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Let’s Try This Weekly Thing

September 30, 2014

Letstrythisweeklything
Bear with me — without the structure of the regular season and the divergence from what I’ve done in past offseasons, the first couple of posts might be a bit of a dog’s breakfast.

The most obvious thing to me is to touch upon what I would have written about in shorter form until the AFL starts up (good news — our man out there says he’ll continue to take pics and share with us). Then, the weekly posts will be AFL-centric with some news and notes thrown in.

THE STATE OF THE FARM
It’s been rebuilt and it’s churning out talent, though the run of uber-prospects (Strasburg-Harper-Rendon) may be over once Lucas Giolito makes his way to Washington. That’s okay because that’s how it supposed to work with World Series contending organizations. I’m still concerned that the organization runs old and that it relies very heavily on the Dominican Republic for its teenage talent, but it’s hard to argue against the results even when some of the injury gambles don’t pan out (see Solis, Sammy; Purke, Matthew).

BA TOP 20 PROSPECT LISTS
In years past, the first couple of weeks of BA issuing its Top 20 lists could be summed up in a picture or two for Washington fans. For the second straight year, the Nats have a GCLer on the list, as Jakson Reetz was named the #14 guy. A third-round pick in June, Reetz posted a line of .276/.431/.376 line as an 18-y.o. catcher, which of course, has drawn comps to 2007 4th Rd. pick Derek Norris. Defensively, he’s considered ahead of the A’s backstop at this stage in his career.

THE 2014 WATCHLIST
After clinching all that can be clinched in the day game on Friday — sounds a little dirty, no? — the Nats trotted out what some Twitterati geniusly called “your 2014 Syracuse Chiefs” on Friday night; an observation sharp enough to slice warm butter. Thankfully, there are those who understand how things work better than that. That said, it pains me a little to know two things: (1) A lot of the names are going to change in the 2015 edition (2) that edition is going to have to be smaller and less comprehensive. The alternative, of course, is to scrap it altogether, which, as you can see, I’m trying to avoid.

THE DSL NATIONALS
The trend of getting younger and better has continued — the average bat was 17.7 years old, the average arm was 18.4 years old; a half-year younger than the league averages for both. Despite their youth, the D-Nats were among the more potent offenses, tied for 4th at 6.19 R/G (lg. avg. 4.98) and leading the circuit in HRs. The flip side is that the pitching (5.36 R/G) and the defense — with the exception of the stolen-base prevention (2nd in CS%, 48; lg. avg. 34) — were both below average (.942FA, .951 lg avg.).

Cutting to the chase…

TOP 5 BATS TOP 5 ARMS
1. Davinson Pimentel, C/1B, .337 GPA, 6HR 1. Joan Baez, RHP, 1.15/2.96/0.91, 2.8 BB/9
2. Telmito Agustin, LF/CF, .310 GPA, 25SB, 10 3B 2. Steven Fuentes, RHP, 2.30/2.90/1.23, 10.2 K/9
3. Victor Robles, CF, .305 GPA, 22SB 3. Angher Cespedes, RHP, 3.94/2.52/1.16, 11.0 K/9
4. Israel Mota, RF, .281 GPA, 8HR, 47RBI 4. Yonathan Ramirez, LHP, 2.63/2.60/0.91, 2.0 BB/9
5. Andres Martinez, SS, .280 GPA, .908FA 5. Juan Bermudez, RHP, 2.08/3.55/1.05, 2.97 BB:K


Honorable mentions go to Jeyner Baez, an 18-y.o. catcher with a 50% CS rate and a .256 GPA, and Wilber Pena, an 18-y.o. RHP who led the team in IP and tied with Bermudez with 14 games started. Folks can see all the team stats here.

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67 Commments

  1. Souldrummer says:
    September 28, 2014 at 8:35 am

    Luke, I feel that this is an excellent first weekly post. It sets clear expectations about what we can expect going forward. Do this and maybe a links post midweek to keep the site fresh, and I feel that you’ll be able to stay just as connected with the Natmosphere with some more live stuff on social media during game day. I hope that you’ll continue to handle this shrewd transition well, and please let me know what I can do to support and help you both online and offline. I’m making progress with my writing as well, and if you are interested in submissions for the newfangled site, let me know, I’ve got ideas of articles that I can write on the minors that I’d prefer to submit to someone with a precultivated audience than just write into the ether.

