Baseball America Ranks the Top 10 Nats Prospects
The Boys in Durham reverted to the mean… hard as they released the first (of several, no doubt) Top 10 list for 2024. Just two of last year’s Top 10 dropped out, replaced by two draft picks:
- Dylan Crews, OF (’23 Draft pick)
- James Wood, OF (1)
- Brady House, 3B (5)
- Cade Cavalli, RHP (4)
- Yohandy Morales, 3B (’23 Draft pick)
- Jackson Rutledge, RHP(9)
- Robert Hassell, OF (2)
- Chrithian Vaquero, SS (6)
- Elijah Green, OF (3)
- Jarlin Susana, RHP (7)
As usual, incumbency (rather than performance or development) ruled the day. Cade Cavalli, who threw as many pitches as you did this past summer, somehow did not drop down or out. That’s not saying he shouldn’t be ranked. But this ain’t football we do this shit every day: You should lose your spot if you get injured.
It is good, though, to see Brady House get some recognition after quietly having the best season in the Washington minors last summer. That’s not a dis against James Wood; in fact, you can make the argument that he’s the true #1 given he’s both younger and more experienced than Crews.
Likewise, Jackson Rutledge’s long-delayed ascension to The Show might’ve been better rewarded. But I can understand not getting too excited, given that he might not have gotten the callup were it not for Washington’s nothing-to-lose position and the need to rest its young starters.
I have no explanation for Elijah Green’s inclusion aside from incumbency. Yes, he has tremendous upside and the DOB is in his favor, but sorry BA, you can ignore those two things in favor of a K rate that looks like Randy Johnson in reverse.
Unfortunately, the MASN Commenters dominated the chat, with far too many of the questions focused on the big club and former prospects. As you might imagine, BA was loathe to criticize the new PD staff. About the only tidbit was that Andrew Alvarez and Kyle Lyckham are two names to watch for next year, which I supposed is useful if you’ve never been anywhere else to look for news about prospects 😉
Sorry guys, I’m at time… Feel free to discuss in the comments.
Totally agree with Luke on Cavalli and Green. Including Green means they didn’t pay any attention to his performance in 2023.
Yoyo with a well deserved #5 after a stunning showing after the draft.
Oh wow, I guess it’s time to start thinking about the only truly informed rankings of the Nats’ system: our Bats and Arms crowd-sourcing. Honestly, the Arms list is going to be really hard, between injuries, under-performance, and low ceilings of several of the guys who have done well. (Rutledge’s ceiling also seems much lower than once thought, but that’s another discussion for another day.)
On the flip side, there are lots of bats to rank. And it will be a fun discussion at the top among Wood, Crews, and House. I agree with Luke about House’s strong season overall, despite the “load management.” On down the list, ranking Green over Pinckney is malpractice, at least at this stage of where they are in their professional development.
why are hassell and wood both showing a (2) after their name? It’s Cristhian as well. 🙂
I think people are too down on Green. (I mean the commentary, not the BR ranking, which is fine I think. I don’t think there’s that much difference between 7th and 15th in this system, and any order you want is fine with me.)
I agree Green’s k rate is astronomical and there’s a sizable chance that he’s a bust. But he had swing-and-miss issues in high school – which basically no prospect ever does.
My point is that we didn’t learn very much about Green this year. His projection is barely worse than it was at the start of the year, because only a very small portion of his paths to eventual success involved him making huge strides in his first full season.
If you want to make the case that the bust risk made him a bad pick at #5, or that his expected timing was a bad fit for a team trying to get back to contention in a hurry, or that he’s a bad pick for an org that isn’t above average at fixing swings, fine. Those are all perfectly reasonable objections and some folks did make those points ahead of and immediately after the draft.
But his upside and other tools had him as a top 10 draft prospect on almost all the mocks. And his paths to success were always likely to go through a node like this, so it’s a bit silly for everyone to overreact to the fact that there wasn’t given a miracle cure for his swing issues on draft day.
I certainly hope Green makes it, but I was astounded by his level of struggle this season. I was one who wasn’t a fan of the pick, but I was expecting him to K maybe 25-30% in A ball while still hitting for a good bit of power. Neither happened. This is a major offseason for him to put in the work and improve. It’s not really something that the “organization” can fix. I do think h will be helped by the focus being heavily on Crews and Wood, so there should be less pressure on Green to succeed immediately.
ISO under reps his power because he strikes out so much. If you look at his SLG/AVG, it’s actually fine. Not great (which makes sense, bc if his bat control is so poor, of course he’d have trouble turning his raw power into game power), but fine.
Still, I agree with this being a big offseason for him. A year from now, if he’s another year older, with another year of pro coaching and full time work under his belt, and he’s still striking out around 40% of the time in the low minors., well, that starts to preclude some of his paths to eventual success.
My only point was that Green’s struggles were expected and shouldn’t meaningfully change how we think of him. Not that he’s a surefire star or even that his median projection is a ML starter. I honestly didn’t love the pick either. I just like it basically just as much as I did a year and change ago.
I’d challenge you to find one (or more!) prospects who struck out more than 40% across a full season in the minors, and still managed to make it to the majors.
What Green did this season wasn’t just bad. It was unprecedented. You always get a bunch of guys who show up to the DSL who are super raw and can’t hit a baseball. We saw half a dozen of them just on the DSL Nats this season. What you don’t see is elite prospects (or even much of anyone in full season baseball) who can’t hit a baseball. Green was one of 16 players out of 1600+ in A ball or above who struck out >40%. The others are a list of nonprospects, who just fill up roster spots.
But the worst part is, he didn’t show any progress at all this season. After his time out, he came back to Fburg, and struck out 33 times in his final 84 plate appearances. Whatever he was working on in Florida didn’t amount to anything. At least with enigmatic players like TJ White, there’s glimpses of his potential mixed in with nightmarish slumps. Green’s 2023 was all nightmare.
Can he turn it around? Possibly. I hope so! But the amount of work he needs to do to his swing is massive. Until he can demonstrate some progress there, I don’t think he’s worthy of top prospect status. One to watch, sure. But not one deserving of top prospect designation.
Agree with this!
Cavalli’s holding position isn’t quite exactly a holding position, but more of the product of several players tumbling mightily down the board (Green and Hassell). I would agree that Cavalli’s prospect status has dropped off quite a bit, but I’d be hard pressed to place him below Morales or any of the other names on this list.
I’d also lean toward putting Wood ahead of Crews at this point. Overlooked by many is that Wood is half a year younger than Crews, while out hitting him (mightily) in Harrisburg. Crews’ stint in AA has caused me to question just how polished his bat is, particularly after being burned by other prospect watchers claiming Hassell had one of the most polished bats in the minors not so long ago.
Yes , Luke , Luckham was the best arm story in 23 to rise out of the lower level in ascension .