Thursday’s News & Notes
| Team | Yesterday | Today | Pitching Probables |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rochester | Won, 5-3 | @ Lehigh Valley, 6:45pm | J. Kent (1-0, 7.27) vs. B. Wilson (3-5, 7.23) |
| Harrisburg | Lost, 4-2 | vs. Somerset, 6:30pm | Ogasawara (2-1, 2.29) vs. Rivas (2-3, 7.11) |
| Wilmington | Lost, 3-1 | vs. Bowling Green, 6:35pm | Y. Tejeda (1-3, 4.82) vs. Kartsonas (2-1, 4.91) |
| Fredericksburg | Won, 5-0 | vs. Hill City, 6:35pm | Portorreal (0-1, 3.94) vs. Oakie (0-3, 4.65) |
| FCL Nationals | Lost, 7-6 (8 inn.) |
OFF DAY | |
| DSL Nationals | OFF DAY | @ DSL Tigers1 @ 10am |
• Champlain (W, 5-1) 5IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 7K, HR, HBP
• Yean (SV, 9) 1IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 0K
• Pinckney 3-4, R, SB, CS
• King 2-5, 2B, RBI, 2K
• Barrera 1-1, 2R, 3BB, 2RBI
The Red Wings scored all their runs in the 2nd but got enough pitching to beat the IronPigs, 5-3. Chandler Champlain picked up his fifth win with all three Lehigh Valley runs allowed on four hits (one HR) and a walk. He struck out seven. Four relievers each put up a goose egg, with holds going to Andre Granillo, PJ Poulin, and Seth Shuman, and the save going to Eddie Yean. Andrew Pincknew led the Rochester hit column with three singles, followed by Seaver King with a single and a double.
Somerset 4 Harrisburg 2
• Luckham (L, 3-5) 7IP, 10H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 2K
• E. Mejia 1IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 3K
• Wallace 3-5, R, 2B
• S. Brown 2-5, R, HR, RBI
Harrisburg got 13 runners on base but was only able to push across two as Somerset doubled ’em up, 4-2. Kyle Luckham scattered ten hits but let in three runs over seven innings. He walked one and struck out two in his fifth loss. Sam Brown homered to break up the shutout and singed while Cayden Wallace had two safeties and a two-bagger to lead the Senators offense, which went 1-for-10 with RISP and left ten men on base.
Bowling Green 3 Wilmington 1
• Maddox (L, 3-5) 5IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 6K, BK, WP
• Biven 2IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 1K
• Petry 2-4, 2B(10)
• A. Feliz 2-4
The Blue Rocks’ slide extended to five games with a 3-1 loss to the Hot Rods. Riley Maddox took the loss despite turning in a solid five innings of two-run ball on three hits and two walks with six whiffs. Wilmington barely avoided the shutout, pushing across the long run on a two-out RBI by Ethan Petry in the bottom of the 9th. Petry and Angel Feliz both went 2-for-4 to lead the Blue Rocks’ seven-hit offense.
Fredericksburg 5 Hill City 0
• Tepper (W, 1-0) 5IP, 4H, 0R, 2BB, 4K
• Amaral 2IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 4K
• Willits 2-4, 2R, HR(5), RBI, 2K
• James 2-4, R, 2RBI
• Moroknek 1-3, 3B, BB
Fredericksburg’s steamroll through the Carolina League continued with a 5-0 shutout of Hill City for their seventh straight win. Mikey Tepper pitched five full innings for the first time in his career as he picked up his first win of ’26. Led by Austin Amaral, three relievers combined for four scoreless to notch the FredNats’ fourth whitewash. Eli Willits singled and homered while Coy James singled twice and drove in two to lead the Fredericksburg offense. Roster moves: RHP Austin Amaral demoted from Wilmington.
FCL Mets 7 FCL Nationals 6 (8 inn.)
• Bothwell 3IP, 5H, 5R, 5ER, 0BB, 4K, HR
• Cerkownyk (L, 1-1) 1IP, 0H, 2R, 1ER, 0BB, 0K, HBP, WP
• Arias 3-4, 2R, 2B, HR, 2RBI
• Tavares 3-4, R, 2B, 2RBI, SB
• Cortesia 2-5, CS
The F-Nats erased an early 5-0 deficit and took a 6-5 lead in the 8th but were walked off by the F-Mets, 7-6. Ty Bothwell was dinged for five runs on five hits, including a two-run HR over three innings. The loss went to Brady Cerkownyk on a pair of sac flies after a wild pitch moved the free runner to third, a hit batsman and steal put two runners into scoring position with nobody out.
