Vote for Your Favorite Arms
Folks are itching to get to this one, so let’s get this party started.
Like the bats, you can send your Top 10 list to enfieldmass-top10arms[at]yahoo[dot]com (link will open your preferred email client) or post them in the comments.
Once we have enough votes, I’ll weight ’em in reverse order (#1 = 10 points, #2 = 9 points … #9 = 2 points, #10 = 1 point) and post the results along with any comments or snark. As we did a year ago, we have some “last few on the 40” guys with rookie eligibility, including Austen Williams (27), Kyle McGowin (28), Ben Braymer (26), and James Bourque (26). Those parentheticals refer to their ages as of May 1, 2020.
Last year’s #1 pitched like number two (the kind you don’t want to step in) in the GCL, which was reportedly due to a shoulder injury. Among the returnees, Tim Cate would seem to be the logical successor for the top spot, if for no other reason than he’s the only pitcher from last year’s Top 10 who pitched better in 2019 than in 2018 without missing more than one start. Next, you’re probably debating Wil Crowe’s ascension to AAA vs. Sterling Sharp’s injury-shortened regular season but strong showing in the AFL.
But I could be wrong about that, too. That’s the point (and the fun) of this little exercise to mark (kill?) time until the spring…
[Reposting Sao’s vote/comment as a courtesy, save time, etc.]
Oh, are we voting for pitchers now?
1. Jackson Rutledge
2. Tim Cate
3. Steven Fuentes
4. Matt Cronin
5. Sterling Sharp
6. Wil Crowe
7. Carson Teel
8. Mario Sánchez
9. Karlo Seijas
10. Ben Braymer
HM: Austen Williams, Jhonatan German, Reid Schaller, Alex Troop, Gabe Klobosits
To explain a couple of my notable omissions: I don’t believe in prep/international pitchers until they show they can perform in pro ball, which Mason Denaburg hasn’t and Andry Lara hasn’t yet had the opportunity to do. Seth Romero has a high ceiling, but he hasn’t done anything to help his standing and he needs to get back on a mound before I take him seriously for this exercise or, you know, in general.
Overall, the state of Nats prospect pitching is far better than the state of the bats. Honestly, I can see any of the 15 guys I named, including the honorable mentions, having reasonably decent major league careers. I hope this is the offseason we start to see underappreciated prospects like Teel, Sánchez, Seijas, and Troop popping onto organizational lists.
Luke. A book keeping
Item in Mario Sanchez re- signing predated 12/18???
Howie re- signs. Now if Orlando C re- signs that’s a huge signal / torch on Rendon / Boras path ??
We should accept Carter K as part of the 2020 equation
Would Rizzo select Max Schrock in Rule 5 Thursday ??
In the spirit of Rick Monday 1981. I love the Howie re- sign because now I can bust the baseballs of dodger fans with : how you like Howie now???
Greg Bird Fresno contract in the next month ???
Thanks Luke!
Do the Nats scout inHonduras ??
Speaking of arms. Fresno Finnegan .
John Ford would love the poetry in the names Doolittle and Finnegan warming up in the bullpen …
Jimmy Gonzalez reports must have landed on Nats software since Kyle Finnegan pitched @ San Marcos / Texas State
Could this be the year the First trade goes down between Expo/ Nats and Orioles since the hallowed Ryan Minor deal ??
Bird land has some kids on the way ….
Match should be fun to see where kids like Cluff , Marincasa and Danny Hernandez are @…..
Happy Holidays one and all. Remember what Luke says. Plate discipline. That’s with the wrist habit too..,,and call an Uber if in trouble …
Good Evan Grant piece in this am Dallas Morning News
3 b option for short term ?? Nats trade for Miguel Andujar from NYY??
I wonder how the conversation goes between Rizzo and Theo about Bryant ??
1. J. Rutledge
2. W. Crowe
3. T. Cate
4. A. Hernandez
5. M. Cronin
6. T. Dyson
7. B. Braymer
8. S. Sharp
9. M. Sanchez
10. S. Fuentes
HMs: J. Adon, Tetreault, Schaller, Irvin, Raquet
James : if Sharp goes Rule 5 to Detroit then who jumps onto top ten ? Tetrualt or Adon?
I live down the street from a Gabe’s so that’s a sign Klovosits returns strong
1. Rutledge
2. Fuentes
3. Crowe
4. Cate
5. Braymer
6. Cronin
7. Bourque
8. Sharp
9. Hernandez
10. Teel
Some other players of note:
Mario Sanchez: I didn’t include him because of his age (25) and his lack of a track record at the higher levels
Bartow and Irvin just missed the cut. Bartow doesn’t miss enough bats, and Irvin hasn’t been tested much (only thrown at Hagerstown). 2020 could see any of them jump toward the top of the list if they had a good season.
