The 2025 NationalsProspects.com Watchlist
It’s time to [HR]defecate or depart the commode[/HR] on this item, so let’s get going towards one of the last items of the offseason before we vainly hope for something to talk about that’s remotely minors-oriented.
Perhaps the thing that stands out the most about this year’s edition is how much larger the second row is than the first. Granted, that’s usually true since that’s where the pitchers go, but it’s hard not to notice there as many RHPs as Notable Arms.
Much of that, of course, is due to three factors:
- Guys who were hurt (no M*A*S*H)
- Draft picks who don’t pitch/play the same year they’re drafted
- The pandemic caveat
Rather than detail all the changes from when this first appeared, I’ll just say that I took the suggestions/corrections from the comments, added the Rule 5 picks, and made a couple of swaps.
For the newbies, which I vainly hope is due to my larger BlueSky following, here are the caveats:
• It’s not a depth chart – Players are listed primarily by the highest level they’ve played, minors or majors. I’ve resisted the urge to alphabetize by last name to hammer this point home.
• Most of these guys will not make it past High-A – This probably the hardest truth for people to accept. Just take a look at this post from 2021 and then think about how many of these guys are no longer playing professionally.
• It’s not a prediction of usage – Almost every position player makes a change from when he was drafted to when he makes it to The Show. Smart orgs use pitchers in multiple ways before settling because it’s easier to convert a starter to a reliever than vice-versa. Never mind that the rules and the game is making the fireman (the guy who comes in to put out the fire when the fire is burning instead of waiting for the 9th) a thing again.
| C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF |
| Lomavita | Morales | Glasser | Made | House | Crews |
| Rombach | Quintana | V. Peña | King | Wallace | Hassell |
| Bazzell | Tavares | Dugas | Dickerson | Mota | Pinckney |
| Lile | |||||
| Cox | |||||
| Green | |||||
| E. Ramirez | |||||
| Hurtado | |||||
| RHP | LHP | ’24 Picks | DSL Guys | Notable Arms | Notable Bats |
| Lord | Alvarez | R. Diaz | A. Feliz | Cavalli | Baker |
| Stuart | Saenz | Kent | J. Feliz | Brzykcy | M. Romero |
| Sinclair | Clemmey | Petersen | Cabrera | Reifert | De La Rosa |
| Lara | Bloebaum | Cranz | Lunar | Choi | Pimentel |
| Grissom | Roman | Jamison | Liriano | Bennett | White |
| M. Gomez | Requena | L. Young | Cruz | ||
| Mo. Diaz | Robles | Bollenbacher | Vaquero | ||
| Atencio | J. Sanchez | Hall | Cooper | ||
| Susana | Tejeda | Beeker | |||
| Arias | D. Perez | ||||
| Sykora | R. Ramirez | ||||
| B. Romero | C. Sanchez |
As time allows, this will be posted to the tab above and in the sidebar. Over the course of January and into February, I’ll build out the pages while I wait for the prospect books to arrive (or be released).
From time to time, I’ll let you know when I’ve finished a category or two, but you can also check to see when a category has been hyperlinked. That means I’ve finished it.
In the meantime, feel free to discuss in the comments…
Part of me says it’s a good list, part says that you’re going to spend a hell of a lot of time trying to dig up info on a fairly large bunch of guys with very little chance.
A few random takes:
— It doesn’t really look like a lot of guys listed C through 3B, and yet I wouldn’t give you a nickel for the MLB chances of half of them. Whatever field positional depth there is resides in the OF.
— One has to wonder increasingly what the complex league still exists for. Yet at the same time, so many guys who are trying to start at full-season A are struggling.
— Did I mention a fairly large bunch of guys with very little chance? Why so bullish on DSL kids who don’t shave yet? Maybe just two or three bonus babies? (And Hurtado certainly didn’t do anything to warrant “promotion” out of the general DSL rankings.)
— In general, beyond just a small handful of guys, the Latin pipeline doesn’t look healthy at all right now.
— Of the draft picks beyond the top four, the one who intrigues me most is Randal Diaz, a middle infielder from a mid-major NCAA tourney squad with power plus contact. There doesn’t seem to be any magic formula for determining which college kids will actually hit in the pros, though.
I think it’s a good list.
I agree with KW that there seem to be a lot of fringy DSL and CPX guys. These players have league average production, small bonuses and no public scouting. If I were making the list, I’d leave them off. But there’s nothing wrong with a “watchlist” including a bunch of those guys for us all to keep an eye on. One or two may have some success this season and remain on the list; the rest will fall off and be replaced with this year’s crop. That’s fine with me and seems entirely in keeping with the spirit of the exercise.
Another similar thing that I think I’d be a bit tighter on is good, but not great, production from old-ish guys in A-ball. Guys like Dugas and Rombach. Dugas crushed low-A, but couldn’t crack league average as a 24 year old in Wilmington. Rombach had a league average line as a 23 year old in Fredericksburg. If we’re going to generally have an age cutoff at 26, I’d want a specific reason to believe someone will be a fast riser or a legit prospect to include them if one promotion per season isn’t enough for them to graduate before they age off.
As far as the thin list of non-OF bats, I certainly agree. But I think it’s at least a little helpful that we actually have decent bench player quality backups in Nunez, Baker and Millas. I get that they are no longer prospects because of service time rules, but they still are actually in the system and provide a substantially higher floor than would appear from the list itself.
Frankly, I sure hope they sign INF reserves better than Baker and Nunez and leave them as the double-play combo at Rochester, stealing a total of 100 bases between them. Nunez’s lack of a stick and Baker’s lack of positional flexibility and any power make it a long shot that either has a long ride in the majors. If you could put them in a mixer and add Nunez’s SS skills to Baker’s ability to get on base, you might have something.
Dugas was yet another above-average college hitter for whom I had some hopes. Keep drafting them. All you need is one or two to click. Max Muncy was a collegiate hitter who never had more than nine homers at Baylor. Chris Taylor showed little power at UVA but got on base. Both were fifth-round picks.