  2. jeff says:
    September 28, 2014 at 4:19 pm

    Luke, you know by now I like the toolsy bats with the names Guzman, Daryl F and Corridor.

    I knew he would be the first! On Wisconsin! Packers win. JoZimm twirls a no-no!! Congrats. Jordan.!
    best of times since Bucky Harris and that club …..192……

    ty, Luke. may the forsce be with you.

    cue Herb Albert’s Zoom!!!!

  3. forensicane says:
    September 28, 2014 at 6:12 pm

    One prospect note from today’s no hitter that is not what you think. Just as Souza was diving for the ball to make an amazing clutch catch for the ages (“big time players step up big in big time games – Santana Moss – Canes ’01”), Michael Taylor was closing on the ball and certainly left me thinking he would have caught it had Souza not called him off. He was right there. The guy covers serious, serious ground in the OF.

    1. peric says:
      September 28, 2014 at 6:44 pm

      Taylor seems to be on the cusp of the day he will be running that outfield and calling of corner fielders like Souza. But that day wasn’t today and there are still some question as to whether his bat is ready to play at the major league level? Looks like DSpan has all but cemented getting his option picked up by the Nats FO which probably means a good part of next season in AAA for Michael Taylor to improve his hitting. Hopefully, he’ll be up to that challenge.

      1. Nats Guy says:
        September 28, 2014 at 10:29 pm

        Good of you to admit Taylor is pretty good. PieroB on other sites is not as generous. Hmm. Who are you really? Peric of the 4A’s, or Periculum who gets kicked off other blogs, or PieroB Mr. Pomposity of the MASN site.

        1. peric says:
          October 1, 2014 at 11:03 pm

          Hmmm, I’ve pretty much always been pro Taylor at the expense of Span. But, you know dcNatz all you seem to be good at is ripping into other posters whose posts you don’t like on this site and others? You seem more like a Nats Troll than a guy? I’m surprised Luke hasn’t called you on it as he runs a pretty tight ship here. Hopefully, you will get an email from him on that topic.

      2. Jeff says:
        September 30, 2014 at 7:16 pm

        Potential interesting Cuse OF
        Taylor. Goodwin hood Q. Either
        Vettleson or Ramsey or both .

        1. peric says:
          October 1, 2014 at 11:05 pm

          Goodwin makes a come back? Maybe developing the athletic left-handed bat is always on Rizzo’s mind. Does Skole move to the outfield in the ‘Cuse?

    2. Mark L says:
      September 29, 2014 at 8:35 pm

      Let’s remember in the spring there was a scout who said of Michael Taylor… “He’s the best centerfielder walking the earth, majors, minors, wherever”.

      1. John C. says:
        September 30, 2014 at 12:33 am

        That said, Taylor was not going to catch that ball. He admitted as much after the game. It was Souza or no no-hitter. Fortunately we know how THAT worked out!

        1. forensicane says:
          September 30, 2014 at 3:41 am

          Perhaps you are right John. Or perhaps Taylor is as humble as he is in every interview. Were he to say any differently, it would be Bryce Harper-Denard Span sports talk radio fodder for the whole week. He would not step in that one.

          I am just impressed with what I saw on the replay. The guy gives an outfield a chance on a lot of “hopeless” hits.

        2. Luke Erickson says:
          September 30, 2014 at 7:18 am

          I’ll just say that had Souza not caught it and Taylor did, it wouldn’t have been anything I hadn’t seen before.

          1. Forensicane says:
            September 30, 2014 at 10:41 am

            You mean, seen before from Taylor, right?

          2. Luke Erickson says:
            September 30, 2014 at 1:29 pm

            Correct. The catch by Souza was sensational and quite unexpected.

  4. forensicane says:
    September 29, 2014 at 4:19 am

    Luke, thank you so much for keeping the playground open and for feeding the fire. And Souldrummer, thank you for encouraging my indulgence here. I hope my missives spark others to jump into the fray who are watching the minor league teams and see folks up close. It’s helpful to learn from what is behind the numbers from players’ relatives, scouts, press, avid fans, and all who populate this board.

