NationalsProspects.com

Tuesday’s News & Notes

Team Yesterday Today Pitching Probables
Rochester OFF DAY vs. Lehigh Valley, 7:05 p.m. Cavalli (1-2, 6.18) vs. Falter (0-0, 0.00)
Harrisburg OFF DAY @ Portland, 6 p.m. Guasch (2-5, 6.26) vs. Bello (4-2, 1.60)
Wilmington OFF DAY vs. Jersey Shore, 6:35 p.m. Merrill (0-1, 6.19) vs. Russell (0-2, 4.97)
Fredericksburg OFF DAY @ Delmarva, 11:05 a.m. Saenz (2-0, 3.71) vs. Long (0-1, 3.57)

Rochester Red Wings (24-12, 1st, 4GA I.L. East)
About the only thing hotter than Rochester is Texas, thanks to a nine-game win streak and having won 15 of 18. However, the Red Wings are only slightly better than International League’s average in runs scored (5.39 vs. 4.90) and runs allowed (4.64 vs. 4.90). Sorry, Mr. Lee, but this is no ancient Chinese secret; Rochester has had a fair amount of luck lately. This week Lehigh Valley—the last team to win back-to-back games against the Red Wings—comes to Frontier Field for six, including a late-morning start on Thursday.

Harrisburg Senators (16-16, 4th, 4GB E.L. Swouthwest)
Conversely, the Senators have lost their last three series, including a 2-4 stretch against the first-place Flying Squirrels last week. Likewise, they’re at .500 despite a positive 19-run differential, fueled by having the third-best offense in the Eastern League. This week, they head to Portland for the first of two trips to New England this season.

Wilmington Blue Rocks (16-14, 2nd, 7½ GB Sally Lg. North)
Believe it or not, Wilmington is also underperforming its Pythagorean projection (18-12), thanks to its second-best team pitching (3.77 R/G vs. 4.92). In the four games that were not fogged out last week, the Blue Rocks took three of them. This week, they return to Frawley Stadium for six. For those of you who are superstitious, the writing’s on the wall for Sunday, which is when Wilmington will have a Yasel Antuna poster giveaway.

Fredericksburg Nationals (19-13, 1st, 2GA C.L. North)
Fredericksburg lost its first series of the season last week to Kannapolis, reducing its lead in the Carolina League North to two games. At the risk of pointing out that Det. Holmes remains constipated, the offense has cooled considerably though it’s still more than run better than the second-best offense in the league (6.81 vs. 5.76 R/G) and nearly two runs better than the league average (5.00). This week, it’s games 4-9 of 24 vs. Delmarva, beginning with a school-day game at 11:05 this morning.

11 Commments

  1. Hard to believe at this point that there have been no promotions at Fredericksburg. What’s the term for the opposite of ‘Rhineharted’?

    1. At the same time, what’s the rush? One of the most difficult things to develop in young players is confidence, and if they’re going good, why force something? Most of the real prospects, particularly among the hitters, are very young. De la Rosa really struggled last year. House and White have fought injuries. Theophile is older but has never been anywhere near this good before, so let him keep going for a while.

      1. On the hitters, KW, you have to understand that the roster is so overstuffed that there are players,like Yoander Rivero, who have regressed because they can’t get enough playing time.

        White and House are 18 so I can understand keeping them there longer but the others are not.

        1. blame major league baseball for getting rid of two teams, it will take a while for everything to shuffle out

          1. Absolutely, but the Nationals are Major League Baseball. So they’re not absolved from these decisions.

            Also, the shuffling process doesn’t have to be so needlessly prolonged. I get it when Wilmington is willing to throw Jordy Barley out there day after day, despite him looking severely overmatched at A+ with a 35% K% and .151 AVG. He’s still only 22. Maybe there’s something interesting there.

            But Cole Daily (INF) and Gage Canning (OF) are both 25 and hitting .256/.370/.282 and .081/.103/.135, respectively. What more are we meant to learn from this?

      2. What’s the rush?

        Juan Soto.

        He’s under team control for three more seasons (including this one). If the intention is to build a team around him and extend him, then these prospects need to start contributing in the majors ASAP.

        If our window for being competitive is predicated on Brady House, Jeremy de la Rosa and others in Fredericksburg living up to their potential and reaching the majors in 2025, then we need to trade Juan Soto yesterday. Each passing day his trade value declines, and if I were him I certainly wouldn’t be content to lose 100 games for three straight years on the promise of potentially not doing that in the 4th-7th years.

  2. We’ll always be pushing for promotions in the comments on this site – it’s part of the fun. Ideally, I think I’d want to see 100 AB and take a look at their LH/RH split, and how they do against the better arms at their current level. Also with 6-game series they don’t go “around the league” at the same rate. This doesn’t even account for whether their baserunning or defense is appropriate for the next level.

    I can dream about putting a team of young studs and FA’s around Juan Soto three years from now, but given the MASN financial debacle and sale of the team, I don’t see it happening.

  3. None of the Nats top prospects are close to contributing on the MLB level, except for Luis Garcia, and the Nats are holding him back to gain service time leverage. FWIW, if anything the Nats have too aggressive in promoting Cavalli. Brady House has 8 ABs in May; so, let’s get him acclimated to playing again before promoting him. Seems like a player has a hot week, and there are calls for a promotion. The time will come, but the season is still young.

    To the extent anything other than money is going to keep Soto in DC, it would be winning. Accelerating the promotions of prospects is not going to help on the winning front. See, Joan Adon.

  4. What they’ve done with Adon was and remains bizarre. He should be in AA — period. Maybe he’d be really good in AA . . . although he was only marginal at A+ in 2021. I have no earthly idea why they think a guy with 4.97 ERA at A+ is ready for the majors . . . and he’s not. Just hope they’re not ruining a talented guy with this strange experiment.

    I certainly understand the Soto timeline . . . but it’s ambitious, if not foolhardy, to think that they’ll be back in contention in three years. They just don’t have a lot of high-level talent in the upper minors. Ownership is in flux. The next free agent class isn’t good. So it’s hard to see where they get the players. Stras would have to return cured and in postseason form. Cavalli and Henry would have to make it as high-level starters. And still they’d be short some hitters, barring rapid rises by House, White, de la Rosa, Infante, et al.

    The other big Soto question is whether he’s sold enough on the franchise to have lil’ bro sign with the Nats.

Comments are closed.