Shifting Gears
Between the minors’ Opening Day being just a week away and yesterday’s cuts, it’s time to end the charade and cross our fingers that 2022 will be better than 2021. And I do not mean the big club.
For the MASN Commenters who may have stumbled upon this site after light dawned on Marblehead, just one of the six Washington affiliates finished above .500 last year. The top two levels finished dead last, with the AA entry 16½ games behind its closest competitor.
Even with an influx of talent from last July’s fire sale and a draft in which the Nats suddenly discovered it was possible to draft high-ceiling players who haven’t gone to college, this is still a bottom-third organization (#26 per BA).
Let’s be honest: Most of the rebuilds will function to buy time, with exception of Keibert Ruiz who just might be the first under-30, two-way catcher for the franchise since Brian Schneider (Jesus Flores if you’re feeling generous). The rest were to provide depth, which is still sorely lacking.
This season will be one in which we see if they’ve truly shaken things up with the installation of DeJon Watson as the Director of Player Development. But I don’t think we’re going to be able to tell until July or August at the earliest.
I am curious, for example, to see who gets left behind in Florida for XST. I am also interested to see if the 2021 tendency to be more forthcoming with releases and injuries continues, or if we’ll revert to the mean.
And finally, I’m always looking forward to seeing which guys break out unexpectedly, even if they never actually make it all the way. Because most of them will not.
We now return you to your January-in-March Tuesday…
And now for a funny story which Todd especially will enjoy since the individual who shared it with me once donned not only a Wash Sens Jersey but a Minnesota Twins knit , a Montreal Expo Dairy Queen- ish M and a Yankee pinstripe .
I crossed paths in my travels with Bernie Allen who was coming back from a cruise via the Panama Canal
If anyone has previously heard this story he shared .. bear with me ..
Ted Williams as Sens manager
Insitituted a $1,000 fine on anyone caught playing golf .
Since Bernie was team player rep he went to speak with Ted , who said that the golf play would mess with a players swing .
Bernie reminded Ted that he swung left handed but swung a driver right handed . ( Bernie reminded me that he and Ted did not see eye to eye too well).
Bernie was traded to the Yankees shortly thereafter .
I did ask Bernie his opinion of the Senators fan base challenge back in the day . He thought the fans who showed up were just rooting for the opposing teams especially the Orioles .
( Bernie Allen Purdue University alum like Oriole / Red Merv Rettmund)
Blake Finney on fed bb
Spot on this morning .
Chris Archer to Twins a good example of what we expected Rizzo to do .
Maybe the Nats are keeping the foot off the gas of retooling like what Blackhawk fans hope for a tanking in 23 for that once in 30 year talent on the horizon ..
There may be more birds in Nats park watching baseball played than fans in 22.
São M: Charlie Brown might be a last minute rotation addition
Lol
Where does Cueto sign last minute ?
Todd you might be right about F Perez on the DFA short list
Who gets Stevenson’s ole 17 number ?? Hmmmm
The watch list guys never even appeared in any of the spring training games; this spring was just weird.
Looking forward to the roster assignments, which should be out in the next week or so.
Just bringing my post from earlier today forward since I’d lost track of which loss Luke was reporting on, since they’re all blurring together.
This team is going to be baaaaaddd.
And the worst part is that there’s not even going to be any interesting prospects to watch beyond Ruiz and Gray. The average age of both the rotation and the bullpen is 32 (!!), the line up: 30. The youngest player on the team is Juan Soto, entering his 5th professional season.
As I’ve said before and will continue saying, this team isn’t going to win for another 5 years or more. Besides Luis Garcia, there’s absolutely nothing of note in the upper minors to make this awful line up better in the short term. We’re going to have to cross our fingers and hope Brady House and at least 3 of Infante/Lile/White/De la Rosa/Quintana/Cruz/Vaquero (none of whom have appeared above Fredericksburg) soar through the minors and arrive in DC at some point in 2024, so the club has a chance of fielding a competitive team in 2025-2026. But that’s exceptionally unlikely.
The pitching staff’s situation is a bit less bleak with a couple of arms closer to being big league ready, but we can’t afford for any of Cavalli, Henry and Rutledge to bust, because after them, there’s another massive gulf in talent.
The regular Top 5 draft picks that inevitably will come over the next half decade will help, but they alone won’t turn around the farm system. It’s especially puzzling that the Nationals, with a daunting rebuild ahead of them, have opted to dump almost all their IFA resources into one high-value prospect (Cruz and Vaquero using more than 90% of their annual total bonus pool), rather than spreading the risk around through multiple mid-tier talents. It’s frustrating because it goes against what brought the Nationals so much success with IFAs in recent history. Neither Soto nor Robles were premium talents, but mid-tier talents when they were signed.