    So with that said, speaking of transformations to the anticipated watchlist…..

    The system was remarkable for a number of players who imploded spectacularly or were injured. My own personal prospect top list was completely transformed in a way that was different from years past. Looking at the pundit top lists of Nats prospects, it;s obvious that a number of folks once highly regarded are headed out for good.

    So while we are a bit euphoric, let me post the following list of people for whom 2014 was the biggest wipeout, with an invitation to all — who will likely rebound, who had personal problems, who was hurt, who is etc…

    List in order of greatest degree of disappointment.

    1) Brandon Miller – still has the cannon for the throwing arm and the power. But after hitting Potomac hard in 2013, he went back for what appeared to be a brief spell. But while Kevin Keyes took a few laps before going to AA, it was Miller who fell completely on his face. “Bad hamstring,” yes, but Wha’ happen?
    2) Blake Schwartz – For while, he pitched like Roy Clark and Kris Kilne were geniuses in picking him in the 17th round. And then he hit AA and disintegrated like a United Nations peacekeeping force confronted with actual weapons.
    3) Matt Purke – if disappointment is measured by a roster spot, there he is. But he is a mentally tough player. Hey, Manny Rodriguez rose from the dead this summer, as did once Christian Garcia. Purke certainly is room temperature right now, even though he has an option remaining.
    4) Sammy Solis – Like the cheerleader that you find out has a hangup on an old boyfriend who is a charming sociopath. Just when you think he’s going to get to AA, he gets hurt. Again. and Again.
    5) Jason Martinson – All those shortstop trade rumors; this was supposed to be the year Martinson became relevant for 2015 or 2016. No such endpoint for the aging player who once had the huge RBI bat. His defense came around in a big, big way. And he had a respectable enough last part of the season. But it will take a big winter from him to crawl into the 2015 Syracuse discussion, and he now has Stephen Perez and even Wilmer Difo breathing down his neck from below. Is it now or never? Or just never?
    6) Brett Mooneyham – Two time draftee whose progress as a grizzled A- in 2013 turned into even older regress as a grizzled A+. Is the love affair with the big lefty with the hard throwing arm over?
    7) Brian Goodwin – Showed exceptional patience, and young at AAA, even as his BA was slow to come around. Dynamic enough in the fall league against star peers. After rushing through the system, a mysterious injury shuts him down. Will we see him in winter ball?
    8) Taylor Jordan – “Did not need surgery.” Does anyone know what he does need? Fortunately the organization can have him in AAA in 2015 if he is ready.
    9) Jeffry Rodriguez – He may be able to throw 98, but the Nats wouldn’t keep him on the mound, even for the short season.
    10) Robert Benincasa – A fair haired boy in the organization, but he keeps blowing up in the 9th inning even as observers feel his stuff plays at higher levels. Once a star collegian, he ought to have the maturity, given his control. What’s missing here?
    11) Danny Rosenbaum – How can I not hope for a lefthander I could go to synagogue with? He had TJ, so maybe he will come back better as others have. He has only one more step to ascend.
    12) Bryan Lippincott – The best hitter on the Auburn team in 2013 was apparently arrested and is being held in North Korea. I can’t think of a better explanation for why such a promising player disappeared.
    13) Erik “Crash” Davis – Watch his 40 man spot disappear?
    14) RC Orlan – From Auburn stalwart to Auburn also ran.
    15) Nick Lee – Had some statistically eye popping games in A-, showing the ability to strike lots of folks out and seemed a lefty starter on the horizon (like so any on this list). Had eye poping numbers this year, but for all the wrong reasons, went to the Dl, and then right back to eye popping disappointments.
    16) Pedro Encarnacion – A couple of years ago, he was the embodiment of talent from the Latin development program. Now, the guy they traded when they kept Pedro, Ivan Pineyro, is in the AFL and nobody voted for Pedro during the Potomac run.
    17) Josh Johnson – How can one not root for this guy? Well, he got hurt and never got back to the promise he was on the cusp of realizing. With Cutter Dykstra now up to AAA, the ship may have sailed.

