The Preliminary 2024 Watchlist
Now that Thanksgiving is behind us—but a month of Mariah Carey ahead of us—it’s time to take a look at who will make the 2024 edition of the NationalsProspects.com watchlist, an honor that will impress tens of people outside of the DMV!
As the old-timers know, I’m not big on ranking guys 1-XX. I’m sure that’s cost me some pageviews, which have become a little more important as costs continue to race past revenue, but I’ll cede that street corner to the SEO whores at SB Nation.
Another factor for this decision is avoiding the pointless debates of who’s ranked at X instead of Y or vice versa. This will be the 14th edition, and like the previous 13, the talent is not even close to evenly distributed across the positions. Outfielders, we got. Middle infielders, not so much.
So, let’s dispense with the caveats:
• It’s not a depth chart. It’s ordered by the highest level played to date. The guys at the top of the column are not necessarily better than the guys at the bottom.
• It’s (mostly) based on 2023 usage. The Nats have a history of rotating IFs between 2B, 3B, and SS and are usually not very strong at 1B, 3B, or the corners of the OF.
• It’s preliminary. I’m relying on my visitors and regulars to comment with omissions, criticisms, and/or suggestions because (A) my time is limited (B) the community here is smarter than the average bear (C) I’m prone to overlooking draftees because, unlike basketball or football, it happens in the thick of the season (also, see: A).
• But ___ was drafted ___ or signed for ____ Where someone was drafted or how much money was spent has more to do with the market or the Nats’ estimation thereof. The only thing that affects is how many chances a guy gets (*cough* Yasel Antuna *cough*).
• Why is ________ only a notable? It may not be fair, but it’s true: Age matters when it comes to prospects, regardless of injury or cataclysm. As previously (and frequently) written (threatened?), I still cannot institute an age limit lower than the unwritten but inarguable 27.
Alright, enough vamping…
| C | 1B | 2B/SS | 3B | OF | M*A*S*H |
| Millas | Frizzell | Baker | House | J. Young | Cavalli |
| Pineda | Boissiere | Made | Lipscomb | Wood | Henry |
| M. Romero | Ochoa Leyva | Brown | Morales | Hassell | Brzykcy |
| Cooper | Mota | Crews | Bennett | ||
| Pinckney | Collins | ||||
| Lile | Aldonis | ||||
| Vaquero | |||||
| Quintana | |||||
| RHP | LHP | ’23 Picks | DSL Arms | DSL Bats | Notables |
| Rutledge | Ferrer | Sykora | Roman | Batista | M. Cuevas |
| Willingham | Cate | Sthele | A. Pena | Tavares | Ribalta |
| Schoff | Parker | Simpson | Portorreal | Joaquin | Stehly |
| Theophile | Herz | Nunez | R. Cuevas | Acevedo | De La Rosa |
| Lara | Alvarez | Glasser | R. Ramirez | Maricuto | White |
| Lord | Saenz | Lawson | |||
| Atencio | M. Perez | Suggs | |||
| Susana | Tolman | Cruz | |||
| Grissom | Agostini | Green | |||
| Merrill | Thomas | ||||
| Leon | Marquez | ||||
| Mo. Diaz | J. Garcia | ||||
| Jimenez |
I think you can see the reason for my angst about age and the shallowness of the pool, especially at first base. More than a couple of guys made this list only because they were on the Top 5 for their level (in case you’re like “who?”) though I tried to not list them in the position category if that were the case.
I was very wrong about Rutledge in this space a year ago… but spot-on about Mason Denaburg. Maybe that’s influencing some inclusions (e.g., Cate) but I’d like to think I can defend their presence with another reason.
As it was a year ago, there’s a “yeah, but” for almost all the pitchers: age, control, production, and of course, injury – pick one or more, you probably won’t be wrong. I included Cavalli because it’s unlikely he’ll break camp with any of the full-season teams. Henry appeared to be “working on some stuff” in almost every appearance in 2023 and gets the cover of the category for 2024.
I’m open to suggestions for the ’23 picks, some of which were deduced from usage. I know that’s flawed because some of those “promotions” were because the FCL was done but Low-A was not. The category has not been a regular feature but seems appropriate given that the draft has been cut from 40 rounds to 20 since 2021, thus increasing the attention paid to each pick.
Wow Luke. Has it been 14 years? Time flies when you’re having fun.
The watch list is fun, if only so we have a lot to talk about.
kinda early to list Cruz and Green as notables IMO. but I guess some debate is entertaining
I see only a few minor quibbles/suggestions, and most aren’t about a lot of guys who I really expect to make the majors. But then if you had told me at this time last year that Jacob Young would be in the majors . . .
I’d suggest moving Ochoa Leyva off 1B, although I’m not sure where I’d put him. He split time among SS, 1B, and LF (was drafted as a SS). I would move TJ White and Quintana to the 1B list, as Quintana is pretty much done with the OF. (And if one of those is to be exiled to notables, I’d suggest Quintana over White, as Q is a year older and was a level lower.)
There seems to be a presumption that Morales is destined for 1B, but they’ve kept him at 3B for now, so that’s where he should be on the list. Perhaps he will have started the transition in Instrux and the spring.
