Offseason Update: Sept. 22, 2020
Doing its best imitation of the CDC, conflicting reports came out yesterday regarding fall baseball from Baseball America.
In what appears to be the first story, BA reports that a fall instructional league will begin on Oct. 5. Curiously, the article lists Washington and a handful of other teams that train in Florida, leading to the inference that there may be a similar announcement forthcoming regarding instructs, presuming south Florida will survive a prolific hurricane season.
A second story confirms what Lee told me months ago: There will be no Arizona Fall League in 2020, “citing an abundance of caution in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.” (Quotes because that’s in the BA article, though I suspect it may been taken from an interview.)
While it is implied that timing is a factor – the AFL was scheduled to start this Thursday – there is no explanation as to why the AFL has been canceled while the instructs have not.
The first story also says “the AFL’s traditional facilities—Salt River Fields, Scottsdale Stadium, Surprise Stadium, Peoria Sports Complex, Sloan Park and Camelback Ranch—were well-suited to deal with 40-plus players as well as coaches and other staff members while still maintaining proper physical distancing.”
This begs some questions:
- Where will the instrux be played if not the aforementioned facilities?
- Why will it be safer to play the instrux there?
- What effect will the eleven (11) days’ difference have on safety?
- Do the differing quarters affect how MLB can write off its paper losses?
The last question refers to the tidbit that the particpating minor-leaguers will be paid at the rate for the level that they would have been assigned to in 2020. In other words, another month’s pay. There are no details regarding where, whether, and/or how the players will housed or fed.
While I know many of you are hungry for news on our guys, I think we can expect the same amount of information that we’ve been getting from the Alternative Training Sites.
Speaking of which…
I was in Fredericksburg last week and did a driveby of the new stadium. It looks great though I’m concerned about the parking. I suspect there will be tiers with the season-ticket holders and VIPs allowed to park in the lot closest to the gate while the hoi polloi (i.e. most of us) will be made to park (and probably charged to do so) up the hill by the Expo Center. I’m curious to see what measures they will take to prevent people from walking in from elsewhere.
Until next time…
Yadiel Hernandez — Legend. Well, at least for one night. Good for him.
While concerns remain about the depth/quality of the Nats Farm system, the Nats’ prospects have a had good run of late with Yaddy, Braymer, Garcia, Stevenson, and McGowin (even Voth) making recent contributions. With lots of contracts expiring, there are going to be available spots on the MLB roster in 2021.
As I put it on Todd’s site, Rizzo doesn’t have much choice but to rebuild in 2021. The Nats were an old team in 2019. They haven’t gotten any younger. More than half of the roster is over 30, sixteen were born in the Reagan Administration — four in his first term.
I know everyone and their grandmother will point to Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin and say this team is a WS favorite. But you’re fooling yourself if you don’t think Scherzer is slipping. Martinez, who has reverted to the mean in terms of his managerial ineptness, still refuses to **manage** Scherzer. Strasburg is now a Jaguar again: runs great… when it’s not in the shop (and it’s always in the shop). Perhaps more disconcerting is how Partick Corbin, the youngest of The Big Three, has pitched like a free agent changing leagues (or at least when that was a thing).
Luis Garcia has been a great surprise, enough to say Starlin Castro should look up who Wally Pipp was (though he could beat out Kieboom next spring). But I’m not as optimistic about the likes of Crowe, Fedde, and Voth, who haven’t been able to consistently get guys out on the second turn through the lineup. Sure, a healthy Joe Ross might solve that problem, but Ross hsan’t eclipsed 100 IP in MLB in four years.
How many DeLaCruz can you stockpile in farm .
Is Moron pronounced Mor – rone or Moron like what a cynical fan would call a pitcher who gets shelled ??
It’s probably pronounced muh-rohn, but given the number of morons that couldn’t grasp Joan as Yo-ahn, it’ll mispronounced. Relative to nothing, I went to high school with a guy named Todd Penas. He legally changed his last name to Pennas for rather obvious reasons.
The Pitcher that’s out of sight out of mind, who is arguably the best athlete, and as talented a pitcher in the National’s system is Jackson Tetreault. At 6′ 5” 195lbs from 170lbs since the 2017 draft and touted by scouts as one of the most if not the most projectable Pitcher in the 2017 draft is a diamond in the ruff if the Nationals dont srew it up. And so far they have. While Paul Menhart was the National’s Director of Pitching, he would come in to see Tetreault at games, talk to him after outings during the 2018 season and mentor him. Since Menhart is now the National’s Pitching Coach, whomever took over Menhart’s position in in 2019, Tetreault’s all important AA season, never came in to see him, talk to him, mentor him etc one time. The National’s brought him up fast, young, and diserted him. That is not how to develop a prospect! This guy is not even in Fredricksburg for the 2020 season and should be based on this info alone. Tetreault after dominating High A in 2019 with only 5 starts earning a 1.23 era at only 22 + years old, was one of the quickest movers to AA, April 29th, 2019 from the 2017 draft. Tetreault threw to a 3.80 his first 11 starts in AA which I would say is not to shabby for a young prospect. # 2 pick and 2 years older, Will Crowe’s first 6 starts in AA was 0-5 with a 6.17 era and a MILB career era of 3.87 era through AA while Tetreault is at 3.87 also. Yes he had some controll problems in the second half of 2019 but, he’s young, got no help, but the experience is worth something. I hear he has been training in San Diego with Dom Johnson, one of the top Pitching Coaches in the Country the last 4 months and is killing it. I’ts a shame, Tetreault with a 95+ mph fastball, greatly improved Controll, Curve, Slider with an improved changeup, is right under the National’s nose but they can’t see him!