    When considering the above, Harrisburg and Potomac are a tale of two starting pitching staff implosions. Harrisburg’s (Schwartz, Purke, Gilliam, Rivero) took its entire season down. Potomac’s (Encarnacion, Mooneyham, Lee) was righted all the way through the improbable replacements of long relievers from Hagerstown (Simms, Spann), itself (Bacas), Voth’s MLPOTY-caliber run, and the resurrection of Dickson.

    Does anyone have more to add on the above?

    1. Luke Erickson says:
      September 29, 2014 at 6:46 am

      I think it’s important to remember that the vast, vast majority of prospects will make it onto a list like this. But I’m not sure if disappointment is necessarily the right word. Certainly there is a gap between what the FO and BA tell us and what we see. As one commenter (disclosure: a prospect’s father) noted, difference between those two (FO and BA) is negligible because the latter is often parroting the former. And as much as we hate it, there is a psychology between draft status and prospect evaulation, as noted in this recent article.

      1. Souldrummer says:
        September 30, 2014 at 5:27 pm

        Great article on Baseball Prospectus, Luke, and I’ll hope you’ll add more of the content that reflects your values that *doesn’t* specifically include the Nats. Of course, seeing that Anthony Rendon is already the 13th rated player ever drafted 6th overall and still has a long career in front of him suggests that he could be our Jeter if Rizzo wisely locks him up as soon as possible, buys out his arb years, and adds some time onto that contract. Strong case to be made that Rendon exceeding expectations is what’s allowed the Nats to overcome the injuries on offense, and I’d much rather have Rendon be the Wrists of the Franchise than other alternatives. I think Face of the Franchise is occupied by a certain prime numbered fellow that I hope finally overcomes that injury bug.

        1. peric says:
          October 1, 2014 at 11:35 pm

          I’m actually hoping he does that with Harper as well. Its hard to find a player at age 21 with a wRC+ like Harper in spite of the injuries. Rendon might be a bit of an outlier don’t you think? He would have been the first overall pick were it not for his shoulder issue which seems to have been ameliorated? Added to the ankle and then in his first pro season he breaks the other ankle?

          Should we all be pleasantly surprised and grateful that Rendon has managed to remain reasonably healthy in his 2 major league season? Is it correct to be disappointed that Harper, a first over all pick, hasn’t managed to keep up with Trout? In spite of the fact, that for his age, and having to learn an entirely new position mostly in the majors, he is way ahead of minor league prospects who are older? Or in Strasburg for not being the flame thrower he flashed when he first arrived in the pros? Even though he has produced the best FIP and pitched the most innings of any other starter well over 200? Methinks many fans’ expectations may in fact be way too high.

          I suspect maybe that’s the point Luke is trying to make. But I could be wrong?

          1. Luke Erickson says:
            October 2, 2014 at 6:52 am

            No, you’re right: Expectations usually surpass reality when it comes to prospects, even if Rendon may be actually what they said he would be (from the 2012 Watchlist): “Defensively, scouts like his skills at either 3B or 2B, noting that his .300BA, 25HR, 100RBI bat is the real deal.”

            The idea that Harper isn’t as good as Trout and is therefore a bust is laughable. He was on the cover of SI at 16 and even FP Santangelo can tell you there’s nowhere else to go but down from there.

            As for Strasburg, I suspect the folks who are disappointed that he now “only” throws 95 are the same one who think Greg Maddux never threw 95.

    2. Mark L says:
      September 29, 2014 at 8:37 pm

      Laugh out loud on Rosenbaum.

      1. peric says:
        October 1, 2014 at 11:07 pm

        Got any other lefty swingmen other than Matt Grace ostensibly ready for the majors?

        1. forensicane says:
          October 1, 2014 at 11:35 pm

          Six lower minors lefties – any of whom can make it – let’s see who breaks away from the pack next year:

          Jake Walsh
          Justin Thomas
          RC Orlan
          Bryan Harper
          Matthew Spann
          Joey Webb
          Dave Napoli

          Anyone want to place bets?

