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The NationalsProspects.com Top 10 Pitchers

December 5, 2022

 


Despite the preliminary watchlist skewing towards relievers, starters ruled day (as they should) in this year’s Top 10:

  1. Cade Cavalli (1)
  2. Jarlin Susana
  3. Jake Bennett*
  4. Mitchell Parker* (7)
  5. Matt Cronin* (5)
  6. Andry Lara (3)
  7. Zach Brzykcy
  8. Jackson Rutledge (4)
  9. Cole Henry (2)
  10. Jake Irvin

Others receiving votes, excluding honorable mentions: Jose Ferrer*, Lucas Knowles*, Jack Sinclair, Gabriel Agostini*, Pablo Aldonis*, Amos Willingham, Jose Atencio, Evan Lee*, Jackson Tetreault, Tyler Yankosky, Aldo Ramirez, Dustin Saenz*

Just one of the ten comes from the 2022 draft, which even a non-draftnik like me knew was skewed toward position players, so that’s not really a surprise. Nor is six holdovers from 2021. You might remember that Lucas Giolito was on this list just about every year from 2012 to 2015, despite having TJ surgery the same year he was drafted.

Presuming Cavalli is actually healthy as was claimed in October [pause for laughter], we’ll see him in DC early in the 2023 season. He was the #1 pick on every ballot and the only one on every ballot.

The question of who else we might see in DC next summer is probably not much of a discussion. Cronin is probably the best bet, given he’s a 25-y.o. reliever and one of just two LHRPs currently on the 40-man (the other is Ferrer). But I wouldn’t put money on it, given GM Mike Rizzo’s propensity to favor veterans over rookies.

The Winter Meetings began yesterday in San Diego, which may be a fitting coda to 2022, given that the deadline trade with the Padres will define this team in 2023 and beyond. Tomorrow night is the 2023 Draft Lottery (a.k.a. the Nats, Pirates, and A’s crapshoot) to determine the first six picks next June.

Wednesday will be the Rule 5 draft and the Nats hold the #1 pick. While the CW suggests that by moving two players off the 40 the Nats will be using that pick, it’s also possible that room has been cleared for either a free agent or a trade target.

I’m kind of hoping Rizzo swings a trade with it rather than make the pick, as his trade track record is much better than his Rule 5 pick history, which, to be fair has been limited to the minor-league phase since 2010, and mostly used to restock the farm system.

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25 Commments

  1. Will says:
    December 5, 2022 at 7:19 am

    It’s a really weak top 10. On the brightside, I think we may see as many as 6 of them in the majors this year. Cavalli, Cronin, and Brzykcy seem like locks to get playing time, while one or two of Parker, Bennett and Irvin could surprise if they started the season strongly. So at least that’s something to look forward to.

  2. Alou2alu says:
    December 5, 2022 at 7:23 am

    Considering the Nats selected 3 bullpen arms in last years overall Rule depth draft , I would not be surprised at further “ dumpster diving “ .

    1. Will says:
      December 5, 2022 at 7:35 am

      Check which players have been left unprotected by the Diamondbacks.

      1. KW says:
        December 5, 2022 at 8:41 am

        Will, Rizzo’s way ahead of you, as he’s already signed a non-tendered D-back, Stone Garrett. He actually looks pretty decent: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=garret000sto
        The good news with Garrett is that he still has three options remaining.

        1. Will says:
          December 5, 2022 at 10:41 am

          He looks a heck of a lot like the last Diamondback we signed, Andrew Young. Both guys have impressive power numbers, that are inflated by the thin, dry air in Reno, and without that, their bad plate approach (strike out way too much and walk way too little) leave them extremely exposed. But we’ve gotta take chances on these kinds of guys at this point, even if just one of them (Meneses) works out.

          1. KW says:
            December 5, 2022 at 10:59 am

            Yes, but Stone Garrett from Reno sure sounds like it’s right out of a western flick, doesn’t it?

      2. Alou2alu says:
        December 5, 2022 at 4:17 pm

        Will lol
        Also check the barometer of the Nats / Phil’s rivalry after TT just inked sitting next to Diamond Dave once the young guy in Montreal ..

        1. Alou2alu says:
          December 7, 2022 at 2:35 am

          Figures the Pirates getctyectoonpongbpong bsllbss we’ve been living under Maritike Law all these centuries so Pittsburgh can draft a kid who will sign with the Yankees in six years .
          Maybe Pittsburgh can’t afford the sign and draft load of the kid many Nats are drooling over

          1. Alou2alu says:
            December 7, 2022 at 2:54 am

            Time for more coffee
            Retype
            No wonder the Pirates snagged the number one slot since we all still live under Maritime law
            Meanwhile speaking of Maritime law and Marco Polo
            Tito Polo penciled In on Harrisburg winter roster?

    2. Alou2alu says:
      December 7, 2022 at 3:19 am

      Plus Stoney Garrett has some wheels on the base paths plus
      Designated ability to patrol all 3 OF slots
      Speaking of on payroll in the outfield , I was taken outside by the Boston for 2:30 am patrol

  3. KW says:
    December 5, 2022 at 9:03 am

    I don’t blame folks for voting for Henry, as he’s probably the second-best pitcher in the organization if healthy. But he’s got a long, and somewhat unlikely, road to try to recover from thoracic outlet surgery. I do find it interesting that people would vote for Henry but not Mason Denaburg, the 2018 first-round pick, who got no votes while coming back after missing two full seasons. He actually was pretty effective at limiting hits in 2022 but was often done in by his own walks. He’ll only be in his age-23 season in 2023 and could get more or less back on track if he can do the two-level advance across A+/AA.

