Juan Soto Named GCL MVP
Don’t look back, Victor Robles – but someone may be gaining on you.
At least as the Nationals’ top young OF prospect, that is, as 17-y.o. Juan Soto was named the 2016 Gulf Coast League Most Valuable Player as well as one of its postseason all-stars after leading the Rookie circuit with a .361 batting average and a .550 slugging percentage and finishing second in on-base percentage at .410.
Last summer, Soto was signed by the Nationals for $1.5 million, the most ever and nearly double the $900K shelled out in 2013 for Anderson Franco.
OK, now that we’ve dispensed with the obligatory (knee-jerk) comp and fawning over (other people’s) money spent, what lies ahead for Soto in ’17? He turns 18 next month but spent less than a week in Auburn, where he hit .429 (9-for-21) with three doubles in six games.
Could the Nationals start him in Hagerstown? Ten years ago, the Nationals started 18-y.o. Chris Marrero at Hagerstown after just 22 games in the GCL the previous summer, but the conventional wisdom is Dominican-born players need more time to acclimate to the American culture.
Unlike the windmill of a non-existent “scoreless game” (game always has a score, it begins with 0-0), I’ve given up tilting against the idea of fast-tracking position prospects, even if I can easily cite some mistakes (*cough* Brian Goodwin *cough*). The Nats have been successful enough often enough, period. Not to mention, they’re working with information that we don’t have.
So go ahead and think about taking a trip to Hagerstown next spring, or Woodbridge next summer; Juan Soto could very well play in one or both places in 2017.
Great year for Soto – what a talent! On a somewhat related note, was there finally any reason given as to why Franco started the season late? Was really looking forward to a big year from him.
Nope, and I don’t expect to hear anything definitive, either. Still looking for that memo where injuries or personal issues are considered classified information and can only be divulged under court order.
Yaaaasssss.
Always good to start your day with a Satchel Paige reference!
When the system is being run right, the top prospects always have someone gaining on them.
very well stated
Instructional League “roster.”
Includes a trio of July international FAs from this year, Antuna, Garcia and Sanchez. They join Soto, Franco and Robles, among other international signings. A long way from Smiley, we’ve come.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/washington-nationals-instructional-league-rosters/
Thanks, FG, for the Instructs. list. Nothing really stands out as far as omissions are concerned.
He doesn’t realy need any money, so I’ll bet Ryan Ripken will keep plugging away until they tear the uniform off.
Comparable to Bryan Harper, who would have been cut many years ago if not for his brother, amd now, barring injury, is ready to debut next year in the show.
J.D. Martin has to be the oldest player in instructs. in Nats history.
Martin is trying come back as a knuckleballer… it’s always intriguing when a former “regular” pitcher tries it (e.g. Steven Wright the pitcher, not the comerdian) which I’d imagine why they’re spending so much time on this experiment (see previous parenthetical).
Reminds me of the Rob Neyer line about the world being a better place when there are knuckleballers in baseball.
knuckler needs practice3
grissom. interesting that nats have Robles/Carey for Harrisburg 17.
maybe Perkins, Encarnacion and Evangalista for Potomac whoever
busts looose. Upshaw could bounce a bit with work?
Next april should be fun to see which kids off Auburn burn through
Hags.
Henley was right when he was in charge of farm. we will see some
division title flags in the future……
Does Soto project as a CF or as a corner?
Since he had more HRs than any other Nat OF at Viera or Auburn, and at age 17, I would think the hope is that he can have corner OF power.
Corner OF. He played 395 of 400 innings in RF (the other 5 as a mid-game replacement in CF). Prospects very rarely move into a more difficult defensive position as they develop. So it’s very unlikely Soto would transition to CF. But based on his baserunning performance (5 for 7 in SB attempts) he doesn’t appear to be all that fast either.
There was a question about Soto in yesterday’s BA Prospect chat: asking how he compared to another prospect, Ronald Acuna. The answer was quite complementary on Soto, although perhaps hinting at some limitations in the field:
“Soto’s a corner outfielder whose value is tied into what he does in the batter’s box, and he’s very, very good in that box.”
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-chat/#Hqib0Y20iDdhtjkE.99
Fangraphs had this to say about him last year, “Soto is a protoypical projection right fielder, with some muscle to add, projectable above average power, enough arm for right field, below average speed and enough feel to hit to tap into his power at times already.”
He is a 17 year old unacculturated kid! When was the last time that league had a 17 yo MVP? Irrational exuberance is unwelcome, but naysaying is totally premature for a person who has passed all developmental precedent outside of Bryce Harper.
