Right Back Where We Started From
As noted on Monday, from roughly 2011 to 2019 this time of year was an exercise of girding ourselves to who we would lose in GM Mike Rizzo’s quest to get that missing piece for the playoff run. Until the Nats no longer qualified for the old joke about no DUIs (“Because you’re done after one round”), the offseasons would be about lamenting how those traded away were faring elsewhere (except maybe this guy).
But in the early days of this site, there was a certain sense of excitement about the acquisitions, especially in 2010 when Washington decided defense didn’t matter that much (a.k.a. Wilson Ramos) or perhaps Rizzo’s most notable heist: The trade of Christian Guzman for Tanner Roark, who became a valuable part of the rotation, and Ryan Tatusko, who was serviceable AA-AAA pitcher for parts of five seasons.
Yesterday, the Nats traded Juan Soto, who many have been calling the second coming of Ted Williams* along with Josh Bell for SS C.J. Abrams, LHP MacKenzie Gore, OFs Robert Hassell III & James Wood, RHP Jarlin Susana, and 1B/DH Luke Voit.
Let’s get this out the way before I go any further. For all those who kept trotting out the line “You don’t trade a Ted Williams.” Perhaps you’ve forgotten (or never considered) the Boston Red Sox never had to worry about Ted Williams leaving via free agency.
That’s not a pedantic point. It is THE point. You can argue all you want about who’s to “blame” for the trade – is it Juan Soto for turning down an offer that he and his agent (and quite a few others) believe to be below market or is it the Nationals’ for leaking the contract offers (if you believe Rizzo that he or the front office didn’t, please email me – I have a bridge to sell you) in an-even-Stevie-Wonder-can-see attempt to soften the blow?
Once the Nationals made the calculation that Juan Soto might not (or could not) be retained, they decided it was better to burn the fields and wait for the next crop, just as they did last summer (which I would argue was perhaps a season too late).
The general consensus is that the trade is one of the biggest, if not the biggest, deadline deals ever. Likewise, the return is substantial.
Because time is short this morning, I’ll have to close with just might be another money shot from Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs
This trade on its own will not make the Nationals contenders again. They need to draft, sign and develop pitching at a rate closer to that of the juggernaut teams that can create depth from within, ensuring there is a bedrock of pitching in the org at all times to make up the meat of a pitching staff and offer key injury buffer. The [Nationals’] inability to do so is a big part of how they got to the point where they felt compelled to move Soto.
Now, we wait to see how good these blueberries will be.
You can’t frame this any better than to read the takes of Feinstein and Boswell in the WaPo this morning. Owners are greedy and incompetent vs this is just the way things will play out sometimes in baseball.
I love baseball, the day the Senators left I was 13 and devastated. The day the Expos came to DC I was elated. Sitting in RFK to watch that first year team overachieve was like being a kid in watching Teddy ballgame make hitters out of scrappers in 1969.
But none of it was a fabulous as watching 2019. Seeing the players on “my”
team come through was exhilarating. I didn’t fall asleep after game seven all night. Mike Rizzo built that team and after a few years of baseball playoff unpredictability they did what so many others have not. I will miss the players
that chose to leave, and make no mistake if the player wants to stay he will.
I don’t even watch the big club right now even though I want them to win as much as ever. I’ve always enjoyed watching the prospects more and that is more difficult and painful as so many of them just aren’t good enough to make the show. But right now, even before the trade there appears to be a new plan in place. It’s no longer win now at all costs but rather develop a farm system that produces sustained success.
I am thankful for a baseball team and I am happy to ride this out with Rizzo. I’ve seen some good results in the new minor league structure and I expect more changes to come. This ain’t 1971, nobody’s taking my team away.
I appreciate your perspective Fred, but it’s funny how (despite not being alive when the Senators left) we’ve lived the same past 17 years, and I see basically the exact opposite way forward for the Nationals.