On the other side, this is a make-or-break season for Crowe, Cate, Braymer, Bourque and Sharp. I don’t expect any will be on my list next season, as they will all have either graduated or fallen off the prospect horizon.
Sometimes the best results take time to simmer in hurlers
I went through the levels listing pitchers to consider and came up with 42 names. The Nats may have ridiculously little depth in the organization on the bats side, but there’s plenty of arms. Now, there are only three or four I would consider high-ceiling arms, maybe even only one or two (particularly with Denaburg and S. Romero in the Witness Protection Program and Fedde, Voth, and McGowin more or less considered as “graduated.”). But it wouldn’t surprise me if at least 15-20 of these guys spend some time in the majors. It also wouldn’t surprise me if several of these folks end up as trade chips.
1. Jackson Rutledge
2. Matt Cronin
3. Tim Cate
4. Steven Fuentes
5. Seth Romero
6. Sterling Sharp
7. Mason Denaburg
8. Reid Schaller
9. Malvin Pena
10. Joan Adon
1. Rutledge
2. Cronin
3. Fuentes
4. Sanchez
5. Crowe
6. Cate
7. Troop
8. Braymer
9. Sharp
10. Condra-Bogan
HM: Teel, A Hernandez, Istler, Irvin, Adon, Tetreault, Schaller, A Lee, E Lee
Four of the guys in my top 10 will be/turn 25 next season, and Braymer will be 26, so half of those guys are sort of at a make-or-break juncture. The outlier on my main list is Troop, who only walked three (3) guys across 44 innings. He should be fully healthy for 2020 and ready to make a move.
Troop destiny F- troop someday or whatever inverted AAA outpost in an old EL/ AA town ??
I couldn’t bring myself to put Troop in my top ten because he’s pretty old (23) for the levels he was at this year (A-/A), but you’re right, he was video game good this year. A potential breakout candidate in 2020. If he’s healthy, he could move very fast.
It’s really nice to have a 1st-round pick who has A) actually shown up; B) actually pitched well; and C) hasn’t managed to hurt himself (yet).
Sao — FWIW, Troop’s birthday is in July, so it actually counted as his “age-22” season. But yes, the clock will be ticking a little faster on him. They didn’t use him until mid-season as he came back from injury, but he was embarrassing guys in the NY-Penn League in three games there, so they sent him on to Hags, where he was nearly as good. I almost didn’t include him because he only pitched 44 innings, but everyone is doing cartwheels over Sharp based on 49.2, so why not?
I’ve been high on Troop since he was drafted. He was a Friday starter plus a finalist for the nation’s best two-way player, so a good athlete, and big (6-5). He’s also got extremely low mileage on his arm, as he missed most of his second season at Michigan State after he broke is wrist playing 1B. College and pro combined, over the last five years, he’s only got 237 innings of game action. (By comparison, in only four college/pro years, Cate has 418.1 IP.) That also means Troop may be a little inexperienced, which may also explain why they didn’t rush him back to a higher level.
We’ll see. I imagine the Nats are hoping that several guys they deploy to the new FredNats, also including Rutledge and Cronin, will be able to move on up to Harrisburg in good order.
I do wonder, in looking at all of these pitchers, where the Nats are going to be able to place all of them where they’ll get enough work, particularly the starters. They’ve already got the dual problems of the PCL destroying the confidence of nearly every pitcher sent there combined with not wanting the emergency arms across the country. With Fedde, Ross, and Voth out of options, I assume that McGowin will the the top on-call starter, and therefore at Harrisburg. Crowe, Sanchez, and Braymer all got clobbered in the PCL. Do they send them back to endure the same fate? Do they expose Sharp and Fuentes (suspension will run most of April) to similar suffering, not to mention Condra-Bogan and Istler? Do they free some AA starter slots by moving guys like Raquet and Andrew Lee to the ‘pen? Or do they keep them as starters until some of the horde of FredNats starters are ready to move up?
It will be interesting, and we may see a number of those 4-inning split starts, even at the AA level.