          1. forensicane says:
            October 1, 2014 at 11:37 pm

            If you counted seven, you should be posting, and not me.

          2. peric says:
            October 1, 2014 at 11:42 pm

            I’d pick Hector Silvestre and Rivero first as potential lefty starter/long men who might make it to the majors. And that’s a pretty risky bet. And Kylin Turnbull appears to be turning things around at an advanced age.

          3. Luke Erickson says:
            October 2, 2014 at 6:02 am

            Silvestre was the first name that popped into my head as missing from that list, but good call on Turnbull, who did show enough late in the season at Potomac to make a release less likely. (Great, now I just doomed the kid).

          4. Forensicane says:
            October 2, 2014 at 9:36 am

            I omitted Silvestre and Rivero (and Mooneyham and Nick Lee) because they are starters except for when they are on rehab/purgatory assignment.

    3. Souldrummer says:
      September 30, 2014 at 5:30 pm

      Purke is about the only guy on this list that I’d like to qualify as a disappointment. That guy has become Mark Prior without the brief reign as one of the best pitchers in the sport. You hit (Rendon and Giolito so far) but you also miss (Purke) when you take on the injury risks in the draft.

      1. forensicane says:
        September 30, 2014 at 5:44 pm

        Disappointment on this list signifies (OK, with one exception or two) neither draft status nor hype. Rather, it reflects the progress and achievements of the player’s career prior to 2014, and the degree to which his performance (or incapacity) was a departure or even regress from reasonable expectations based on that prior performance. As I mentioned about Schwartz, expectations were low, he blazed through 2014, and then hit the wall at 60 MPH.

        That these disappointments (my phraseology, yes) are unlikely to impact the big picture (the reality of Pedro E’s replaceability was manifest in the Potomac title) makes their fizzling no less disappointing. Perhaps most important — THE PLAYERS are disappointed more than we are.

        With that said, this list includes its share of mysteries. Anyone in the know would be kind to inform. If someone’s parents are here and they know how a loved one is recovering and can advise us without hurting their esteem in the eyes of the front office, let us know. And if Bryan Lippincott’s teacher can tell us that he is doing fine as Chris Manno’s classmate in medical school (if in fact that is the explanation), please do pipe in.

        I know, for example, that there are varying opinions on Miller’s ceiling. But last year he did so well at Potomac for a month. This year he just flopped like Adam Dunn with the Chisox flopped. (Of course, we would all take Adam Dunn’s next year with the Chisox).

        As Luke has taught us sagely, lists amuse the soul, and it is either this, or “Top 10 hot chick girlfriends of MLB prospects in A ball.”

        1. peric says:
          October 1, 2014 at 11:09 pm

          hmmm a good argument against dualism. Maybe its good to have bad and good seasons since the experience teaches and can make a ballplayer better as long as the desire and fire is still there.

    4. SpringfieldFan says:
      October 2, 2014 at 12:09 pm

      If you want to try to convince Lippincott to come back, you know where to find him: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bryan-lippincott/99/448/240

      1. forensicane says:
        October 2, 2014 at 12:53 pm

        Well done. I guess he and Manno do have that something in common.

        This almost reminds me of something out of Moneyball.

        “What about this Lippincott? Big kid, knows how to hit”
        “He’ll wash out”
        “Have you seen his IQ?”
        “Yes, but I’ve seen his transcript. You think the Rule 5 draft is tough? He has a 4.0 for Chrissakes! Give this guy more than one year in A ball, and he’s going into investment banking. He’s not riding no bus when he’s 25.”

      2. forensicane says:
        October 2, 2014 at 12:54 pm

        Now watch Lippincott get all these LinkedIn invites!

  5. Sec314 says:
    September 29, 2014 at 12:00 pm

    Great summary report. Glad to hear you’ll be providing info on the AFL!

  6. jeff says:
    September 30, 2014 at 4:04 am

    If you look @ the collective history of Stanford alum with Nats/expos- storen only guy to stay healthy and be good MLB.
    Miller time is needed to add thump either @ POT or Burg.
    We can shrug off Pedro E. with the Latin arms following.
    Maybe Nats should retain Laffey along with the guys brought on board to fill open IP @ Burg and then SYR.
    thoughts?
    psychological nudity as Savage says??? LOL!

