Catching Up on Transactions

23 Commments

1. I always enjoyed watching Carson Teel pitch, good mound presence and command. good luck young man!

   1. Career numbers of two (maybe) 6-foot lefties:

      A: 3.95 ERA / 1.28 WHIP / 8.0 K9 / 2.6 BB9
      B: 4.28 ERA / 1.32 WHIP / 8.2 K9 / 2.7 BB9

      Most regular readers can guess where I’m going with this. A is 16th-round pick Carson Teel; B is 2d-round pick Tim Cate, who is still showing up on some prospect lists.

      1. Ha, great comparison. For better or worse, draft pick round matters a lot more than performance sometimes.

   2. Bummer whenever a L/ R outfielder or infielder ceilings out to low
      Good luck Teel Reel
      Maybe a mentor in a youth baseball program somewhere , Carson
      Rutherford should rake some at ROCH or the opposite
      Time will tell

2. Carson Teel was a 16th round pick in 2018 who signed for $125,000. He slowly worked his way up the system but stalled at AA. His two forays to AAA in 2021 and 2022 did not go well, last year in Rochester hs ERA was 6.70.

   At least he can regale his grandchildren on his 4 years as a pro ballplayer.

   Kevin Strohschein was a 21st round pick in 2019. He spent last year in Wilmington with an OPS of .586.

   1. Tell got paid well for a 16th round pick.

      1. Far better than Jake Alu, who got $10,000.

3. Blake Rutherford was the #18 overall pick in 2016, 10 picks ahead of Carter Kieboom, both taken as high schoolers. (Yes, most of the excitement in the system right now is over young high school picks. Caveat emptor.) Rutherford was once as high as #37 overall on MLB.com prospect list and also ranked in the top 50 by BA and BP.

   1. Rutherford cut his K% at AAA from 25.0 in 2021 to 19.5 in 2022, but he still can’t take a walk (4.5%). He’s consistently shown good doubles numbers but not a lot of HR power, just 13 in 119 games last season. Respectable .272 career minor-league average, including .271 at AAA in 2022.

      There’s more contact with Rutherford than there is with some of the other floundering prospects who they’ve brought in, which might give him more of a chance. He’ll turn 26 in May and has an option left.

      1. Longenhagen take on Rutherford in December 2020: “The White Sox limit who from their org is allowed to speak with the media about prospects, so you’ve likely read this elsewhere since it’s the company line: Chicago is trying to get Rutherford to pull the ball more. Because he was only at the alt site all year, there’s really no way of knowing how this has gone. I’ve been watching Rutherford since his junior year of high school and he has always had a gorgeous low-ball swing that at times is suited for him slicing pitches away from him to the opposite field. I was as enamored with Rutherford’s swing and big frame during his prep days as anyone, but my thinking around swings like this has changed, even if Rutherford’s report hasn’t. I’ve never seen him really impact a ball that he hasn’t gotten fully extended on, and I don’t see a way of getting him to pull more without losing that that extension. Anecdotally, longer-swinged hitters seem to be better at hitting breaking balls and offspeed stuff than fastballs, and perhaps as baseball shifts toward a pitching approach that throws more breaking balls, hitters like Rutherford will actually be in a metagame position to succeed, but I’m skeptical. I still think the hopeful outcome here is for a lefty platoon bat.”

   2. I would love for someone to put together a list of former first round/top 100 prospects in this org right now. It seems to sometimes be the only qualification needed to get signed by the Nats (looking at you, Lucius Fox and Jeter Downs).

      1. Don’t forget Franklin Barreto, once #23 overall for MLB.com and a key piece in the Josh Donaldson trade.

4. not that I’m arguing that Teel was a top prospect but his AAA ERA was inflated by over two runs based on two consecutive outings in July, one a spot start after a call-up. he knew how to pitch but I guess his stuff only took him so far.

   1. Teel did better with the step up to AA in 2021 than Cate did, but neither did great. Both also lost a crucial year age/development-wise to COVID. Maybe they just hit their level, but maybe that lost year hurt too. We’ll never completely know, with them and with several others.

