AFL/Offseason Update: Oct. 24, 2015
Four strong innings from John Simms and a pair of two-run rallies early helped the Rafters eclipse the Solar Sox, 5-1 and stop a three-game slide.
Simms allowed the lone Mesa run on a solo shot in the 3rd and three hits total. He walked one and struck out four and threw 57 pitches during the outing, his second for Salt River.
Christopher Bostick returned the lineup and played second base. He batted ninth and reached base twice with a single in the 6th and drew a walk in the 8th to go 1-for-3 overall. Defenisvely he had a putout and four assists.
Salt River wraps up the week with a day game today at home vs. Mesa.
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It’s a two-fer today, so let’s jump into the usual weekly post…
WINTER LEAGUE SIGHTINGS
The following players have appeared in Mexican Pacific League and the Dominican Winter League:
Rafael Bautista, Bruce Billings (Escogido, DWL)
Pedro Severino (Cibao, DWL)
Richard Bleier (Oriente, DWL)
Paul Demny (Culiacan, LMP)
THE POTOMAC NATIONALS
Like the Hagerstown Suns, Potomac went from contender to pretender to post a losing season for the first time since 2012. It’s tempting to compare this team to that team, but there are two key differences: (1) this team did no better on the road than it did at home (2) this team didn’t feel like it had underachieved. Obviously, #1 is objective — to paraphrase the grossly overrated Bill Parcells, your record is your record. And #2 is subjective — part of underachieving is a disconnect between expectation and actual performance, perceived or actual.
Lucas Giolito and Wilmer Difo were “as advertised”; Reynaldo Lopez was not. Drew Ward was a mixed bag. Rafael Bautista was hurt. This can be argued (and probably will be in the comments), but most of the other names either weren’t as highly regarded outside our bubble or there were reservations already about their prospect status.
The 2015 crew felt to me very much like the first couple of seasons I watched this team (2006, 2007): A couple of true prospects and a handful of maybes mixed in with “OGs” (organizational guys). This may be “old world order” returning, and with the parent club now drafting in the lower third, it might not be all that surprising.
And with that, I present the obligatory Top 5’s:
| TOP 5 BATS | TOP 5 ARMS |
| 1. Christopher Bostick, 2B, .253 GPA, .344 OBP | 1. Lucas Giolito, RHP, 2.71/1.96/1.22, 11.11 K/9IP |
| 2. Spencer Kieboom, C, .241 GPA, .346 SLG% | 2. Tyler Mapes, RHP, 2.38/2.78/1.22, 8.54 K/9, 4.18 K:BB |
| 3. Drew Ward, 3B, .237 GPA, 29E in 95G | 3. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, 4.09/2.95/1.22, 5HR in 99 IP |
| 4. Estarlin Martinez, OF, .238 GPA, .711 OPS in 2nd half | 4. Austen Williams, RHP, 2.59/3.22/1.09, .215 OBA |
| 5. Rafael Bautista, CF, .224 GPA, 23SB in 52G | 5. Phillips Valdez, RHP, 3.77/3.26/1.44, 58.1 LOB% |
No honorable mentions as we’re now well past the point of ignoring a player’s age or having repeated the level. Folks interested in seeing the entire team’s stats, can find them here.
Luke. Ty for your autumn work outside of dog walks .
I’ve been on the road for three weeks away from
My dog so I envy you!
Winter assignments are like saying to a guy: we still like
You and want you producing in 2016
This guy hopes Lerners don’t bring in one year
Productive Dusty Baker .
Luke your opinion on Branden Webb staying in Nats
Farm 2016??
Tulane green wave Mapes to number 2???
Luke, I mean this much more as a question than a quibble, since you got a long look at all things Potomac: what was your rationale for putting Lopez over Williams on the arms list? Williams posted better stats overall, but in most people’s minds, he’s not as much of a higher-ceiling “prospect” as Lopez, who did have a few dominant outings late in the season that reminded everyone why people are so high on him. I also understand that Williams was only at Potomac for part of the season since he started in Hagerstown.
I imagine that Drew Ward will be back at the Pfitz to start 2016, as he still needs some seasoning, both at the plate and with the glove, before being thrown to the wolves in AA.
Beyond the Mexican and Dominican winter leagues, Byron Kerr is reporting that Goodwin will play at Margarita in the Venezuelan Winter League.
In every Williams outing that I saw, I felt like he was more lucky than good, which is supported by a low BABIP of .259 in conjunction with a low K rate (5.89). His rather average FIP (3.22; most calculators use 3.20 as lg. avg. if it’s not available) also bears that out.
Lopez, on the other hand, felt to me like he was “working on something” because he was throwing so much offspeed/breaking stuff for someone capable of hitting a true 98 (over the plate for a strike) vs. a Cole Kimball 98 (in the dirt or over the catcher’s head). He’s also younger and did post a better FIP, which I pay attention to because it’s less volatile than ERA, especially in the minors where official scoring is (to be very kind) inconsistent.
Very good scoop. Thanks.
I only attended one P-Nats game this year (Giolito’s debut), the fewest I’ve seen in person since 2005 when I also went to only one. I tried to motivate myself to go see Williams pitch the last home game, but given how marginal a prospect he seems to be and how bad the rest of the team was with Giolito and Difo having moved up I just couldn’t do it.
The most shocking P-Nat stat to me was the 49 team home runs hit this year, which broke the all time record lowest for a P-Nats squad by a whopping 32. By comparison, that 2005 squad hit 122 HRs. The 2005 squad was bad but could at least be fun to watch at times. The 2015 squad was both bad and boring.