Offseason Update: Nov. 2, 2019
The World Series is over and there’s no affiliated baseball being played. Like a dog that catches the car, we’re in a weird “what do we do now?” kind of place.
It’s too early to start up the usual offseason routine, which has been tied to the end of the AFL and the deadline for adding players to the 40-man roster (November 20). I know it’s very tempting to do so, but to me, that means making December and January longer… and they’re already too long*.
* If you haven’t noticed, retailers have already begun their holiday full-court press because Thanksgiving is so “late” this year.
So, like five years ago, we’ll have to muddle through and start a new set of digital footprints…
TRANSACTION UPDATE
More to come as the official free agency period comes on Monday, though it should be noted that just two (2) of the three (3) players remaining from the 2013 Draft are not on the 40-man already (Drew Ward and David Masters; Austin Voth, respectively).
- C Spencer Kieboom elected free agency
- RHP Tomas Alastre reassigned from Hagerstown to Fredericksburg
- C Allan Berrios activated from the 60-Day I.L.
- 3B Guillermo Tatis released
- OF Dariel Cotes released
WINTER LEAGUE UPDATE
Ordinarily, this would be a good source of filler content, but the contingent of notable minor-leaguers is miniscule thus far – Rafael Bautista and Joan Baez; Yadiel Hernandez if you are a consumer of CBD, THC or LSD.
Bautista is 3-for-16 in six games, but hasn’t appeared in a game since Tuesday. Baez has given up six hits and two walks across six appearances and six scoreless innings, including one inning last night. Perhaps we’ll get one or two more players in two weeks when both the Puerto Rican and Australian Winter Leagues start up on November 15.
Great photo! That five years ago photo reminds me — Spike Lives!
Sad to say goodbye to Spencer Kieboom. His injury this year was the worst timing ever.
There are a lot of variables with the Nats catching situation. Stay tuned.
Even more so now that the Nats have declined Gomes’s player option, which is a big surprise. Yes, he was pretty bad the first 4 months of the season, but he righted the ship and provided what Matt Weiters didn’t: steady defensive play in the playoffs.
It is starting to look like the Nats are really clearing the decks for next year. Assuming ownership doesn’t reduce payroll, Rizzo will have more than $100 million to completely remake the team. Strap in, it’s likely to be a wild ride.
The spotrac website does a great job at tracking team salaries. According to their website, the Nats currently have $109 million committed in 2020 accounting for active payroll, retained salary, deferred salary and “buried” salary. The luxury tax threshold rises to $208 million in 2020. So, even if the Nats are dead set on staying under the threshold, they have a lot of flexibility.
My guess is that Strasburg re-signs, but Rendon signs elsewhere. Hope we re-sign both. Have also heard, that the Nats are trying to negotiate a more team friendly deal with Gomes.
If mlb rumors plots Donaldson in Texas Rangers hot corner that says volumes
Henley can sympathize with Spencer . Without the concussion Bob might have been long service backup catcher in Montreal and beyond
Luke : World Series trophy now we owe Mike Rizzo a top ten best trades of his Nats tenure ( as Hannibal Smith says in A team with a cigar lit like Trader Jack McKeon : love it when a plan comes together )
1 ) Howie for MacKenzie Mills
2) Longhorn Kyle Johnston ( was his great great grandfather a true Texas Ranger on horse ?) for Daniel Hudson who ironically enough was once a White Sox on DL tosses off the shelf due to all that pitching Sox brought in
3) that Game securing hit by Howies dugout dance partner … Adam Eaton for 3 arms
4) guys fill out the rest
That DSL crop from two summers ago is slowly seeing the ceiling reached @ GCL. Tatis. But Tovar still around.
Why does a guy get winter rostered @ FRED like Alastre??
Alastre bumped up to FRED for December Rule 5 rules??
Hypothetical : Stras goes home to Padres ? Which free agents does Rizzo look at to add to depth chart between Max , Corbin , Fedde Voth , Ross ( if he doesn’t leave FA)…
Kole Calhoun is a free agent , Mr Rizzo
What is the deal with Yadiel Hernandez? With good BA and 33 HRs yet not listed as a Prospect?
