The Preliminary 2023 Watchlist, Part One
There’s not quite enough news for a Saturday Smorgasbord, so I decided to get the offseason party started rather than wait another week.
But I will break this into two posts to help keep the site going… this is only the second normal-length offseason since 2019—which, unlike a lot of folks in DC, I very much want to stop referencing—and I’d rather hedge against news being slow than hope for something to come along.
This is the 13th edition. Every year when I think “Is that it?” after I take a pass at building this, I have to remind myself to look at how Oprah-esque the first couple were (“You get to be on watchlist! He gets to be on the watchlist! Do I get to be on the watchlist?”).
Sadly, I have to bring back a category (M*A*S*H) that never seems to go away for very long. I’m sure I’ll get some grief too but surgery is surgery, even if we can’t confirm that each and every one of these guys went under the knife.
Before I go any further, a reminder of the caveats:
• It’s not a depth chart. It’s ordered by the highest level played to date. The guys at the top of the column are not necessarily better than the guys at the bottom.
• It’s (mostly) based on 2022 usage. The Nats have a history of rotating IFs between 2B, 3B, and SS and are usually not very strong at 1B, 3B, or the corners of the OF.
• It’s preliminary. I’m relying on you, the reader, to write in with omissions, criticisms, and/or suggestions because (A) my time is limited (B) the community here is smarter than the average bear (C) I’m prone to overlooking draftees because, unlike basketball or football, it happens in the thick of the season (also, see: A).
• But ___ was drafted ___ or signed for ____ One of the reasons I don’t rank the guys from 1 to XX is because it just leads to pointless arguments. That may cost me some pageviews, but as long as I’m close to breaking even on the earnings versus the costs, I’m ok with it. I don’t obsess about it because you can tell those who do (*cough* Federal Baseball *cough*) and measure how high they hike up their skirts.
• Why is ________ only a notable? It may be not be fair, but it’s true. Age matters when it comes to prospects. Usually I get this question about college picks who’ve turned 25 or 26, but sometimes it’s a Billy Rowell-type that hasn’t progressed despite the head start. It’s one thing to be 23 at High-A as a second-year pro, it’s another to be 23 at High-A and six years into your career because you were an IFA and/or a HS pick.
Without further ado, part one of the Preliminary 2023 Watchlist:
C | 1B | 2B/SS | 3B | OF | M*A*S*H |
Millas | Emiliani | Baker | Alu | Antuna | Tetreault |
Pineda | Boissiere | Cruz | Infante | De La Rosa | Lee |
Vega | Frizzell | Lipscomb | Wood | Henry | |
White | Hassell | ||||
J. Young | House | ||||
De La Cruz | A. Ramirez | ||||
Quintana | Lile | ||||
Green | |||||
McKenzie | |||||
Cox | |||||
McKenzie |
Quasi-interesting detail from checking stats on a few of a few of these guys: Emiliani is one day older than Boissiere. They both will turn 23 in March. Both also may be Watchlist short-timers unless they show a power surge next summer and cut down on their strikeouts.
I’ve been saying some things to this effect in other contexts, but the Watchlist is a stark illustration: the system is loaded in OF and has very little real meat in the infield. Luke lists 11 outfielders, plus there are two in MASH.
This illustration is why when people bring up OF Dylan Crews as a possible top draft pick for the Nats next summer, I point to the Two Jakes (hard-hitting shortstops Jacob Gonzalez and Jacob Wilson) instead. Or pitcher Chase Dollander.
OF A: .215/.353/.338 at A+/AA, with 11 HRs, 17 2B, 121 Ks
OF B: .234/.344/.404 at A+/AA, with 14 HRs, 22 2B, 130 Ks
B is six months older. A has been on the 40-man for two years. I’m not arguing that Justin Connell (B) should be on the Watchlist (or the 40-man), but he’s a very comparable player stat-wise to Antuna (A) and has shown more power.
Some omissions:
Cristhian Vaquero, OF
Nathaniel Ochoa Leyva, INF (played 2B, 3B and SS in very limited time), was a 6th rounder in HS, so a lottery pick but probably worth including
Geraldi Diaz, C (put up a very respectable .751 OPS in age-appropriate Fburg)
Ricardo Mendez, OF (very disappointing season, but other guys are listed who were even worse this season (Emiliani, Boissiere, Antuna, etc.))
Omar Meregildo, 1B/3B (he’s a bit old, but he’s got more power than anyone in our system in Wilmington or higher)
And I’d second KW’s suggestion to include Connell. He’s the epitome of prospect fatigue.