Tuesday’s News & Notes
| Team | Yesterday | Today | Pitching Probables |
| Rochester | OFF DAY | @ Buffalo, 6:05pm | Alvarez (0-2, 6.23) vs. Bash (2-0, 2.89) |
| Harrisburg | OFF DAY | vs. Erie, 6:30pm | Soroka (MLB Rehab) vs. Montalvo (0-0, 18.69) |
| Wilmington | OFF DAY | vs. Aberdeen, 6:35pm | Clemmey (0-2, 4.91) vs. Gibson (0-1, 7.71) |
| Frdericksburg | OFF DAY | vs. Charleston, 6:05pm | Da. Garcia (0-1, 6.75) vs. Kmatz (1-0, 1.00 |
Rochester Red Wings, 4-15, 10th place I.L. East, 10GB
With five losses last week, Rochester now leads the minor leagues with 15. This week, it’s seven against the Bisons, including a doubleheader tomorrow and matinees on Saturday and Sunday. Roster moves: RHP Andry Lara optioned from Washington.
Harrisburg Senators, 7-8, T4th place E.L. Southwest, 3GB
The Senators return home to host the SeaWolves after splitting six against the Fisher Cats last week. For those looking to play hooky, it’s a day game tomorrow (Wet Nose Wednesday).
Wilmington Blue Rocks, 3-12, 6th place Sally Lg. North, 8GB
The Blue Rocks are on a six-game losing streak as they return to the nation’s onshore tax haven. It’s six this week against the IronBirds with a matinee on Sunday.
Fredericksburg Nationals, 8-7, 3rd Place C.L. North, 5GB
Fredericksburg split its series against Fayetteville but dropped into third place. This week it’s the one and only regular-season series against the Charleston Riverdogs, including an 11am start tomorrow. Jorgelys Mota was named the Carolina League Player of the Week after going 8-for-22 (.364) during the games of April 15-20, including a HR, a triple, three doubles, four stolen bases, five walks, and six RBI.
Two mediocre teams and two terrible teams…. not great.
Something I noticed recently, but hadn’t picked up on before is that both Wilmington and Fredericksburg are quite considerably older than league average.
In Wilmington, they have the oldest bats in the league (22.9) compared to league average of 22.2, while also have, by a massive margin, the worst production (team OPS of .554, .091 worse than the next worst team and .137 points below average. Ugh… But it doesn’t end there. The pitchers are the 3rd oldest, and the third worst (by ERA). Again, not a good combination.
Similar story in Fredericksburg: the bats are by a considerable margin, the oldest in the league (21.8 vs 21.4 the next oldest, and 20.6 is league average). Fortunately, they’re only the 4th worst in the league (.639 OPS vs league average of .682). The arms are also extremely old: 23.1, almost a whole year older than the next oldest team, and over a year older than league average of 21.9. This extra seasoning is at least paying some dividends, as they’re almost exactly league average (4.42 ERA vs league average of 4.41).
What’s interesting is Harrisburg and Rochester buck this trend, and skew younger than average. The Sens bats don’t. They’re 24.5, 3rd oldest in the league, almost a year above average (23.7), while playing slightly below average (.650 OPS vs .677). However, the arms there are on the younger side 24.6 vs league average of 24.9, while performing almost exactly according to league average (4.03 team ERA vs 4.00 league ERA).
Rochester is where the gap is biggest. Red Wing bats are 25.9 (4th youngest in the IL), and well below league average of 26.6. Unfortunately, it hasn’t had positive effects. They’re 5th worst (.688 OPS vs league average of .733). However, the arms are remarkably young: 26.1, the youngest in the IL. Unfortunately, they’re by a huge margin the worst pitching staff in the IL. 6.41 team ERA (next worst has a 5.43 ERA), and league average ERA is some 2 full runs per game fewer (4.38).
Not much of a correlation between age and performance, as the Nats’ affiliates are generally quite poor according to most stats (or at best average), but it does look like the Red Wings’ relative inexperience is having some negative effects. Unfortunately, the reverse isn’t true in Fredericksburg or Wilmington.