5. It looks like Juan Hillman was a respectable if unspectacular AA starter for the Guardians last year, likely signed as more of a bridge to the younger pitching in the organization. He put his team in a position to win (10-4 record, 3.71 ERA), but a 5.10 FIP and 9.2 hits per 9 don’t argue well for much higher success.

6. Those DSL dreams can end abruptly.

   1. Miguel Fernandez jumps out to me. His 2022 in the DSL wasn’t at all impressive (though, honestly, whose was?), but most of the other DSL releases were in their 2nd seasons and/or were old for the level. Fernandez was 17 and signed out of Cuba. He didn’t seem to get a bonus, but given the lack of quality and depth in the DSL Nats, I don’t see the harm in keeping him around another year.

7. Nats have 5 players in FanGraphs’ top 112: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

   3(!!) – Wood
   63 – Cavalli
   92 – Green
   96 – House
   112 – Hassell

   It’s certainly a unique take, compared to other lists. But FG is consistently better and more thorough than other prospect lists out there. The reports on all 5 are a good (and free!) read.

   1. I’ve said this before: I sure hope all of these gurus are right about Wood being a transcendent player. But it’s curious about his rapid rise in the prospect-o-sphere after the season. At the time of the trade, every evaluation had Hassell ranked ahead of Wood.

      The cautionary things with Wood are that he still strikes out a lot, and that despite his size, he’s yet to start putting a lot of balls over the fence. Adam Dunn was fun to watch, but he was too inconsistent a player to be a key piece for a contender.

   2. It’s also interesting to see that they have Brooks Lee, who the Nats passed on drafting, at #19, with Green all the way down at #92, presumably because of the risk associated with his contact issues. I hope the Nats turn out to be right about Green, but I anticipate some bumps in the road in his rise unless his contact improves significantly.

      1. Longenhagen was maybe the most bearish prospector out there on Green before the draft, so this isn’t unexpected. However, what is unexpected is Wood being placed at #3 overall. I don’t really understand how you can be so bullish on Wood and bearish on Green. Both have huge question marks regarding their contact. Green’s 40% K% was comical, but Wood’s K% in his first season was 32%. Also Green has more upside defensively and speed-wise, with similar power and bat projections (granted with Wood having one more season to prove himself), so I don’t understand the huge gulf between the two players. If Green’s plate approach concerns you, I’d think Wood’s would as well. Or if you drool over the upside, I’d expect you to love both of them, like Keith Law.

         But what’s most surprising is Hassell and Cavalli’s falls. In the 2022 midseason rankings, Cavalli was 26 and Hassell 65. Despite one bad MLB start and subsequent injury, Cavalli had an excellent 2nd half of 2022. I don’t totally understand the drop off. Also, I’m still baffled by Hassell’s meltdown. Someone mentioned that he said he was toying with his swing, which as I commented on at the time made no sense. Why mess with your swing when you’re hitting .299? It clearly didn’t work and he hit under .220 with the Nats and then broke his hand… so his drop makes some sense. Still, a drop of 50 spots is pretty crazy.

         1. People forget the human dimension with Hassell as well. At age 20, he was told that he was leaving his friends and (successful) coaches in one organization and moving across the country. The Nats sent him to Wilmington, but only for 10 games, barely enough time to start learning everyone’s name. Even though he was struggling, they kicked him on up to AA, where he was the youngest player on the team, and one of the youngest at that level across MiLB. Once again, he didn’t know teammates or coaches. And everyone is looking at him like he had better be good since he was traded for Soto.

            In looking at the stats, one has to wonder whether he had some other underlying injury that wasn’t reported. He had stolen 20 bases at Peoria before the trade (and 34 in 2021), yet they only let him run ONCE in 27 games at Harrisburg. What’s up with that? (He had three SBs in only 10 games at Wilmington.)

            Anyway, I think Hassell will be fine and will be in the majors by next season, maybe even by late this summer, although there’s no rush.

8. Gilbert Lara just signed with Baltimore. Milwaukee gave him $4 million and he has never hit at any level. I always thought the reason that the Brewers traded him to Washington was because they didn’t want to be reminded.

Comments are closed.