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Offseason Update: Nov. 20, 2023

This is the first of what I fear/suspect will be many posts this offseason to indicate that things have slowed down but not stopped (except maybe for the GM Meetings, but that’s another story).

There’s still two weeks until the Winter Meetings, which won’t quite have the same anticipation as a year ago since the Nats are ineligible for the lottery and cannot pick higher than 10th. Them’s the rules, which are tacitly saying “You have the money to spend money on free agents.”

That, of course, is a discussion for the sites covering the big clubs. I’m starting to put together the preliminary 2024 Watchlist and it’s pretty sparse aside from OFs and RHPs. My threat to automatically exclude guys over a certain age might make some categories a list of one or two while looking as empty as it ever was.

The upshot? The Nats will have to sign some FAs to plug some holes (1B, 3B, LF) and none of those FAs will be blocking anybody in the minors. First base is thinner than a supermodel on a hunger strike, and has been for nearly a decade. You can safely make a Duke Bros. bet that T.J. White will not be the last OF to convert to the position in the next 2-3 years.

2023 Rochester Red Wings

Somehow this got lost in the shuffle of the deadline for the Rule 5 deadline being moved up a week. That nobody noticed or said anything is also indicative of what AAA has become: a glorified taxi squad, especially for last-place teams like Washington.

Unlike last year, the Red Wings started cold and stayed cold. They briefly flirted with .500 and 5th place in June before settling down and into 8th place by July, where they finished in the second half and overall.

You will not be shocked to learn the Red Wings were the worst of both worlds – 19th on offense at 4.88 R/G (5.50 Lg. Avg.), 17th in pitching (5.97 R/G), and 13th in defense (.979 FA) with the most stolen bases allowed. And this was with a team that had plenty of “experience” – 27.1 vs. 26.3 for the flailers, 27.9 vs. 26.9 for the throwers.

The exploits of the two Jakes – Alu and Irvin – aside, both of whom graduated from prospect status by virtue of exceeding threshholds (if not age), there were actually three watchlisters who will probably maintain that status for 2024:

  • Darren Baker, 2B/LF – .273/.338/.340, 19SB in 99G
  • Drew Millas, C – .270/.362/.403, .993 FA, 27% CS
  • Amos Willingham, RHRP – 3-1, 2.88/3.89/1.40

This is the first time there’s been a list at the AAA level that’s more than one or none for Washington since 2015. Folks interested in seeing the full team statistics can find them here. Pitching data can be found here

18 Commments

  1. I would argue that we’re deeper at 3B and LF than we are at 2B and SS (and pitcher, but that’s another story…). With House and Morales both in AA, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one or both of them in the big league picture in the latter half of 2024. It will be interesting to see how the Nats handle both of their playing time. They were extremely cautious with House, resting him at least two days every week. That opens playing time at 3B for Morales, but more likely, they have them start the season at different levels. If they’re feeling cautious, House starts at AA and Morales in A+, with a start to the 3B carousel if both hit well. If they’re more aggressive, then have House start in AAA and Morales in AA. And that’s not even getting to the utility prospect in Trey Lipscomb. We then have Alu, Kieboom’s last chance and Vargas at the MLB level, which is fine depth for a team not intending to compete in 2024.

    At LF, we are indeed thin at the major league level. With Thomas at RF, Robles at CF, hopefully Garrett is ready to return to LF, with Young and Call as cross-OF depth. It’s a bad outfield, but it’s something. But like at 3B, there’s a bunch of good options a level or two down. Wood could start ’24 in AAA. Hassell will likely repeat at AA, along with Crews (unless, like above, they’re being extra cautious and start him at A+). Andrew Pinckney also finished the season in AA, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start at A+, but that could be complicated by the presence of Daylen Lile, Jeremy de la Rosa, Elijah Nunez and Jared McKenzie. But basically, you have Wood, Hassell and Crews (and Pinckney as a long shot) as potential contributors to the Nats in the second half of 2024. Unless the Nats deal Thomas and Robles and/or Garrett (which isn’t a bad idea), a free agent LF wouldn’t have a particularly clear path to playing time, and would likely only block Wood later on.

    2B and SS, on the other hand, are completely destitute of prospects in the pipeline. Abrams is the incumbent at SS, but we’re just an injury away from Jeter Downs’ consistently sub-Mendoza batting average. Luis Garcia has been a mess, and only has a job because there’s absolutely no one else around. Technically, Jake Alu and Trey Lipscomb can play 2B, but neither have been particularly convincing themselves. Darren Baker still exists, but took steps backward in ’23.