Mike Rizzo, though certainly not helped by the Lerners meddling, is to blame for the fact that we had to trade away Soto. A GM’s goal is to win. And that we did in 2019 (and quite a lot before that albeit not when it mattered). But building a winning team and building a successful farm system are not a dichotomy. Rizzo’s choice was never win now and sacrifice the future vs. lose now and build for the future. The Cardinals, Braves and Giants, and more recently the Rays, have shown that you don’t need to spend like the Yankees or Dodgers to sustain long-term success, and you don’t need to lose like the Astros (in the early 2010s) or Orioles to restock the farm system.
And yet, here we are following the Orioles’ path. Why is that? It’s because we haven’t drafted a single player out of about 350 that has contributed any value to the team in a decade. So at a time in which we need to be ridiculously successful and efficient with our draft and scouting (Every failed first round pick could set back our rebuild an additional year), why should we put a guy in charge with 10+ years of complete and utter failure in this regard?
I thank Rizzo for his service, but he’s the completely wrong person for the job he’s now dug himself.
I totally respect your opinion and am happy to have passionate fans with whom I can converse. I also couldn’t disagree with you more. I hope we can both be here in the years to come to watch it all play out.
You guys define the difference between the glass is half-empty and the glass is half-full.
Pitching pitching pitching
Next years draft will say how much brass hears the industry’s opinion of failure to develop pitching depth in farm like we see Tampa Bay do in a less cash heavy market .
Will that lottery pong ball land on the curly W or PItt?
July 2023 should see a long list of starting pitchers drafted out of college and high school ranks
If not then history will roll on ..
For me, it’s not so much how or why the Nats are in their present position, not anymore. That Soto was highly unlikely to sign an extension would have given the Nats two more years with essentially no hope of getting into the playoffs. (Heck, this season with Soto and Bell, they have the worst record in baseball.
Now, with the trades, considered by most an excellent return, a chance for success is much surer and much sooner than before. A team, which by 2024 might feature a rotation of Cavalli, Gore, Grey, Henry, and Bennett, an infield of House/Lipscomb, Abrams, García, and Meneses, an outfield of Hassell, DeLa Rosa, Robles/Thomas, and catcher Ruiz might just surprise us. I love the trade.
So much depends upon
The inclinations of the new owners
And the tv revenue streams
They are able to produce
Generally, I think Rizzo has done a good job. Davey meh, but I don’t think he’s killing the team. Lerners — well, you could definitely do a whole lot worse. (See Orioles, Commanders, and for all his Leonsis’ good-owner-ness, Wizards.)
I think there was a time about 10 years ago when “not afraid of Boras” and “not afraid of TJ” were the market inefficiencies the Nats were willing to leverage, and later, it was “just because he’s 32 doesn’t mean he’s completely done”, which also worked better than one could expect. But the Voth situation makes is pretty obvious that player development is in serious trouble. I think Rizzo should be given a shot to turn that around (they started last winter, we’ll see how that goes), and hopefully the new ownership doesn’t kneecap Rizzo by dealing directly with Boras and/or nixing trades.
They built a really good team, with more than just the 1-1 picks in Harper and Strasburg, that lasted a long time. They’ve really fallen, not just because the window closed, but because they sucked at drafting & developing. Given Rizzo’s record, I’d like to give him a chance to fix that before cutting bait.
Another comment on “you don’t trade Ted Williams” — it’s definitely a major factor that if Ted Williams were a free agent in 1948, he’d have left Boston for a less-clueless franchise — but let’s look at Soto’s comps through age 23:
Mike Trout
Frank Robinson
Bryce Harper
Miguel Cabrera
Mickey Mantle
Tony Conigliaro
Henry Aaron
Orlando Cepeda
Giancarlo Stanton
Ken Griffey Jr.
Assuming rolling the dice and ending up with one of the guys on that list, how confident are you to spend $30 million on whomever you draw in his age-37 season? Sure, 5 of them are in Cooperstown, and 2 are active, but how confident are you in betting 15 years out on that?