He’s 32 years old and defensively suspect. Like Yunesky Maya, I suspect he was a means to an end for establishing credibility in Latin America.
Spot on, Luke.
Luke you mean like been to Disney bought the tee shirt for evidence ??
Raudy Read is out of options and will either be DFA’d or Severino’d (traded for a couple of broken bats). Barrerra will be the new shuttle catcher, possibly joined by Gushue, particularly with the Reetz injury.
My understanding is that Gomes and the Nats are mutually interested in a reunion. The Nats declined the option because they weren’t going to pay him $9M. There are several second-tier catchers on the market who will be available in the $4-6M range if that doesn’t work out. Suzuki is only good for half time at best, so they’re not going to have Read on the MLB roster.
Agreed KW
Next summer some of us should frequent fun Fresno. I hear the atmosphere is great minus the botched taco eating contest where the metrosexual father acted like a ten year old …inverted affiliations can work out especially with a result in Houston as it did
Now player development will be truly PD and procurement . Any modern baseball adjectives I forgot ???
I’m curious about whether they will add Drew Ward to the 40-man to avoid minor-league free agency. There are arguments to be made pro and con. I don’t think they are going to be adding a truckload of guys to avoid their Rule 5 eligibility (another discussion to be had at some point — anyone have a good list of guys eligible?), so I think they will have a slot for Ward if they want to do it.
Ward will turn 25 in a couple of weeks. His K rate took a frightening jump this season, his walk rate declined, but his ISO did improve noticeably. He posted a 138 wRC+ at AA at age 24, but still without the significant power they’ve been wanting to see since he was drafted.
My guess is that they don’t add him to the 40-man. To be clear, I’m not wishing that on him, just speculating on what the team will do. It’s always sad if a guy we’ve followed this closely does leave the organization.
I agree on Ward. It’s slightly tempting, but the BB/K is atrocious and we already have one corner infielder on the roster who doesn’t project as a steady major league player; do we need two?
Really the only guy I think could be added today is Mario Sánchez, but the deadline is in about five hours and there’s been no indication he will be. I’m not holding my breath.
Other R5 eligibles…the list is long, but the notables are probably Sterling Sharp, Steven Fuentes, and Ben Braymer. I’m hesitant on Braymer because he had an absolutely awful year, but in fairness, the PCL was a killing field for pitchers this year. I don’t think any position players get the nod, with Tres Barrera having already been promoted.
To me, the before-Rule 5 must-add is Fuentes, in part because the suspension would actually make it easier for another team to carry him for the whole season (as others here have pointed out, maybe Sao). I think he’s actually one of the top pitching prospects in the organization, even more valuable now that he has looked viable as a starter.
I’m conflicted on Sharp, who definitely helped his cause in AZ. I doubt he could stick with an MLB team right now, even Balto. It would also be kinda weird having a 40-man slot tied up by him when he’s certainly behind Crowe in the pecking/possibly-needed-in-2020 order, and probably behind Braymer as well on that list. (To that end, I could also see Sanchez being potentially more valuable in 2020 specifically than Sharp.) I won’t be surprised if Sharp is added, but I also won’t be upset if he isn’t.
I’ve noted a few times my concern about potentially losing Andrew Lee in Rule 5 if he isn’t protected. He’s the kind of hard-throwing reliever who could stick in an MLB ‘pen, plus he has the maturity to handle the jump, and he flashed in AZ. On the opposite side of the ledger, he has that “maturity” because he’s older. He’s also on his third elbow and hasn’t pitched much above A+.
(Didn’t we decide that Condra-Bogan has another year before he’s Rule 5-eligible?)
Condra-Bogan actually has two or three years left, I believe, since he was an indie-ball pickup before latching on with Kansas City. I’d have to go back and check, although it’s fairly academic at his age.
Sharp’s stuff is really good, and his season stats would look a lot better if not for one really awful start at Double-A. I do think he’ll be taken if he’s not protected. He’s a notable prospect who can eat innings and has a “carry tool” in his ability to rack up groundballs at an elite rate. Maybe he’s not a slam dunk because he was injured for much of this year and hasn’t pitched at Triple-A, but I think he’s pretty close to MLB-ready and would be a good flier for a team like the Orioles or the Blue Jays that could use a pitcher who keeps the ball on the ground.