Luke all valid points.
For the Nats’ to be anything other than a rebuilding team next year, they are going to need Strasburg and Corbin to play to the expectation of their contracts. With his injury history and now coming off surgery, there are valid reasons to worry about Stras, and kind of lost in the concerns about the Nats’ play in 2020 has been Patrick Corbin. Thought Corbin was the unsung hero of the Nats title run, but as of yesterday, he had given up more hits than any other NL pitcher in 2020. If he’s just another starter (or worse) in 2021, the Nats have no shot. Agree that Scherzer is declining.
As a big of concern as the rotation will be, no one is pitching to Soto next year unless they Nats sign a legit bat in the off-season. Not sure if given the current circumstances, the Nats will be forking out big time cash heading in 2021, but as much as the Nats need to shore up the rotation, the lineup is a bigger concern.
Will take issue with one point: think Fedde is starting to turn the corner. Not saying he is going to be Cy Young contender, but his velo is up, and he’s pitching deeper into games. I’m OK with Fedde being a rotation piece in 2021.
I sure hope so about Fedde because the odds of all three reverting to 2019 (or earlier) form is very low.
Via the “eye test,” Garcia looks a lot better than I thought he would. I’ve been fairly negative about him, based on his mediocre AA numbers in particular. I would pump the brakes before everyone gets too excited, though. His 2.4% BB rate and 20.2% K rate are not a good combo. He’s benefited from a generous .351 BABIP. His 30.2% hard contact rate is encouraging but not yet great. His overall fWAR is -0.3 . . . the same as Kieboom’s.
I’m really surprised at how much of a bust Kieboom has been thus far. Sao did keep reminding us that his extra-base power had almost totally dried up during the second half at Fresno last year. Really, the only positives have been his 13.9% BB rate and fielding that has been much better than feared. There’s just not a lot to like at the plate, though: only one extra-base hit in 122 PAs (giving him .212 SLG and .010 ISO), 27% K rate, and a lowly 22.4% hard-hit rate. He even had not-terrible .299 BABIP “luck.” He just didn’t hit the ball that often, and when he did make contact, it wasn’t hard contact.
This was only Kieboom’s age-22 season, so there’s still plenty of time for him to turn things around. But the struggles of Kieboom and Robles (five months older than Kieboom, with the same K rate and even slightly lower hard-hit rate) are very concerning for the immediate future of the organization. There’s no one anywhere close in line in the system to fill in for them, either. Robles was at the top of the prospect list for several years, and was succeeded by Kieboom (with Soto notably blowing past both of them). These guys are supposed to be the cornerstones of the next generation of the franchise.
Luke, this is right up your alley. I saw the big announcement that the Atlantic League is now a ‘partner league’ with MLB.
The question is.. what the he’ll does that mean?
I have no idea.
I saw a stat 10 days ago that Corbin had the worst WHIP of any starting pitcher.
Corbin has sort of oscillated between “perfectly fine” and “oh no baby what is you doing” throughout the shortened season. Hopefully he reworks his sinker grip and maybe polishes up his butterfly pitch a little during the offseason. It just seems like he’s either got guys fooled on the slider or they’re laying off the slider and everything else is just getting hammered.
I keep saying this about Corbin, but — and we knew this when we signed him — he is a one-trick pony. It’s a really good trick! But it’s just one trick. And if it’s not working, he doesn’t have much else to get him through.
With Rutledge and Cavalli on the cusp, not really worried about pitching as much as I am about the infield.
They really need to find a permanent solution at first base – no more bandaids.
Gotta have a consistent big bat there, not a collection of spare parts like we’ve had over the past 6 years like Thames, Adams, Moore, Robinson, Zimmerman (the bad version), Lind, Reynolds, etc…. Sadly, don’t see anyone on the farm capable of taking over any time soon. And let’s not even get to catcher…although signing Realmuto would certainly solve that problem:)
They also better pray Kieboom turns it around and fast cuz, jeez, ONE extra base hit just ain’t gonna cut it. Not sure what the heck is going on there – it’s not like he never showed power before.