The BA Prospect Handbook, Part One
I might not have been waiting by the mailbox as I did in years past, but the arrival of the Baseball America handbook still merits the stop-drop-and-read treatment. Over the next couple of posts, I’ll pass along my thoughts.
You’ll not be shocked to learn that — yet again — the moves the Nats made in December were not reflected in the book. As much as I understand it, I do have to wonder if the folks in Durham are doing enough to account for this. In the meantime, you’ll have to adjust your reactions to some of the rankings.
Without the Souza trade, the Nats were still ranked 12th — up from 21st in last year’s book. As you might imagine, a lot of weight is given to yet-to-throw-a-professional-pitch Erick Fedde, viewed through a prism of praise for past gambles on injury-risk players that have paid off (Anthony Rendon) or seem about to (Lucas Giolito). Obviously, the additions of Trea Turner and Joe Ross would have to improve that ranking; how much is the stuff that comment sections were made for 😉
Let’s review how last year’s Top 30 fared:
Graduated (2) — Aaron Barrett, Blake Treinen
Traded (3) — Robbie Ray, Nathan Karns, Zach Walters
Rule 5 (1) — Adrian Nieto
Waived (1) — Eury Perez
Released (1) — Christian Garcia
Dropped Out (5) — Matt Purke, Jeff Kobernus, Brett Mooneyham, Robert Benincasa, Erik Davis
Perhaps the most encouraging trend is that we’re finally seeing a Top 30 with only “one hand” of 25-or-older guys (including Souza), though eight of them will turn 24 by the end of July. So this might be a hiccup unless we see more guys from the D.R. bubble up (hey, that rhymes!) the way eight of the top 30 have over the past two years.
With that, I’ll close with the Top 15 from the book and pick up on nos. 16-31 in the next post. Last year’s ranking, if applicable, in parentheses:
| 1. Lucas Giolito (1) | 6. A.J. Cole (2) | 11. Austin Voth (15) |
| 2. Michael Taylor (7) | 7. Wilmer Difo | 12.Tony Renda (13) |
| 3. Reynaldo Lopez | 8. Drew Ward (17) | 13. Pedro Severino (16) |
| 4. Erick Fedde | 9. Brian Goodwin (3) | 14. Jakson Reetz |
| 10. Nick Pivetta (22) | 15. Sammy Solis (6) |
I just do not understand how they can rank Fedde, who hasn’t thrown a pitch, higher than AJ Cole who pitched at AAA last season and looks primed to contribute at the big league level. It is a small quibble honestly but I would simply have flip flopped the two.
That and they seem to be the only group that has high praise for Nick Pivetta.
I guess my real question is do they think Cole has regressed or has the rest of the farm system just gotten that much better for him to drop 4 spots after a successful season in the high minors.
Law mentioned Pivetta in his write up as a legit SP prospect that needs more consistency with his secondary stuff. I think he profiles as a guy who could jump up the lists next year.
FWIW, I don’t know about BA, but Kiley McDaniel@ Fangraphs talked about Cole quite a bit. He says there are mental toughness questions with him and concerns that the lack of a plus secondary pitch is causing his K rate to slip at upper levels. Most likely I think he takes his leads from scouts, and says that most teams are kind of down on him, and strongly prefer Lopez so he lowered his grade from where he originally had it.
Cole’s drop on nearly all the prospect lists has been one of the biggest negative trends that they seem to indicate. Time will tell. He blew through AA at 22, though, and there’s no pressure for him to be called up this year at 23, so he’s still got a little time to refine the secondary pitches and figure things out.
It is odd because Keith Law ranked him pretty highly (52) on his and all of the others have dropped him.
Law has Cole in the Top 100, but at #98. MLB.com has Cole ranked at #52, actually moving up a bit. Kiley McDaniel did say about Cole that he may be falling victim to a bit of prospect fatigue – he’s been on the lists a long time, and while he has advanced steadily (especially since returning to the Nationals) he’s lost the shine that goes with newer prospects.
I have noticed that newer prospects (like Fedde) tend to be ranked higher, because they’re all projection and haven’t struggled or been challenged yet.
Turner might rank #2 ahead of Taylor. His hit tool projects to be a lot better and he has all the other tools short of Taylor’s huge arm.
Ross probably would rank #6 ahead of AJ Cole and behind Fedde.
For scouts Fedde projects to be another Zimmermann type top of the rotation starter. Place him with Giolito and Lopez add in Cole and then Ross plus Trienen and you already have another starting rotation in the wings behind the 6 currently in place. It’ll be interesting to see how they and it all develop.
Peric – I don’t think I’ve seen any scouting report suggest that Turner has any more than single digit home runs in his future. Also; there are questions as to whether he can stick at short – I think on arm strength rather than range, but can’t remember. Seems to be fairly sure handed though.
Taylor, on the other hand, has 25+ home run potential; and gold glove CF in his future.
They’re both intriguing skill sets, but I’d give them (all admittedly from my reading of scouting reports):
Taylor
Hitting for average 40
Hitting for power 65
Speed 65
Arm 65
Glove 70
Turner
Hitting for average 60
Hitting for power 45
Speed 70 (I heard something about 75-80, but an injury last year?)
Arm 55
Glove 55
I’d be happy we have both, to be honest. Both could have pretty productive ML careers – you just want to know how much you want to rely on them.
I’ve read 2 scouting reports that mention Turner having double digit homer pop IF he tries to do it but that comes at the expense of contact and diminishes his ability to be a viable lead off hitter. I’ve also seen most scouts think he will be an average shortstop defensively. Not a wizard with the glove but not Asdrubal Cabrera either.
Like you said though both would be nice to have.
Taylor can be an elite CF that hits 15 homers and steals bases even if he only hits .240-250 at the big league level. He holds an above average walk rate to go along with his high K rate so a .250 average would probably equate to a .325-330 OBP. Elite defense plus average offense and good baserunning equals a very valuable player.
Agree Trea Turner projects better as a Lombo-like lead-off hitter with more speed and the ability to play second base (given his arm) at a very high level. He is not a shortstop in the majors. That is why Rizzo isn’t done improving the MI in his system yet.
Taylor is the CF heir apparent to Span. His defense pretty much guarantees it. Goodwin is now vying for the corner outfield spot that will soon be vacated by the aging Werth. The interesting trade of Souza opened it all wide open to him. Its his to lose but he will have competition from Vettleson who does have the Ankiel arm, is very athletic and also has yet to show the power scouts claim he is capable of.
Well, different from Lombo in at least one important respect: Taylor seems like he can hit. Lombo is just this side of organizational depth after flopping in AAA last year and being traded for “cash considerations” (often as low as $1 for minor league players that are release candidates).
And I see that I ready too quickly, that Peric meant Trea Turner as the Lombo-like leadoff hitter. Mea culpa. The big difference between Turner and Lombo is that Turner can fly.
Taylor: contact, contact, contact. If he can reduce the strikeouts, he’ll be a star. This is a huge year for him, as the Nats want him to show that he’s ready to take over for Span in 2016. He made a tremendous step forward last year; he’s just got to maintain and refine.
Michael Taylor accomplishes what Michael Taylor wants. If I have to attend all of his local games to inspire him to more three home run performances as I did for my lone trip to Harrisburg, I shall do it. MT gonna be bigger than MJ in DC!
It is notable that anyone who saw Taylor play in Harrisburg last year experiences him as a sure thing. Watching a player transcend his stats is more impressive than stats. Hard not to see him continuing his advance in Syracuse this year.