Here is my note from yesterday on a concern you had that I was focusing on just one year – – this season, and on your Glasser and Chaparro comment: Will, I was not so much focused on this season as I was seeing a decent group of prospects who could contribute in the fairly near future – – two or three seasons down the road. I have patience, as long as the Nats seem to be on a decent road to success. I’m also concerned about outfielders. The Nats are not as loaded as they say they are. I have hope for Phillip Glasser too, but he seems to be groomed as a utility IF and OF. I would also like to see someone at the MLB level who has more versatility than Chaparro, even if he has a chance to hit better than Josh Bell.
The Nats are in the sixth year of their rebuild. In a rebuild, the minor league system should be pretty far along – – should be one of the best in baseball as a matter of fact. Instead, the Nats seem to be very average (at best). I know we fans are supposed to ignore overall results and just look at individual prospects. But we are thin there too. For example, although there are a lot of “names” of infielders we can all recite, only Brady seems to be a real possibility within the next few years of helping at the MLB level. The outfield is not nearly as stocked as the Nats say either. And the Nats do not seem to know how to draft well. What is going on here?
Soroka and Abrams will be making rehab starts in H’burg tonight.
You are correct. Senators sent out an email announcing it.
@EdDC: it doesn’t really matter, but it’s not six years of rebuild. It’s been five years and six months since the Nats won the WS. IMNSHO at the trade deadline it will be four years since the Nats rebuild started. They were in it to compete in 2020 and 2021, but after the warning light of 2020 Rizzo clearly built the 2021 roster with a Plan A (go for the playoffs – and the Nats were very much in contention until Schwarber got hurt) and a Plan B (blow it up and pivot to a rebuild; the roster had a LOT of pending free agents and most of them were moved at the deadline). When the Nats collapsed in July* it was time for Plan B.
*After June 30 the Nats were in 2nd place in the NL East and only 2.5 games out of first. They went 5-16 over the next three+ weeks and were suddenly in 4th place 9 games out.
Yep rebuild started with the Schwarber trade to the Red Sox (July 29, 2021); Brad Hand to the Blue Jays (July 29, 2021); Scherzer/Turner trade with Dodgers (July 30, 2021); Daniel Hudson to the Padres (July 30, 2021); Jan Gomes/Josh Harrison to the A’s (July 30, 2021); Jon Lester to the Cardinals (July 30, 2021).
While it seems like a lifetime ago, it was less than 4 years ago. FWIW, from that day, the players acquired on that day who are still on the Nats roster:
– Riley Adams
– Kiebert Ruiz
– Josiah Gray
– Mason Thompson
– Drew Millas
– Alex Clemmey (not on the MLB roster for now; Nats received Lane Thomas for Lester; Nats then traded Thomas for Clemmey)
– Jose Tena
I even go a step farther. Look at those trades in 2021. The only outgoing asset that wasn’t expiring was one year of Trea Turner, and the overwhelming majority of the value coming back was active major leaguers, not really prospects: Gray, Ruiz, Adams, Thompson and Thomas. The best actual prospects we got were Shuman and Millas.
I agree with John’s take that Rizzo had a plan A and a plan B in 2021, and I think in 2022 the balance of probabilities may have made a rebuild the new plan A, but the team was built to be able to remain on the outskirts of contention if Stras could get healthy and Corbin could get his ERA down to 4.50.
I date the rebuild to the Soto trade. That’s the first time the fans were being overtly told “things are going to get worse before they get better.”
The only thing I would add is that the 2019 team was very old. There was going to be teardown at some point no matter what. We can bitch all we want about Strasburg getting hurt, Corbin turning into a pumpkin, the Nats not getting the windfall for winning a WS – none of those things made the roster any younger, and we all know that even if there had been a WS windfall, the Lerners weren’t going plow that money into a top-tier free agent.
It’s seems almost quaint to think that at one point Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia were considered untouchable. But believe it or not, holding on to them was probably the right move because it’s hard to argue that either or both of them would have generated the same kind of return as the 2021 trades. Plus, let’s not forget that by 2021, the Nats minors were ranked DEAD LAST by BA and Keith Law.
Good to see yo yo Morales back in the harrisburg lineup. Hopefully, he’s over whatever was keeping him out.