Just for some perspective, Victor Robles had a year in the DSL at age 17, and played GCL-Auburn age 18 with comparable (if much longer as Auburn) success.
The Nats organization does not need CF for the forseeable Robles era. Soto is not alone among the Dominican outfield crop, and the CF of the future will be developed from the middle infield haul the Nats reeled in from the Dominican (Sanchez is barely 16(!) or will be one of the bright young unheraldeds we see going to instructionals (Evangelista).
I would imagine that some of the latin talent that is not in the instructionals is headed back to the Dominican camp this winter to be closer to home. Stephen Fuentes is the notable absentee from the BA list. Otherwise, only Austin Davidson’s absence raises an eyebrow. Perhaps he is ticketed for the AFL? Bostick, I suppose, is winter league material….
It’s tempting to try to read things into the instructional league roster but probably futile to do so. Mejia and Gutierrez are on it, but Davidson and Abreu aren’t. Davidson outdistanced Mejia in OPS by about .175 points. Maybe Davidson is taking college classes this fall. Maybe Davidson and Abreu already have a year or two of instrux under their belts. We don’t know.
Crownover started and pitched very well in an A+ playoff game. Maybe he’s already thrown all the innings they want him to throw. Guilbeau and Borne aren’t on the list, either.
There’s no Brinley, either, after his yo-yo year.
I still think there is a lot to read. For example, consider that Soto was a 16 yo signee last fall. He went to the instrux despite no game experience. First time ever for the club. In 2017, he started at GCL and skipped DSL and did as above.
This year the team has THREE such position players getting the fall fast track.
As for Abreu and Brinley, they are going to the AFL. No tears there.
I agree that pitchers are harder to read from this list. Borne started the year late. Guilbeau would have been good to include, and he is low level enough.
As for Davidson, anyone’s guess why he is not there. He is in my top 50 in the system — Mejia is not, as high as he was a year ago — but he is older than Mejia and took two years to get out of Hagerstown. Davidson couldn’t even get onto a roster until well into 2016. So he registers in a system that is bat-thin and let go of Schrock. But he had one foot out of the organization at this time last year. The Nats could have been just as patient with Jeff Gardner. Davidson has position versatility and he lasted, and became relevant to us this year. But he has a long way to go. In my mind, he is a level higher but a rung lower than Ian Sagdal, who did not get promoted but showed an impressive trajectory of adapting to the pro game this year.
Mejia is an ambiguous talent. He has the GCL Nats championship pedigree, and was decent on that team. After a meh 2014, his bat exploded, exploded in 2015 in short season despite his famous lack of walks. This year he got lots of playing time over a full season but showed none of the power, a lot less of the bat, and his defense keeps him from being taken seriously. Yet.
Mejia is one of those players who has enough skills that if the light goes on and he pulls it together, he can take a leap forward. Abreu’s numbers do not look impressive, but he really elevated his game as the year advanced, he closed well, and is a man on the rise. Statheading does not show that he is a dedicated workout guy and very coachable player, in the mold of Difo. We will hear more from him and I think the Nats have him in AFL because they think they can coach him up to get pushed to AA. They tried it with Ward last year; it seemingly failed but he is settled in at AA now and the AFL really helped.
No debate that Soto is the real fast-rising star here. The ones truly ticketed to succeed in the majors tend to move through the levels with some haste, as Turner and Glover have, and guys like Rendon and Harper did before him. Of course sometimes the haste has consequences (see Goodwin et al.). And sometimes it takes awhile for the light bulb to come on, even if the tools are there (Souza).
Abreu’s OPS is ~50 points higher than Mejia’s, and it’s due almost entirely to 55 walks for Abreu vs. 22 for Mejia. Now if Abreu could cut down on the 108 Ks (98 for Mejia). Both also had way too many Es: 26 for Mejia, 21 for Abreu.
Davidson basically doubled his number of walks and doubles in 2016, and he improved his OPS by 204 points over 2015, when he looked dead in the water. I’m not saying he’s ticketed for stardom, but an overall .820 OPS for the season will get you noticed, particularly in a system short on quality bats.
and then there are the Tanner Roarks.
KW, I am not disagreeing with you and suggesting Davidson is worthless. After all, I mentioned his absence and ranked him 44 in the system.
I just think Abreu’s rise and his ceiling go beyond overall numbers. He may be imperfect, but he has a higher ceiling for glove, pop, and speed. He ended the season very strong, even as Davidson petered out.
Your point about Souza is exactly what the instrux and the spring program are supposed to promote. putting the right wires in their to get the light bulb to go on. Be it Souza or Difo, whomever. There are those players in the Nats system and we will recall them next year at this time.