  7. jeff says:
    September 30, 2014 at 4:05 am

    oh yeah. 2015. healthy Goodwin with his tools along with Nic Lee getting it together?

  8. Mark L says:
    September 30, 2014 at 8:22 am

    It’s been a long time since we had a brand new photo of Spike come our way!

    1. peric says:
      October 1, 2014 at 11:15 pm

      Yes one of the features of this site I always thoroughly enjoy!

    2. Luke Erickson says:
      October 2, 2014 at 5:55 am

      Sorry, boys – that’s not Spike. But if you need a fix for bulldog pics, I can suggest this. (Pickle is the father of Harvey, who is the one with the brown “eyepatch” like Spike had).

  9. Jeff says:
    September 30, 2014 at 12:49 pm

    Gil Grissom of nats baseball- forensic one
    I was saying the MASH early on
    Kudos to pitching coaches for plugging IP
    Especially @ tryout camp Harrisburg with those
    Minor league FAs
    Let’s kick back , allow the off season moves to flow
    And respond in kind after winter meetings,
    Rule V draft, roster moves especially the
    Excess fruit on the 40 man to clear for uprising
    Kids.
    Anybody think Bo Porter will return to Nats
    Family ??

    1. Souldrummer says:
      September 30, 2014 at 5:28 pm

      If I were Bo Porter, I’d be looking forward not backwards. I’d try to find a team where there would be the chance that I could get promoted to MLB manager down the road. Given Matt Williams’ outstanding rookie season, that team is not the Nats.

      1. peric says:
        October 1, 2014 at 11:17 pm

        You never know … but you are probably correct.

  10. Jeff says:
    September 30, 2014 at 12:57 pm

    Orlan is relevant
    Interesting if nats go 4Aer with DO combo
    Or promote out sens 14 DO combo

  11. Jeff says:
    September 30, 2014 at 2:34 pm

    Luke. Is that story true about Lippencott and north
    KoreA?? Or is he teaching North Korean crack pot
    To hit a baseball ??? Lol!

    1. Luke Erickson says:
      September 30, 2014 at 2:38 pm

      Pretty sure he was joking…

      1. forensicane says:
        September 30, 2014 at 7:35 pm

        Pretty sure I was.

        If I said something about Dennis Rodman it would have been more obvious. Jeff, now I know what it means to need decoding.

  12. Jeff says:
    September 30, 2014 at 7:16 pm

    Kkkkk

    1. Mark L says:
      September 30, 2014 at 11:53 pm

      Is there an app I can get that will translate Jeff’s posts?1

  13. Kirkie says:
    October 1, 2014 at 8:30 am

    In other things BaseballAmerica related:

    – NYP top 20 is out; with Reynaldo Lopez #2 and Raudy Read #14. Chat is at the following link:
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2014-new-york-penn-league-top-20-prospects-chat/

    There’s also an article on Drew Ward, which is behind the firewall (can anyone with access give a précis?)
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ward-arrives-ahead-schedule/

    1. Kirkie says:
      October 1, 2014 at 8:34 am

      Oh; and in their ‘top-10 power-speed combination’ list, Michael Taylor is #1, Souza #5 and Wilmer Difo #8. Not bad….

      http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-10-power-speed-prospects-future-fantasy-impact/

      1. forensicane says:
        October 1, 2014 at 11:45 pm

        Thanks Kirkie. That’s the first shock of the hot stove – that Wilmer Difo is THE BEST power speed combo middle infielder prospect in the minor leagues?

        1. Kirkie says:
          October 2, 2014 at 9:18 am

          And, right on cue, the SAL top 20 prospects is out today. No real surprises about #1 – it’s Giolito. Perhaps a little more surprise about the identity of #3, given the comparative lack of time he spent in the league – it’s the second top-20 showing of the year for Reynaldo Lopez.

          And #14 is Wilmer Difo – placing perhaps a little lower than I might have guessed given his MVP year. But then again, BA ratings are generally all about projection.

