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Nats Add Six (6) to 40-Man Roster

After years of adding just one or two players, the Washington Nationals went hog-wild and protected six – the most since 2016and quite possibly since the franchise relocated to DC in 2004.

Without further ado:

  • IF Jake Alu
  • LHP Matt Cronin
  • OF Jeremy De La Rosa
  • LHP Jose Ferrer
  • RHP Jake Irvin
  • RHP Jackson Rutledge

Now, for the obligatory reaction (hence the pic 😉

Alu was a fan favorite and arguably the best player at both AA and AAA in 2022. But I cannot help but wonder if this is merely a hedge against Carter Kieboom’s recovery. The Nats have long coveted utility guys (e.g., Alu has played some OF) and it’s worth noting that the RedWings’ OJ (Other Jake) made the club in 2019 in that role.

Cronin is left-handed and throws strikes, which will keep many guys around for far longer than their right-handed counterparts. Crossing the 90 mph mark is just a bonus, but mostly, as Todd Boss wrote earlier this week, because he’s the kind of guy that teams can pick and hide at the back of their bullpen.

De La Rosa may be getting the benefit of the Nationals being a last-place team, as the risk of him being both selected and kept on another team’s roster for the duration of 2023 is about the same as getting killed by a cow. Comparisons to Yasel Antuna in 3… 2… 1…

Ferrer See: Cronin, Matt. OK, fine. He does throw harder and his K rate has been much more stable (Cronin’s fell from 12.1 in AA to 8.6 in AAA). Plus, he’s three years younger.

Irvin feels like a favor to someone or a nod to the Nats’ fetish for Big-12 collegiate guys. Decent walk rate (2.5), slightly better than average K rate (9.6), but no longer a worm burner (37.5 GB% vs. 62.2% in 2018). Not to mention, he gave up a fair amount of HRs (nine in 73⅓ IP at AA).

Rutledge has avoided Nats’ elbow thus far and that may be the key difference between him and Mason Denaburg being protected. While I’m sure some may position this as “well, he could be converted to relief and push that FB up to 99 or so and then only used in low-leverage outings,” Occam’s or Hanlon’s Razor is more applicable.

To make room, the Nats outrighted 35-y.o. Yadiel Hernandez and two injured pitchers (Jackson Tetreault and Evan Lee) while designating Tommy Romero for assignment. Earlier this week, Washington released more-red-flags-than-the-1980-Olympics Seth Romero. Last week, LHP Franciso Perez and C Trey Barrera were also removed from the 40-man roster with no takers.

Obviously, the 40-man will change quite a bit between now and March 30, 2023 (e.g., the non-tender deadline is this Friday). For us, the next big date will be the Rule 5 Draft in three weeks (December 7).

29 Commments

    1. So Doc Watson and Erik Meijia must have been in Dodgertown together in 2018.
      He fits the box of some of us fans : versatile and switch – hits .
      Interesting first 3 minor league FAs by Doc .
      Hobie could be the hidden jewel like Pal Joey last winter .

  2. So…we have the 1st pick* in rule 5 and we have 1 spot open as of now.

    *This is per Mark Zuckerman – so I presume this does not change due to draft lottery.

    A little rule 5 history:

    Players taken by Nats
    ——————————————–
    2005 Tyrell Godwin, Tony Blanco
    2006 Jesus Flores, Levale Speigner
    2007 Matt Whitney* Garret Guzman*
    2008 Terrell Young*
    2009 jamie hoffman* traded for brian bruney
    2010 elvin ramirez*, brian broderick

    * = did not play for Nats

    Players taken from Nats in Rule 5
    ——————————————————
    2005 Chris Booker (eventually returned and played for Nats)
    2006 Alejandro Machado
    2009 Zech Zinicola
    2010 Michael Martinez
    2011 Erik Komatsu, Brad Meyers
    2012 Daniel Rosenbaum, Jeff Kobernus
    2013 Adrian Nieto
    2019 Sterling Sharp

  3. Most of the Rule 5 picks from the Nats were returned. The last one to stick was Nieto, who the White Sox stashed for a whole season but who subsequently never got another MLB AB. Nieto had not played about A+ before being drafted, but he was a catcher who could hit a little . . . not unlike the now-exposed Drew Millas.

    The only player the Nats have picked in Rule 5 who turned into (sort of) anything was Jesus Flores. With the pick of the litter this year (draft on 12/7), I do hope they will take a flyer on someone.