Maybe there needs to be a utility category? They seem to be having a number of these guys playing multiple positions: Lipscomb, Baker, Stehly, Ochoa Leyva, et al.
As much as I was troubled by Green’s performance, I’d agree with FredMD in keeping him in OF over notables at least for one more year. I have less confidence in Cruz’s ceiling and wouldn’t fight his exile. And maybe one more year for Infante in notables?
Perhaps Dugas is worth mentioning among the ’23 draftees. He hit quite well in the middle of the stacked LSU lineup last spring, but he did very little at Fredericksburg in the SSS (16 games) there.
I don’t really have much to say about the pitching. Four of the six or seven best/most-MLB-likely arms in the organization are at the top of the MASH unit. There are a lot of names listed, but really not a lot of depth in terms of quality.
Just a few minor quibbles:
I understand the need for a ’23 draftees category, when guys like Sykora haven’t thrown a single inning, and therefore cannot be placed elsewhere. But there’s a bit of inconsistency. Nunez and Glasser, for example, have played a good amount already and could be classified by their position, like you did with Crews, Morales, Pinckney, etc.
While on ’23 draftees, I’d echo KW and add Dugas. I’d also consider Schultz, Sullivan, Amaral and Baldo, who had a bit of pre-draft hype and/or post-draft performance.
I’d add Jared McKenzie to whichever list Elijah Green ends up on. He had a poor ’23 hitting only .212/.281/.320, but he had a tantalizing ’22 and is still a 5th round pick. A lot of similarities with Green’s story to date.
Jack Sinclair. The guy keeps churning out results. He followed up his breakout ’22 with a solid season, where the Nats really challenged him with 2 promotions and a cameo in the AFL. Still, he consistently strikes out more than a batter per inning and limits hits. Barring injury, it’s almost certain we’ll see him in DC in ’24.
Similar to Sinclair, Lucas Knowles also had a good if unexceptional ’23, where he also climbed the ladder quickly.
Onix Vega. He had a weird ’23, getting jerked around a lot. But in the level that mattered (Harrisburg), he hit a respectable .254/.376/.295. That alone seems worthy enough of inclusion.
Luke Young had a quietly good ’23, striking out 107 in 94 IP, with a strong finish, striking out 7 or more in 5 of his last 7 starts and a 4.08 ERA in the process.
Kyle Luckham had the opposite season of Young. Through his first 15 starts, he had a 3.73 ERA and good peripherals, but it kind of fell apart from there. Though he did finish the season at AA, which is something.
Sammy Infante. He hasn’t lived up to the hype, but he also hasn’t been bad. Plus, it’s not like you need to be good to make the watchlist (*cough”Boissiere*cough*). Also, he shifted to being primarily a 2B in ’23, which given the abject depth there, is worth an inclusion (or at least on the Notables).
Lastly, I think you were too generous with the DSL players. In what may have been historically one of the worst DSL teams in history, I’d have added fewer names than you did. Probably only Batista (for performance) and Acevedo (for the bonus) of the bats. And I don’t know, Angels Pena and Roman, and maybe Leuris Portorreal (just because he was especially young while putting up mediocre stats) among the arms. The DSL is always a crapshoot, so who knows…
On the reverse side, I’d consider removing the following:
Boissiere
Theophile
Merrill
Cate
Tolman
(Most of the DSL arms and bats)
Also, I’m happy to be wrong, but I think Ferrer exceeds rookie eligibility, having spent the entirety of July and August on the MLB roster. Amos Willingham, however, I think may have snuck under the 45 day limit.
thanks for the details and totally agree on Luke Young and Vega.
Sinclair? couldn’t keep people off base or the ball in the yard on City Isle and that didn’t stop out west.
Nice list! Here’s some minor inputs. Agree with Will that Ferrer has exceeded rookie eligibility. Agree with KW about first basemen. Would add Munoz to RHP since he is still on the 40 man. Would consider adding Ribalta, Rico Garcia and Sinclair to RHP; Knowles and Cronin for LHP; and McKenzie for OF.
Elijah Green is like the comic theme in the old Bruce Willis film Blind Date : you were warned not to get her drunk and hence her wild behavior .
Luke did you meant to type vaping or vampiring versus vamping ? Lol
Is this the break out season or not for Frizzell ??
Curious to see how the arms coming off 60 day DL rebound especially Pablo A
I was on the Frizzell bandwagon, but then he got Reinhardted and struggled mightily at AA. Back at Wilmington, 9 HRs and 11 doubles in 76 games in that massive yard isn’t bad, and a 17.5% walk rate is excellent. He had bad BABIP “luck” at both stops.
There are a handful of things working against him. He’ll turn 25 in February and will be Rule 5-eligible in December. Also, he was 100% DH in 2023. They seem to hide his glove at every opportunity.
So what we’re left with here is probably a Meneses best-case scenario, a guy who may not really find his hitting groove until he’s a little older, and who is a liability with leather. But there have been times where Frizzell has shown enough power to remain intriguing, including 11 homers and 11 doubles in only 34 games at F’burg in 2022.
Yes, Vega definitely needs to be added.
Like KW, I’m still intrigued by Will Frizzell. He had an OPS of .806 at the Grand Canyon that was Wilmington. He’ll be at Harrisburg next year and then we will know what his future looks like.