Lee just doesn’t have much cachet as a prospect, he’s old, and he really has limited experience above the A-ball ranks. I’m not worried about him being selected in the Rule 5 draft, and if he is, well, I wish him all the best.
Reetz might have had an outside chance to be added before Rule 5, but not now with the injury.
Hey Sao, can you please elaborate on the deadline you were speaking about in your post? You said 5 hours left. TY
Before the official minor league free agency deadline. I saw Greg Holland, for instance, is officially gone as of today (no surprise there). The transactions log doesn’t say anything about Mario Sanchez or anyone else, so they may have already signed new minor league deals, or the transactions log could be late (which happens all the time, especially in the offseason).
If I counted correctly, the Nats only have 30 folks currently on their 40-man roster, plus there are several who are out of options for 2020 — Taylor, Difo, Ad. Sanchez, Read, Ross, Fedde (some will be back, so will have to be DFA’d/traded). Anyway, they’ve got plenty of room to add three or four players before the Rule 5 deadline if they so desire. Will they? I doubt it. I do think that the extra 40-man space gives them some latitude to add someone like Sharp who may not be ready for an MLB debut in 2020.
Sao — I agree that they probably won’t add Andrew Lee. I just think there’s a case to be made for it. Regardless of whether they’re on the 40-man, I hope Lee, Condra-Bogan, and Istler all get NRI invites to the big-league camp in the spring.
I just double-checked, and Voth is also out of options — optioned in ’17, ’18, and ’19.
I just don’t see Rizzo as the complacent type. Furthermore, there are plenty of options in free agency and the trade market, and the Nationals have depth.
Everything begins with Strasburg & Rendon. If they are not coming back, then the team will have to move to plan B and the alternative plans have sometimes worked out quite well (Daniel Murphy). There are very attractive free agents out there who fit the Nats pedigree (like Bumgarner) and the Nationals have quite a bit of inventory from which to trade for a young controllable difference maker at catcher – if any such player exists. The team knows which players perform best at Nats Park and I’ll always appreciate the decision to bring in Murphy as a Nats killer we brought to our own side.
The team has done its homework on the options. Does Rizzo wait the market out, seeing as his early strike options last few years (Rosenthal, Barraclough, Norris) were some of his worst moves.
The team does its best in free agency when it knows who it wants and goes out to get it. Suzuki was such a pickup, so was Corbin, so was Scherzer. I wonder which lefty reliever has the team’s attention?
It would be a big mistake to let Howie and Hudson go, for the investment it would take to keep them.
As for Rizzo, he always pulls the unexpected. So this will be a fascinating offseason, as he knows it’s very difficult to stay at the top. There was a lot of turnover from the roster last year, and we’ll see that again, no doubt.
If you’re looking for “unexpected,” here’s something I haven’t heard anyone talking about –what about a trade of Fedde and Taylor? Both are out of options, and it’s just hard to see roles for them with the big club next year. The 5th starter seems to be between Voth and Ross, with the “loser” in the ‘pen and McGowin as the shuttling next option (probably shuttling to Harrisburg?), perhaps with Crowe ready for an MLB debut as well. I have a hard time seeing the Nats tender Taylor and possibly be on the hook for $4M or more. (I’m not saying he couldn’t be a valuable reserve; I’m saying that they’re not going to pay $4M for that valuable reserve, maybe not even to Daddy Shark himself, particularly with Stevenson still pre-arb.)
Anyway, package Fedde and Taylor and see what you can get. It won’t be a huge return, but it’s much better than getting to the end of camp and doing that awkward dance they did with A.J. Cole, ultimately getting nothing. I’d settle for a competent middle reliever or two, if those still exist somewhere. Or maybe Fedde is that middle reliever to-be. It just seems that he would be worth more in trade as a potential 5th starter for a lot of teams.
Luke, are you going to do a new post on the BA Nats top 10 prospects? The first half of the list is reasonable; the second half includes THREE guys who didn’t play in 2019 and a fourth who really sucked and may be hurt (Denaburg). It’s so much easier to be a “prospect” than an actual producing player!