    If I’m the Nats, I’d try to sign a 2B and a 1B/DH on one or two year deals with a view to trading them at the deadline.

    1B options: Rhys Hoskins, Joey Gallo, Rowdy Tellez, Giovanny Urshela
    2B options: Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Adam Frazier, Tony Kemp, Kolten Wong

    1. I am going to put my finger on Gallo bc he can muster up ok at 3 b on a few moments
      I’m only human as I get ready to verify that I’m not a bot trolling this site lol snarkle snarkle
      Senzel comes off a career spell with that asterisk next to him : home park waa match box GAB Cincy .
      JDL can relax play his game and not try and live up to being a 40 man roster guy .
      Nats truly are the most interesting retool in MLB this off season as they might be a year or two removed from adding the sage vet pieces to make a push at division title and beyond
      Fred MD agree on Marcus Brown

  2. Wherever I mention drafting for need, people scream back “best player available.” So why can’t that best player ever be a middle infielder? OK, so they technically drafted House as a SS, but no one really believed that man-child would stay at that position.

    The Nats have NOTHING in reserve if Abrams and Garcia don’t pan out (and they’ve already indicated frustration with Garcia). Luke highlighted Darren Baker, who was a good story for a couple of years. But no one thinks of him as a possibility to be an MLB regular, and he’s very position-limited.

    Lipscomb is the antithesis of position-limited, but we found out in AZ that his bat still has a ways to go to get to MLB level. But he’s really the only middle infielder (who really isn’t one by trade) anywhere close to being on the horizon. The big investment in Infante isn’t looking good so far.

    If they get desperate, Jacob Young played 2B his first year in college. Our guy Jake Alu got a pretty decent look (175 PAs) and really didn’t produce much. And the less we keep hoping on Carter Kieboom the better.

    1. I wouldn’t sleep on Marcus Brown, he was labeled a glove first prospect but actually hit well in his 19-20 yr old seasons as a Cowboy

      1. Draftees Brown and Phillip Glasser have an open avenue to move up quickly if they hit. Brown is said to be an elite defender. Of course so is Armando Cruz, who still hits with a wet noodle.

    2. Good post! Unless they get middle infielder help in a trade, their best prospect is soon to be 19 year old (early 2024) Jorgelys Mota. He is still far off. Marcus Brown is 22 and only played A ball last year. Downs, Cluff, Made, Barley and Cruz (still hope) have not progreesed.

  3. I tend to agree that FA that the Nats sign for the corners will not block any prospects, but I come at it from a different angle: that none of the FA that they could sign are good enough not to be moved if/when someone from the minors is ready.* Even if they get Jeimer Candelario for 3/$36M (a deal that I think the Nats should sign if they can get it, but not go much more than that) Candelario could be moved from 3b to 1b if pushed off by House. If at some point later Morales starts hitting for power there’s the option of rotating the three of them at the corners and DH (they’ve been going slow with House’s playing time). Bottom line, talent backlogs are a good problem to have, and such issues tend to work themselves out naturally.

    *Yes, I’m assuming that they don’t sign Cody Bellinger. And I’m fine with that.

    1. Agree that none of the FAs available are “good enough” to block House or Morales if they live up to advertising. By and large it’s a weak FA class. (Bellinger has been SO up and down that he would be an extreme risk for anyone.)

      And while I’m really high on House in the long term, it’s still quite concerning that he basically missed what amounted to a third of the season with no real explanation.

      Since Rizzo loves guys who were high picks/one-time prospects, the Reds have non-tendered Nick Senzel. He wouldn’t be high on my list, but he does have some 2B/3B versatility.

  4. This next June with a pick in probably draft musical chairs numbered 11-17
    Could possibly see the revamped scouting staff come upon a fast rising collegiate infielder to fit the needs of post Luis Garcia

  6. The Nats made a big deal of him winning it, good for him! Thanks for the link.

    The Nats have 3 big time prospects at 3rd base, despite his size Yoyo Morales plays a very good 3rd. Since the system has so little st 1st it’s logical that somebody will move there eventually.

    1. all assumptions are House at third and Morales at first, I’m not sure the reverse wouldn’t be better

      1. I saw Morales multiple times this year and he was terrific at the hot corner. I think he’s the same size as Cal Ripken.

        All 3 third base prospects are terrific stories.

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