          No love for Ward or Bautista – at least, not on the top-20 list. We’ll have to wait for the chat (later today?) to see if there’s any additional color on them.

          http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/2014-league-top-20-prospects-index/

          1. Kirkie says:
            October 3, 2014 at 4:33 am

            The Chat is up for the Sally league Top-20: couple of questions on Giolito, some love for Kieboom (despite him not making the top 20), and some general amazement on Reynaldo Lopez, with him being called a definite top 100 prospect (and the questioner suggesting top 50).

            http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2014-south-atlantic-league-top-20-prospects-chat/

    2. Mark L says:
      October 1, 2014 at 10:58 pm

      Thanks for the link. The bottom line of this analysis is that Lopez’s ceiling is a #1 or #2 starter
      I agree. He had a phenomenal year!1

      1. forensicane says:
        October 1, 2014 at 11:58 pm

        Giolito 2m+ bonus
        Lopez 17K bonus

        Glad they could afford both!

    3. Luke Erickson says:
      October 2, 2014 at 7:20 am

      Re: Ward story — nothing you haven’t seen or read before.

  14. DaveB says:
    October 1, 2014 at 12:20 pm

    Just got reminded (via MLBTR) that Adrian Nieto is now officially on the White Sox, having survived the year on the ML club.

    Somewhat surprising, in general, for a catcher to hang on as a Rule V pick, but the White Sox were a little unique as a team with 2 young, fairly equal catchers with options, so they could easily move them back and forth, leaving Adrian as backup all year (also probably helped that Chi wasn’t really positioned to contend this year anyway).

    While he would have been nice to have in the minors this year, it’s pretty clear now that it made sense to leave him unprotected, as by the time he might be competitive for the Nats ML roster there will be multiple competitive alternatives.

    1. peric says:
      October 1, 2014 at 11:12 pm

      Maybe. It seems as perhaps Rizzo has even tougher decisions to make this season. Given the major league club’s success it seems likely the prospects will again be carefully scrutinized for the rule 5 draft.

    2. forensicane says:
      October 1, 2014 at 11:55 pm

      Meh. The best thing about getting Kobernus back may have been that it helped the Nats sell the Tigers on Lombardozzi as a better alternative (j/k)

      So Nieto would have hit better than Jeroleman and Leonida this year. In 2015, Severino will throw out twice as many runners and both will be in the minors. By 2016, Pedro Severino will be outhitting (and needless to say, outplaying) Nieto in AAA. Adrian is no Derek Norris. But hey, hope he makes it!

      The 40th man on the roster last December was Michael Taylor, wasn’t it? I guess all’s well that ends well.

      1. peric says:
        October 2, 2014 at 1:38 pm

        The scouts really like Jakson Reetz. He comes with a Norris-like bat but is a better defender. It’ll be interesting to watch but right now Severino is the best prospect catcher in the system. Some like Raudy Reed.

        They seem to really need a left-handed hitting offensive catcher who is pretty good defensively. Nieto appeared
        ready to provide that. But this FO is pretty picky about their catchers’ defense so unless Rizzo makes a canny trade for another catching prospect?

        1. forensicane says:
          October 2, 2014 at 2:23 pm

          The system is flush right now with lower minors catching talent. There is a reason that both Severino and Kieboom are going to the AFL. Severino in AA in 2015 is exactly where the system needs to be. Were a takented catcher to be in AAA in 2015, the organization would have a bigger dilemma in Ramos’ long term negotiation. The Nats can afford to see Wilson hopefully put together seasons in which he can stay on the field while Severino matures.

          In the meantime, like the lefty relievers/long relievers/starters noted above (and I would love to hear from folks who have seen any of them pitch who will break out from that group and why) , the Nats have a LOT of viable players. Raudy Read was THE RBI thumper in Auburn this year, and did not get lineup support on abad offensive team. Reetz was only one of two catchers in the GCL who earned heavy playing time – Tillero frequently pushed him to DH.

          On top of that, Craig Manuel and Austin Chubb have never had the opportunity to start, but are no pushovers. Earlier this year, Manuel was platooning with Kieboom and simply got passed by Kieboom’s “unexpected” leap forward at the bat. Notwithstanding his age, it was SK first full season of pro ball.

