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AFL/Offseason Update: Oct. 17, 2023

Robert Hassell and Israel Pineda both went deep to help build a 6-4 lead for the Scorpions after seven. Alas, the two-run lead was too small for Holden Powell to hold as the Rafters paddled him for three runs in the 9th and a 7-6 win.

Hassell, who also walked, doubled, scored two, and drove in two, started in right field and batted ninth. He had two putouts on defense

Pineda matched Hassell’s 2-for-3 with two RBIs but scored only once. Pineda hit a sacrifice fly while batting third and caught the game. Salt River tried to steal on him three times and failed thrice.

Trey Lipscomb made another appearance at first base and was the “3” on seven groundouts. At the plate, he went 1-for-4 but remains on the interstate at .182 (6-for-33).

Orland Ribalta made his fourth appearance and stranded two runners in the 6th when Pineda threw out Caleb Roberts to end the inninge. The 25-y.o. then cordero’d around a walk and a single with one out to escape the jam.

Powell struck out the first and last batter of the 9th. In between, Salt River drew a walk, hit a single, then, after a two-out popout, took the Nats’ 2020 3rd Rd. pick deep for a three-run blast that would earn him the blown-save-loss.

Scottsdale (7-5-1) hosts Mesa (4-9) tonight. Assuming he’s not hurt (pause for laughter), DJ Herz would seem likely to make his third start.



2023 FCL Nationals

Three years in to “The New World Order” and it looks like we’re approaching what may be the new normal. In 2021, Draft Picks were in witness protection until late August. In 2022, it was the second week of August. Last summer, it was the last week of July. Given that the signing deadline was July 25, it’s probably safe to presume it won’t be any earlier.

As semi-predicted, the new normal now seems to be using the FCL in the early going to evaluate the kids from the D.R. and the youngest draft picks from the previous season. Almost everyone older than 22 who played was doing so as a rehab, not repeating the level.

Unlike 2022 though, the 2023 edition was never in contention, hovering just below .500 which is where they finished (24-25) despite having the second-oldest batters (20.2 vs. 19.4) and slightly older-than-average pitchers (21.0 vs. 20.8), though the latter is almost always true given Washington’s inability to keep its pitchers healthy.

Offensively, the team was as you’d expect for its age: above average (6.02 vs. 5.64) but the pitching was not (6.39, third-worst in the league). Defensively, it was slightly below average (.956FA vs. .960) and curiously the F-Nats allowed the fewest stolen bases despite more opportunities to steal.

And as we always do, we close out the review with the obligatory Top 5’s:

TOP 5 BATS TOP 5 ARMS
1. Cristhian Vaquero, CF
.283 GPA, .410 OBP, 15SB in 42G		 1. Jefrem Leon, RHSP
5.58/4.44/1.50, 10.27 K/9IP in 30⅔ IP
2. Jorgelys Mota, 3B
.294 GPA, .459 SLG% in 98PA		 2. Gabriel Agostini, LHSP
4.53/5.12/1.26, 7.83 K/9IP in 43⅔ IP
3. Everett Cooper, 2B
.307 GPA, 2XBH in 28G		 3. Cristian Jimenez, RHRP
5.12/5.14/1.34, 9.3 K/9IP, 2.8 BB/9IP in 19⅓ IP
4. Nathan Ochoa Leyva, 1B
.258 GPA, .371 OBP in 107PA		 4. Moises Diaz, RHRP
2.89/3.95/1.12, 1.9 BB/9IP in 18⅔ IP
5. Juan Garcia, 3B
.278 GPA, .412 OBP in 15G		 5. Josue Carmona, LHRP
5.73/4.41/2.36, 11.45 K/9IP, 8.2 BB/9IP in 11IP

Just like a year ago, the sample sizes here are very small. Just 10 batters appeared in more than 20 games; only four had more than a 100PA. Likewise, only six pitchers had more than 20IP (and five of those were starters) and thirteen had more than 10IP.

So no, there are no honorable mentions Forrest Gump pause again. Folks interested in seeing the full team stats can find them here. FIP data can be found here.

12 Commments

    2. Speaking of paddling , Luke , I wonder I’d anyone here has been to the hamburger place in Vegas where the waitresses dress up in
      White Red Cross nurse outfits and paddle you in fun if you don’t finish your monster burger ??
      Lol

  2. Has Hassell finally recovered fully from that hamate injury? He’s showing more offense in the AFL than he did in AA. He’s been the forgotten man compared to Wood and Crews, but a good showing in AFL and again in ST could put him back in the conversation.

    1. Nice share. Hassell (like a multitude of prospects before him) may never live up to expectations, but hopefully, he only “needs a fresh adjustment to get back on track.”

  4. the few times I’ve seen Vaquero he has had more than few swings that look awkward. that and he’s still very slight of build. I look forward to watching him more in 24

    Mota could be the real deal, another must see prospect along with Ochoa Leyva.

    Cooper’s success eases the sting of Cox’s struggles.

    exciting season ahead for the FNats!

    1. FredMD maybe Cox needs a different perspective with the right hitting guru
      Much like Randy Johnson benefited from meeting Nolan Ryan

  5. For those with an Athletic subscription, here’s Keith Law’s take from Arizona:

    https://theathletic.com/4967319/2023/10/16/arizona-fall-league-scouting-reports-ricky-tiedemann/

    No mention of any of the Nats, but some interesting general observations for those of us who follow news from the league:

    Pitching, or lack thereof, is the real story of the AFL this year, though. Even with the changes to reduce some of the wear and tear on players, like those later start times for afternoon games that reduce the league’s value to scouts, clubs just aren’t sending enough pitching. The talent in Arizona was probably the weakest I’ve ever seen, but that’s not entirely a surprise given how many prospects debuted in the majors this year or played deep into September as their parent clubs bumped them up to Double A and even Triple A to gain an extra week or two of playing time.

    The lack of pitching is a chronic issue, though, and this year it is incredibly thin. In past years, you could generally expect to see a lot of relievers who throw hard and don’t know where it’s going, and some relievers with barely average fastballs but good command or at least control. This year, I saw a lot of guys with barely average fastballs who didn’t know where it was going, and let me tell you, I don’t think those guys are going to make my top 100 this winter. It is tougher to evaluate players when the level of competition is weaker.

    There’s no easy solution here; I would love to see MLB penalize teams that send pitchers who have no business being here — if you send a pitcher who walks a man an inning in the AFL, you should lose a draft pick! — but that’s not going to happen. What I would love to see, and have suggested before (as have others), is for teams to use the AFL as a rehab spot for big-league pitchers who need more innings after the regular season has ended. Cleveland got Triston McKenzie back on the mound for two outings in September, one where he walked six guys and then a better one where he went 4 1/3 innings and walked three, but then the season was over. Wouldn’t he benefit from a few outings in Arizona to build up his innings total and maybe continue to work on regaining his command? Given the sheer number of pitchers we have recovering from Tommy John surgery at any given time, the AFL’s spot in the calendar could allow some of those guys to pitch in games when the alternative is waiting until March. It would help the league, and help the pitchers and their teams as well.

    1. The Nats are chronically guilty of sending pitchers who don’t belong there. Also, considering this general indictment of pitching, we probably shouldn’t get too excited about guys who are hitting well there. That said, the confidence that Millas gained hitting there last fall certainly carried over for him in 2023.

    2. given MLB’s decreasing interest in the minor league system as anything more than a cash drain it’s hard to imagine them even giving this a moments thought

    3. In past years there were predominantly Triple A players so the talent was further along than the lower level ones there are now.

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