    The Wilmington rotation figures to feature Denaburg, Rutledge, and Lara to start the season. Don’t know whether Susana and Ramirez (if healthy) will start at A or A+. It’s possible that all five could be at Wilmington.

    1. FredMD says:
      December 5, 2022 at 9:22 am

      I was encouraged by Denaburg’s early outings but he regressed in the latter part of the season.

      I listened to an interview with Henry right after his surgery and he was upbeat. indicated he’d be ready by late spring training. his reasoning was his youth. we can only hope he’s right.

      1. KW says:
        December 5, 2022 at 10:44 am

        That would be amazing if true with Henry. Not holding my breath, but wishing him luck. Also, what’s the rush? The most important thing is to get healthy.

    2. Will says:
      December 5, 2022 at 10:48 am

      The difference between Henry and Denaburg: Henry has thrown into the 5th inning his his professional career. (Yes, that’s right. Denaburg has never gone more than 4 innings)

      When Henry has been healthy, he’s been very, very good. When Denaburg has been healthy, he has not. Still, I agree with your overall premise, and left both Henry and Denaburg off my list, but I understand why some would rank Henry. Before he got injured again, he was rightfully being talked about as a better prospect than Cavalli. Denaburg is still living off his reputation from his junior year of high school five years ago.

  4. KW says:
    December 5, 2022 at 9:29 am

    Does anyone know the health status of Tetreault and Evan Lee? I see that they did get votes. The fact that management felt compelled to shove them off the 40-man was concerning. If healthy, both could be in competition to help the big club . . . which will need a lot of help.

  5. KW says:
    December 5, 2022 at 1:16 pm

    I don’t recall us discussing Jose Ferrer much here, but his rise this year was pretty remarkable. Before 2022, he hadn’t pitched in a full-season league. Someone — maybe some of the new player personnel folks? — saw something in him, as they rolled him through three levels and onto the 40-man. Longenhagen assessment: “The stocky, 22-year-old Ferrer is a hard-throwing relief-only prospect with a short-armed, upright delivery. He sits 94-96 mph with sink and has a changeup that plays nicely off the fastball. He’s one of the many mid-minors pitchers in this org tracking like a low-variance middle reliever.”

    1. Will says:
      December 6, 2022 at 10:47 am

      You might remember me complaining about the Nationals not promoting Ferrer aggressively enough for about three years. Fortunately, that approach changed in a big way this season. After wallowing away in Rookie ball from 2018-2021 despite consistently posting elite numbers, he got promoted twice in 2022, and hopped all the way up to AA. Hope that quick rise (after a loooong wait) gives him some much deserved attention by prospect watchers. After all, he has a career 2.83 ERA and 12 K/9. And he still hasn’t turned 23 yet.

      1. KW says:
        December 6, 2022 at 11:29 am

        It certainly would be good if they could actually send some home-grown relief talent to the majors — Cronin, Brzykcy, Ferrer, et al. There sure hasn’t been much. Suero is the last one of note who comes to mind. Of course we’ve talked a lot here about the organization’s refusal to move guys to relief, choosing instead to keep them as failing starters.

        1. FredMD says:
          December 6, 2022 at 12:12 pm

          with a potential City Isle bullpen of Ferrer, Sinclair, Willingham, Yankosky, Ribalta and Carrillo there will be hope of reversing that

          1. FredMD says:
            December 6, 2022 at 12:29 pm

            I guess Carrillo is not homegrown, but he’s ours to develop at this point

          2. Mark L says:
            December 6, 2022 at 2:00 pm

            Does anyone know Yankosky’s injury. I can’t find anything.

          3. KW says:
            December 6, 2022 at 2:46 pm

            I’m looking at Carrillo’s numbers. For all the talk about what a higher-end talent he is (FG #7 overall in the system before the Soto trade), his numbers haven’t been good since he was 19, in the low minors. It’s not just walks; he also gives up way too many hits for someone whose stuff supposedly is so good (which makes one concerned that it doesn’t move enough).

            The upcoming summer will be his last one with an option, so it literally is now or never for him. (In his case, it was actually the Dodgers who put him on the 40-man too early, not the Nats.) Maybe some injuries are behind him, and maybe someone new on the Nats’ developmental staff can help him harness that alleged 100 mph stuff. We can only hope.

  6. Alou2alu says:
    December 5, 2022 at 4:20 pm

    The hopper just needs some new arms added in amateur draft and intl signings for sure .
    Pitching prospects are like girls in high school .. when some lose their luster you just add a few more to the list …
    Listen to the Doctor ( Doobie Bros )
    Play it , Simmons !!

  7. KW says:
    December 6, 2022 at 9:59 am

    Here’s a wish that I’ll be able to put Chase Dollander’s name high on this list next year, if the draft lottery gods are with the Nats tonight.

    1. Bob says:
      December 13, 2022 at 9:34 am

      Like, number one on this list and the top 30 prospect list.

Comments are closed.

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