I fear the 2020s are going to be frighteningly similar to the 2000s. No direction or clear plan to elevate the club to a perennial contender. Let’s just hope we can stumble again into the next generation’s Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper as we regularly lose 100 games per season.
Wil and all
50 wins in 22?
This rebuild maybe slower than the build after the moving trucks arrived from Quebec
Granted the 2019 trophy sits in the upper offices .
Rizzo may have to get lucky on a few free agents who want to re – invent their careers passing through the District .
Always a bummer when two NCAA don’t get career traction
Too bad Randa couldn’t jump ahead of the curve and help A plus .
It’s always about getting to AA
The new coaches and the new technologies will have some impact in 2022, but we won’t see the full extent of the supposed improvements until 2023 or 2024. The Hawkeye technology won’t be fully deployed until mid-season this year. Years of player selection and development failure will take years to correct.
I agree with Will that the big club is going to be bad, and with Luke that the system in general ain’t gonna be great. The exception may be Fredericksburg, depending on how much of the young talent they push there. House, Infante, Baker, and Frizzell and/or Boissiere figure to be in the infield, with some combination of Lile, White, Quintana and maybe De La Rosa (unless he’s promoted) in the outfield (although not all of those young guys may start in full-season ball). Rotation could include Lara, Denaburg, Saenz, and possibly Ramirez unless they push him on to A+. That’s a heck of a lot of what we hope is the future on one squad.
I have returned to the 30 degree weather of central PA from the 80s of WPB. Here are some final observations from spring training. I attended three MLB games and the offense is struggling. I saw Strasburg pitch a bullpen session and he looked good. Insiders say they are taking it slow with him. Attendance at the games and workouts was very small compared to years past. Workers there said alot of fans canceled their plans due to the lockout.
For the minors, Rochester players are breaking camp this Thursday so look for roster moves soon. It’s odd that majors will be there later than minors. I saw Henry pitch and he looked good. Many days the players just had practice jerseys on so it was tough to determine the player. I did see Lara play short and he made a couple errors. On the positive side, Robles did get a hit in an intra squad game! Finally, it was good to be back in WPB and see some baseball.
Reminds me that Rochester’s season starts before the Nats. We should know their roster any day.
Thanks for the intel LM.
I’m expecting press releases on Monday afternoon.
Luke you were correct about how we may not see farm progress until the August sun shines and all the newly planted
Techno adjective to the operation is absorbed .
Yes we may see some improvement in guys who’ll never see the show : case in point : Pal Joey , Ydens , Christopher DeLaRosa .. Connell , Longo , but after awhile they are just toiling on the planta- farm …
Harrisburg Senators outfield heading north ?
Rhinesmith , Armand , Canning , Mendez , Antuna , Connell and or Ydes31???
I guess we stop all the ‘Cavalli is ready’ talk. In 2.1 innings today he gave up 10 earned runs.
Actually, he fits right in!
Our 2022 pitching staff:
Anibal Sanchez: 14.21 ERA
Josiah Gray: 9.00 ERA
Kyle Finnegan: 12.27 ERA
Sean Doolittle: 27.00 ERA
Steve Cishek: 9.00 ERA
Tanner Rainey: 9.00 ERA
Will Harris: 9.00 ERA
Cade Cavalli: 14.04 ERA
This is gonna be a loooonnnggg season…
I was not one who thought Cavalli was ready for the jump, based on his AAA challenges at the end of last season. It will be interesting to see what they do with him as 2022 progresses. Do they want to burn MLB service time on him if it’s looking like a lost season? Or conversely, do they want him to start figuring things out at the MLB level when the stakes aren’t high, as they had Josiah Gray doing at the end of 2021?
It also will be interesting to see whether they stretch Carrillo out as a starter or begin converting him to relief. They desperately need help in both areas. And dare I even ask the fate of Romero, who didn’t even get in an MLB game before getting cut? They kept him stretched out as a starter last year as well. Is there any reason to continue to hold out hope that he’ll turn into something?
Noticed in Cavalli’s minor league starts that he’s subject to big innings. Not sure if its pitching from the stretch, or confidence or lack of concentration, but Cade seems to have a lot of starts when he’s unhittable initially, a base runner gets on, and all of sudden, Cavalli can’t get an out. He’s often unhittable again if he makes it through the bad inning. Yesterday, was an extreme example, but it was a pattern last year.
Baseball America has both Brady House and TJ White as having great camps. Both showing power. House has hit some absolute bombs (according BBA) and others. White has played both corner spots and may see time at 1st. Fburg should be fun.