    2. Some years we’ve never had one organic R/R OF on AAA
      Now 3
      Hill
      Casey
      And DJ Peter’s
      Like collecting books or baseball cards , Doc Watson ??

  4. I will confess to some Jake Alu skepticism. Some here have been on his bandwagon for a good while, but I kept thinking he seemed too good to be true. But if he were a 1st round pick and three years younger (he turns 26 in April), we’d be doing cartwheels. Across AA and AAA, 132 games, he had 20 homers, 40 doubles, and an OPS of .871 while striking out only 18% of the time.

    I started thinking of who he reminds me of, and it’s a 13th-round pick from a while ago, although he did make the majors at age 23. Before being called up, at AA that year, he had 13 homers and 26 doubles in 99 games while posting an OPS of .870 (and only K’d 11%). I’m NOT predicting that Alu is going to turn into Daniel Murphy, but that’s who he’s bringing to my mind. I’ll also note that Murphy really kept working at improving even after he got to the majors and really didn’t become a star until his 30s. That’s the narrow path that Alu will have. The Mets had another non-SS infielder who came up around the same time but couldn’t stick and eventually got non-tendered. In fact, the most homers that Justin Turner hit in a minor-league season was 12. That was his age-26 season (same as Alu), and he posted an .862 OPS. So you never know.

    3. A few weeks ago, I came across a statistic that really surprised me, so apologies that I’m repeating myself, but Jake Alu was rated according to DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) as the best third baseman defensively in all of the minor leagues this season (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-the-dodgers-do-what-they-do-w-jos%C3%A9-mota-standout/id1461705002?i=1000580333150). While I’m skeptical that Alu is the second coming of Brooks Robinson, if he’s even only above average defensively, this is a massive game changer.

      Ke’Bryan Hayes, a former top 10 prospect for the Pirates, has turned into a 3-4 WAR 3B (3.0 fWAR vs 4.3 bWAR), but he’s been awful at the plate, hitting only .244/.314/.345. But Hayes was elite defensively, putting up +24 DRS (compared to Alu’s +17 in the minors). There’s a not unrealistic path for Alu to becoming one of the Nats best players, and good defense and a mediocre bat is all it would take.

  5. I doubt teams will take the Rizzo angle picking up a battered wing pitcher like Lee JT or Bonus Baby Densburg .
    By the way full moon on 12-7
    Anything is possibly happening
    Lol
    Listen to the Doctor Doobie Bros

  6. The fun part will be seeing what well scouted hidden talents can be unearthed in the AA section or A level section draft levels

    1. it’s all fun if you can suspend the belief that Rizzo is an idiot. obviously I don’t feel that way. since ’19 he’s on my Christmas card list for life

      1. As I noted on Todd’s site, Rizzo is a brilliant trader. But there were only two players on the World Series roster who were drafted and developed during his time with the Nats: a 1/1 pick (Strasburg) and a 1/6 pick (Rendon). Like most of us in life, Rizzo is very good at some things but not so good at others. And personnel decisions like the ones on Tuesday seem to indicate that he has no intention of working on some of his blind spots.

        The decade of draft/development futility is the reason the Nats fell off the cliff so quickly. You have to have a pipeline of cheap, controllable talent. A lot of the guys who were supposed to be the next wave to sustain things — Fedde, Kieboom, Robles — simply haven’t panned out. I scratch my head at how Rizzo and his guys can be such good evaluators of talent in other systems but so regularly over-value the ones they have on their own ranch.

        They also create problems by the rush to add guys to the 40-man. Maybe Antuna’s tools actually do turn into something one day, but he won’t have any options left by that time and will be in quite a pickle. I worry that they’re setting de la Rosa and Rutledge up in the same bad situation. If they develop into MLB-caliber players in two or three years, they’ll be short on options and hamstrung with any flexibility if they need to keep working on things.

        1. Robles, Suero, Soto, and Taylor were all drafted and/or developed since 2009 and were on the 2019 W.S. Roster, which brings the total to six. Rizzo should probably also get some credit for in-season FA/Waiver picks, too: Guerra, Rodney, Cabrera, and Parra (note: Adams was picked up as a waiver claim in 2018, but re-signed in December).

          Still, if your point is that Rizzo traded for more, you’re right: Hudson, Rainey, Ross, Doolittle, Kendrick, Turner, and Gomes (note: Suzuki signed as FA but was traded for in 2012). We all lamented the trades from ~2013-2018 that didn’t pan out, but I think if the Nats had gotten to the NLDS or NLCS in ’12, ’14, ’16, or ’17 (remember the joke about no DUIs at Rizzo’s Sports Bar?) he’d have been forgiven. It’s a near-miracle that none of the guys traded at the 2019 deadline have turned out to be significant when so many did the five years prior.