A note for the big board: Jackson Kent (2024 draftee) is playing for the York Revolution of the Atlantic League.
I wonder if players who decide to play indy ball are the ones that don’t end up on the transaction list as having left the Nats org. (I presume anyone can leave the Nats org in the off season to play indy ball). They aren’t retiring and I don’t think they show up as “released”. (I wonder if the Nats still have Jackson Kent’s “rights” – otherwise, players could go to indy ball and be available to any MLB org.)
By the way, looking through the Atlantic League rosters, there are 5 ex-Nats:
Wilmer Difo, Alejandro De Aza, Nick Senzel, Josh Palacios, Blake Rutherford
The Atlantic league also has some former Nats farmhands:
Viandel Pena, Tommy Kane, Carlos De La Cruz, Osvaldo Abreu
The American Association has Brady Lindsly, Delino DeShields Jr., and Frankie Tostado
Hey Bob I’m the one that maintains the Big Board. Thanks for the Jackson Ross tip. I’ll update the board.
MILB.com rosters frequently “miss” releases, and thus players end up sticking on that big board in XST until we figure out where they are.
FYI, Players can NOT just “leave to play indy ball” though; they’re under a standard minor league contract to a team; Indy ball is exactly that: independent of any affiliation or relationship to any minor league team. Players there have been released from Milb contracts, or were never drafted in the first place. They can however go play winter league … in discussion and partnership with the team.
From yesterday, Kevin R mentioned that both Yoyo and King had high BABIP. Could someone explain this statistic a little bit? If someone is really crushing the ball, can’t more balls get through the infield? In other words, can it be more than just luck?
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls in Play. So if you make contact with the ball and put it into play, what’s your batting average on those balls?
With enough data in the sample, BABIP should normalize to right around .290 to .300 for most hitters.
So, if a player’s BABIP is like .350 … they’re getting “lucky” with some of the balls they’re putting into play, and one might expect their actual production to regress back to the mean. In the reverse, if someone’s BABIP is like .200 … they’re getting really unlucky with balls in play, and you might expect them to improve back to the mean.
Yes, there are exceptions; not every hitter is made equal. Tony Gwynn’s career BABIP was like. 340, so yes if you have a very good hit tool, you’re not going to regress to .290. Also, slap hitters/good bunters also maintain pretty good BABIPs. Remember Nyjer Morgan? his career BABIP was .336, which is crazy b/c his career BA was .282. Players badly impacted by shifts usually have their BABIP’s shredded.
So, as for Morales and King … I’d say that i’d be really worried about Morales regressing b/c his hit tool isn’t the best, while King may maintain it b/c he had a 50 hit tool.
BABIP is a sign that certain stats–e.g., batting average for hitters and ERA for pitchers–are misleading. It’s a more useful signal for pitchers than for hitters, however. Batting average does not distinguish between the line drive single over the SS’s head or a 13-hopper to the SS hole that results in an infield single. A high BABIP for a hitter is evidence that “too many” of those 13-hoppers have turned into hits rather than outs, and that some regression to the mean is coming. The problem for batters is that there is relatively wide variation in “true” BABIPs. Fast guys have higher BABIPs. Guys who hit a lot of line drives have higher BABIPs. Lefties have lower BABIPs because a higher percentage of GBs go to the right side of the infield, which are easier to convert into outs compared to the left side So, you are correct that “crushing the ball” can result in a higher BABIP that’s based on more than just luck. At the same time, we know quite a bit about what’s “normal” for BABIPs. Mike Trout is a very fast runner and crushes the ball. His career BABIP is .339 and his highest one-season BABIP is .383 when he was 20 and ripped 49 bags. Seaver King’s BABIP this year is .385. There are good reasons to think King might be a high BABIP guy, but it’s going to come down.
For pitchers, the BABIP band is much narrower. Cade Cavalli’s BABIP is .361, and it’s rare for a pitcher to sustain a BABIP above .310 for any length of time unless that pitcher simply isn’t good enough for MLB. This is why FIP only considers walks, Ks, and homers: over a long-enough sample, pitcher BABIP tends to normalize between .280-.310, and ERAs can be very misleading because hits (and especially hits with men on base) can move the ERA needle significantly. Clayton Kershaw is famously a low-BABIP guy and his career mark is .271. Scherzer is .286. Strasburg is .293.
Great explanation. Gracias.