Five Nats Make Keith Law’s Top 100 Prospects List
The accolades keep coming for the Nats system as The Athletic’s Keith Law included five Washington prospects in his Top 100 MLB prospects 2023 List ($).
James Wood – 16
Since we’ve already covered this twice, let’s skip to Law’s assessment:
[H]e’s going to struggle more with contact as he moves up the ladder, but he has the power, speed, and defense to succeed even with a strikeout rate over 25 percent, and with the patience he’s already shown he may find a way to keep his contact rate up and become a 30/30 guy with a .350 OBP.
As previously noted, look for Woods to start 2023 in Wilmington.
Elijah Green – 35
Like Wood, Green is a product of the IMG academy in Florida and the loins of former NFL tight end Eric Green, thus proving the Nats’ fetish for legacies is not limited to baseball. Unlike most legacies (*cough* Mariano Rivera III *cough*), Green has more than just his last name going for him:
He’s a 70 runner and plus defender in center with a very strong arm, and might have gotten more attention for his range and reads if he hadn’t had the misfortune to be in the same draft class as the son of Andruw Jones. There’s risk here in the bat, but it’s an unusual power/speed combo in a center fielder
Low-A would seem to be where the 19-y.o. begins his 2023.
Robert Hassell – 43
Hassell dropped nearly 20 spots on Law’s list from 2022, but he’s still Top 50, unlike BA (#57), but ranked lower than MLB Pipeline (#35). Law categorizes him as a “high-floor, lower-ceiling guy,” which sounds like faint praise, but given the number of high-ceiling guys that flame out, that’s not bad.
He lets the ball travel on him so he has more time to recognize pitches, and if he gains some strength he could be a 30-doubles, 15-homers guy, although contact and getting on base will always be his predominant skills as a hitter. He’s an above-average runner who’s been a high-percentage base stealer in his two years in the minors (87 percent) and plays 55 defense in center.
Much will depend on how Hassell’s wrist is feeling, but AA is probably a safe bet given that he hadn’t mastered the level yet.
Cade Cavalli – 71
Law remains down on Cavalli’s command, control, and pitch sequencing but concedes that he has the easy velocity and complement of pitches that make for “The Great Arm.” He nevertheless praises the Nats for not rushing him and making some improvements:
He deemphasized the fastball in favor of all three offspeed pitches, especially the curveball, which is the one pitch with spin-based direction that differs from the other three, and used the changeup more as a weapon against left-handed batters. His slider has power to it but its break is short in both directions, so it can look more like a big cutter.
Only injury or arbitration considerations seem likely to keep Cavalli off the Opening Day roster in April.
Brady House – 85
Perhaps the most promising thing is that Law revealed that House took part in Instrux last fall. While that doesn’t necessarily mean House didn’t have surgery, it supports the contention that the turning 20-y.o. (June) may make it back to Fredericksburg or Wilmington in April. Law feels like House’s shift to SS may be much sooner than expected:
House only played shortstop in his limited time on the field in 2022, although it remains extremely unlikely he’ll stay at the position as he’s already too big for it and will need work over at third base to stay on the dirt.
A return to Fredericksburg seems to make the most sense for House, especially if he’s shifting to a new position.
I’m surprised to see House feature. He was already falling down prospect boards last year, and 2022 did nothing to dispel doubts.
Yes, he does have all the tools to succeed, but I suspect he’ll start the season in Fredericksburg, where he’ll no longer be particularly “young for the level”, in his age 20 season.
Me, I’m more surprised Jarlin Susana hasn’t gotten more hype on these top 100 prospect lists, especially on Law’s list, who loves toolsy players. For a pitcher, Susana is as toolsy as you get.
The thing about back injuries is they don’t get better with age. House will need to show a full season before the worries lessen.
Susana looks poised to break out in 2023.
The big stat on Green will be his K rate.
Green and House are two peas from the same pod: loud tools divided by high swing and miss. House dropped mostly due to injuries, of course. He actually had a strong April before getting hurt. If Green posts a 30% K rate, he’ll drop 40+ places on all of these lists.
I’m not predicting failure. We just all need to remember that with guess who miss a lot, it’s rarely a straight line.
Hassell himself claims that his hand issue was sapping his power. I doubt he’s a 30/30 guy, but he will still be a heck of a player if he’s 20/20 with 35-40 doubles as his peak. I would guess that his floor (assuming that he makes it) would look something like Adam Eaton.
GUYS who miss a lot. My comp for Green is Buxton.
Buxton struck out at a much, much lower rate in rookie ball. In fairness to Green it was only 12 games and the gap from his HS season to pro was longer because of CoVid, but 40% K rate is horrible. It would not shock me if Vaquero beats him out to start at Fburg or if he replaces him when he struggles.
Also House K% in rookie ball was around 20% if I remember. It is not fair to put him and Green in the same class.
Of the 5, I think Hassell has the highest floor. He will at a minimum be a major league regular. Hopefully a star.
Keith Law was the only ranking where House was a Top 100 prospect.
All we can hope is that the Nats can develop these young players.
Delino DeShields is 2023 Sens manager.
Yeah, they’re finally releasing coaching staff info for the farm today. I’m sure Luke will be all over it tomorrow.
Better late than never.
Justin Lord at Fburg is one I will watch. Susana, Bennett, and Lara could start there. Fingers crossed Chase Dollander gets there too
Paul Skenes at LSU will be interesting to follow. He is a 2-way player. He teansferred from Air Force. He is 6’6″ 235 with a FB near 100. He will be at a big time program and working with Wes Johnson, a top pitching coach. It will be interesting to see if he takes off. He does not turn 21 until late May. I love Dollander, but this could be fun.
Given that Law freely admits that he’s a “ceiling” guy more than a “floor” guy, it’s not that surprising to see Hassell a bit down on his list and House hanging in.
Well, it seems like Kiley McDaniel is listening. He just put Susana in his top 100, at 85th.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35490487/top-100-mlb-prospects-list-2023-kiley-mcdaniel
Interestingly, he left Green out of the top 100. He and House are listed in the honorable mention section at the end. If I’m remembering correctly, both McDaniel at ESPN and Longenhagen at FanGraphs (former writing partners at FG) were both down on Green before the draft, so it’s not surprising that Green’s limited 2022 performance didn’t do much to dispel doubts.