do think T-Mo’s days as a Nat are numbered, but then I’ve thought that for three years, so what do I know? I don’t see Heisey as a “replacement,” though; I hope they can do better on their MLB bench. I’m still hoping they’ll find the RH version of Clint Robinson among a bunch of minor-league signings.

  9. I still see the Nats signing O’Day and Zobrist.

    I also see them waiting out the free agent market and then being late players for Cueto, because I think they will trade Strasburg.

    The organizational play should be to add chips that are 1-2 years away (and therefore, in catching, in outfield, in left handed starters). Much as I was ambivalent re: the Souza trade, the reality is that Ross was coached up/matured into the big leagues in less than a year and Turner streaked up three levels. That could never have been foreseen last year (except by the Nats draft and development people).

    That should be the template for seemingly tradeable parts, be they Strasburg, Gonzalez (before he declines), Escobar, Storen, or Papelbon.

    Speaking of Papelbon, the guy can still pitch and it was not his implosion, it was Storen. If the Nats can;t get anything for him, he is enough of a competitor that Dusty can get plenty out of him. You can bet that there are teams who would underpay for him but would definitely use him in high leverage situations. Storen showed that he could not perform when it mattered most and Papelbon has. I hope Rizzo does not give him away unless it is the difference between a good clubhouse and signing Bryce. I refuse to interpret events through the lens of the insipid, chattering classes of ESPN and the pundit class, who collectively suck and create discord in order to get people to read them. I am willing to accept that Papelbon’s acquisition ruined whatever could be gained from Storen. I cannot accept that Papelbon is, like Soriano, a guy who can no longer pitch and get guys out in late innings.

    As for the Bryce-Papelbon history, Dusty’s experience there is a significant factor. And if Dusty is a joy to play for, perhaps that will make all the more difference in Bryce coming back, which is THE organizational priority between now and 2020.

  10. Notvmuch love here for Fedde, who I think could be poised for the big jump–say all the way to AAA if he has a really good season. He’ll be on a strict innings limit, of course, but I gather that the Nats are hoping that as a first round college draftee that he will be ready for the rotation by mid 2017.

    That could mean a rotation of Scherzer-Giolito-Gio-Ross-Fedde. Certainly young, but the Mets proved this year that superior talent trumps experience.

    1. I confess, I’m in the not-much-love-for-Fedde camp. His results in ’15 didn’t impress me, although he does sort of get a pass coming off TJ. This next season will tell a lot. The outside prospect guys still have him very high on the organizational lists. Based on that, I think he could also be a possible trade chip in a Chapman-type deal.

  11. Karl. Dig the Fedde opinion
    Rizzo is a cool card player as all these
    Deals go down before winter meetings
    Hamels haul was one thing out going from
    TexAs – SS haul worth asking about with
    That rich TexAs farm

    1. Second fastest right handed hitter.

      I think now that Turner is graduating, Stevenson is certainly faster, from the left side. Perkins may be as well.

      1. Yeah, second-fastest RH. I don’t know whether they’re including Turner in that, as he can really fly.

  13. Fedde is a great name to consider for this category.

    But Karl makes two sides of the same argument – on the one hand, draft picks won’t be here by the time Harper leaves. On the other hand, that Fedde (a 2014 draftee) could rise quickly.

    Turner was a 2014 draftee. So were Conforto and Schwarber. It’s not so unthinkable that there is not a Michael Conforto to be had in the very deep 2016 draft.

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