  7. Surprised that Drew Millas’ AFL didn’t earn him protection… (or Ribalta, Willingham or Knowles, though they’re less surprising). Catchers are the easiest to stash, and Millas acquitted himself well. But they gotta keep Antuna around, because Rizzo has hedged too much on Antuna being a real prospect despite all evidence.

    1. After Cronin and Alu, I think Millas was (and remains) the one by far the most at risk of being lost in the Rule 5 draft, certainly more at risk of being picked than any of the other four who they protected. That said, I’m still not sure I would have added a catcher who hit .211 at AA to the 40-man, unless there was some buzz about him after after what he did in the AFL. Frankly, I thought when they DFA’d Barrera last week that they were clearing the slot for Millas. They only have three catchers on the 40-man at the moment.

        1. One of the reasons the Brewers traded Gilbert Lara to the Nats was they didn’t want to be reminded they spent $4 million on a guy who never hit at any level.

    3. Antuna must have some “dirt” on Rizzo! A BA average of .231(over 1500 AB) in mostly A ball is more than underwhelming!

  8. You would think that given the extensive minor league stints that MLB requires as opposed to other sports that the most important thing in judging a player would be how well he performs on the field.

    This past season, Alu was the best player in the Nats minor league system offensively and defensively. If a player is to be judged solely on performance, it’s no a brainer that Alu gets placed on the 40 man roster, and is given a reasonable chance to make the Nats out of Spring training. MLB is odd in that organizations try to convince themselves that factors other than performance shade a players eval. Because Alu was not a high draft pick, because Alu is slightly older than a typical prospect, he is devalued, despite his performance.

    If Yasul Antuna had Jake Alu’s season, he would be penciled in the Nats’ starting lineup already, but because Alu was previously considered an organizational player, many don’t want to see what is clear: Alu can play, like Joey Menseses can play.

    1. Alu was hardly devalued by the Nats, after being drafted in 2019 he got his feet wet in short season ball. In 2021 he skipped to high A and got a mid-season promotion to AA where he started the next year. he then got a mid-season promotion to AAA. now he’s on the 40 man roster. whether he makes any prospects lists or not it seems clear to me the Nats see something in him.

      1. I think Pilchard and Dr. Fred are spot-on here. The Nats f.o. has handled Alu perfectly so far.

        The monike Jake ‘no respect’ Alu comes about because he has never made any Top 30 lists ever. Despite producing at every level.

  10. Last offseason, the Nats trusted Kieboom so little that they brought back Escobar and brought in Hernandez, Franco, and Fox, all of whom could play 3B. Fox is the only one who is left, and he absolutely looked like a deer in the headlights in an MLB batter’s box (2 for 25).

    This offseason, we’re starting with Kieboom, Vargas, and Alu. Vargas has almost no pop but wasn’t awful so can serve as the insurance policy. Do they bring in someone else, let Kieboom and Alu have a truly open competition, or has Carter been told that it’s his to lose? My guess is that the scales are weighted toward Kieboom, but there still should be a roster spot for which Alu could have a good chance in a utility role. (There’s no guarantee that Garcia is going to hit at 2B, either.)

    Longer term, if House is thought of as the heir at 3B, he’s probably still three years away. Trey Lipscomb was an interesting draft pick (3d round) who I think will be boom or bust. We’ll probably know next season one way or the other whether he’s a legit MLB prospect. Most of the big college hitters drafted in recent years have quickly fallen into the “bust” category, but we’re gonna get it right some year, right?

  11. Even though de la Rosa now has been anointed, he better not look back, as objects in the mirror are closer than they appear. He’s going to have to produce quickly at A+ or get caught in the wash of outfielders. I would guess that Wood, White, and probably McKenzie also will start at Wilmington. Green, Lile, Quintana, and Cox likely will be at Fredericksburg. I (and I assume the front office) am hoping for a two-level year for Wood. We’ll have to see about the others. The FredNat four will be pretty young/inexperienced. But if Green truly is a superstar, he should dominant and advance. We’ll see. And don’t forget Vaquero at the complex. Funny how quickly how he went from top-5 in the organization to almost an afterthought.

    Anyway, with those guys plus Hassell, that’s TEN outfielders of note. All we’ve got to do is find three or four who can make it . . .

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