          The Nats are not going to lament having Sandy Leon to hold it down for another year in AAA. The pitchers love him and in the minors, a catcher like him is a developmental boost to folks working it out. Jeff noted earlier that having Ramos on rehab assignment around helped turn the light on for Paolo Espino. No doubt that an undertalented and physically decimated Potomac pitching staff benefitted from having Severino around. Look how well Austin Voth did with him.

          I think it’s safe to say that Severino’s defense, gamesmanship, and his emerging bat (over .300 for the final two months of the season, and in the playoffs) — including power — are reason for us to be hopeful. I personally do not think the Nats have many prospects who can become starters on a championship team, but right now he appears to be one of them.

          Of all of the scenarios debated, here’s one for 2017; Wilson develops into a BEAST cleanup hitter next year, overcoming the LaRoche loss. Zim goes back to third and makes it. The Nats’ first base options are less than stellar in 2015. Meanwhile, what IF Severino really took off like Difo did this year, only at AA? Well, then, obviously, the same Zimm to 1B speculation we have now will be replaced by “Move the Buffalo to 1B to keep him in the lineup” and get Severino in behind the dish.

          The point is, every year, someone steps up waaay big to change the existing paradigm. This year, it was Souza, Taylor, Aaron Barrett and maybe even Rey Lopez. last summer, it was Tanner Roark (!). Sprinkle in expiring contracts, injuries-decline, and roster management becomes more art than science. You can plan for Giolito, but NOBODY saw Rey Lopez coming like this.

          Witness, for example, Rizzo’s pursuit of Fielder a couple of years ago. Even he miscalculates – but of course. The crystal ball cannot be predicted. For all we know, Tony Renda blows everyone away in Arizona. Then what?

          1. peric says:
            October 2, 2014 at 5:34 pm

            Zim isn’t going to third and “making it”. Not with a degenerative shoulder. That I deem isn’t going to happen. Which means he’s at first base/LF for the next 5 seasons. Ramos is a catcher only until he gets beaten out for the job.

          2. forensicane says:
            October 2, 2014 at 5:55 pm

            OK, sir. I’m sure I am wrong, but professional sports, including the Nats, are full of starting players with degenerative you-name-it. There’s a lot one can do over an off season, like rest a hamstring; medical care is very advanced for a lot of degenerative joint disease, and the Nats were 12-5 with the degenerate at 3B. You speak as if you are 1) an orthopedist and 2) he is the second coming of Brad Meyers. The Nats have 100 million reasons why they are going to see this through. Speaking of which, what do you think you would see if you compared his shoulder MRI to Rendon’s?

            My point was not predictive. It was a rhetorical question to say that some of us cannot foretell aspects of roster construction that are fate, and some that are art, and some that are luck. The rest, as Rizzo teaches, are scouting.

          3. peric says:
            October 4, 2014 at 4:38 pm

            And the scouts are consistently saying Zim can no longer throw. Zim apparently had some pretty serious major surgery done that wasn’t publicized. If you want comparisons you should try former Nats bullpen prospect and fan favorite Cole Kimball; not Rendon whose arm appears to be perfectly fine at this juncture. Where is Cole pitching today?

          4. forensicane says:
            October 6, 2014 at 10:56 am

            I don’t think the comparison to Kimball (who is pitching at a level commensurate with lower velocity and historically too many walks) is apt.

            Ryan Zimmerman started 23 games this year at 3B. He made a grand total of three errors. How many of those that were throwing I will defer to others. In 2013, his throwing improved substantially as the year progressed.

            The 2014 team was 12-5 with him in the lineup with his current throwing arm before he was injured. Most of those games were 3B starts. He dos not throw with his hamstring, which is limiting him now.

            Keep also in mind that his return from this injury is faster than expected. So I think that with an offseason to heal, he is still a realistic possibility. Perhaps you are right, and we will agree to disagree.

  15. Jeeves says:
    October 2, 2014 at 7:05 am

    I haven’t posted much but I wanted you to know, Luke, and other contributors on this site, that I still read and enjoy the comments. Still my favorite site to turn to. I imagine there are many others like me.

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