Just scribbling on the back of an envelope, but I picture rotations something like:
Fresno: Wil Crowe, Mario Sanchez, Kyle McGowin, presumably Sterling Sharp if he isn’t drafted or is returned midseason, plus probably some veteran filler guys
Harrisburg: Tim Cate, Jackson Tetreault, Eduardo Vera, Tyler Mapes, presumably Steven Fuentes if he isn’t drafted and once he returns from suspension
Fredericksburg: Jackson Rutledge, Tomas Alastre, Reid Schaller, Alex Troop, Jake Irvin
Hagerstown: Seth Romero, Joan Adon, Tyler Dyson, Alfonso Hernandez, Niomar Gomez
Auburn and GCL are hard to predict, in part because it’s unclear how aggressive the Nats will be with the likes of Mason Denaburg and Rodney Theophile, who were hurt this year. I think they’ll be aggressive with Seth Romero for sure, though, because the clock is ticking and it’s time for him to either sink or swim.
I think they move Andrew Lee and Nick Raquet into the ‘pen after they worked out there in the AFL. Carson Teel is borderline, and I can see him occupying a rotation spot for a few weeks and then moving into the ‘pen once Fuentes is back, or if he continues to perform well as a starter, they could bump Vera or release Mapes (who turns 29 next summer).
Francys Peguero started seeing more time out of the ‘pen after his promotion this year, and I expect him to stay there. Reid Schaller is ticketed for the ‘pen at some point, and while I think he’s kept in the rotation for now, he’s one I wouldn’t be surprised to see shift into a ‘pen role, especially if the Nats (who seem to be higher on Malvin Peña than I am) want Peña to keep starting.
Gomez should move to the ‘pen eventually, too, but I think he remains a starter for now. He could get pressure eventually from the likes of Karlo Seijas and Eddy Yean, who should be assigned to Auburn but have the potential to move up, whether as starters or relievers, before the end of the short season, or Denaburg if he’s healthy. Adon is also in the category of “someday reliever” but he’s a lot more touted as a prospect than Gomez.
Well done São
Lot of coin flipping here as well:
1). Jackson Rutledge
2). Tim Cate
3). Will Crowe
4). Ben Braymer
5). Sterling Sharp
6). Matt Cronin
7). Steven Fuentes
8). Reid Schaller
9). James Bourque
10). Mason Denaburg
Crap, now we have to find room for Kyle Finnegan. Um…I’ll toss him on at #7 and everyone moves down one.
Even though he’s 28?
Is it just me, or does Finnegan seem like a sightly shorter version of Austin Adams? We’ll see. He’s 28 years old. Very curious that they’re giving him a major-league contract. I guess they figure that there’s not much lost if they have to DFA him. He’s said to touch triple digits. Maybe he has a Tanner Rainey type upside.
Not changing my votes. I didn’t vote for anyone over 26, even though Istler (27) looks pretty good on paper.
If we’re talking about viability, though, I’d bet Finnegan makes the bigs at some point in 2020, maybe in the very early going. I don’t know about his ceiling, but his floor speaks for itself — he is on a major league roster.
Rizzo loves Beane cultured guys … or else Texas school products ..
The Nationals have scouted his college closely while he has been there, and as Jeff alludes to, have draftees from there. So, in Rizzo speak, “We’ve known the player” for a long time. Those are the best ones to get. This was not a signing based only on his performance, and perhaps he was drafted higher than the Nats expected, but was on their board once upon a time. If he performs in the spring, we’ll surely hear the whole story.
But kudos to the Nats for opening up the spaces to make these kind of signings (though the offset is the risk of losing Sharp, Fuentes, and Reetz). There may well be more players who are lured with a 40 man spot.
A big positive with the Finnegan experiment is that he has three option years left, so it’s not like when they took on Triple-Digit Cordero and had to DFA him to get him back to the minors. He looks like he’s worth a shot, and we know the Nats and A’s scout each other’s farm systems pretty well. I’m just scratching my head over why the Nats felt compelled to give him a major-league contract and tie up a 40-man slot.
Because if they did not give him a roster spot he would have signed elsewhere. Because someone else liked him too, and that includes the A’s.
Elementary my dear Watson( Grissom)!! Merry Christmas
Does Rizzo go controllable Carter K for 6-7 years or add Bryant and patch 2 b until the next wonder kid rises ??
If the Cubbies are so keen to move salary, then they would have no difficulty with the Nats negotiating with Bryant before agreeing to a trade. The Nats can negotiate with Boras on Bryant just as they would for Rendon. If they agree on terms, they can exploit the Cubs zeal to deal and bring Bryant in on an AAV that fits well with when Max comes off the books.
That said, I’d rather have Rendon.
The team can push Kieboom to the fore and is using that public face. However, he has not EVER played 3B. True, Rendon broke in at a new position (2B) when he first came up, but he was Rendon, and a player with a college pedigree. Kieboom is younger and that would be quite a demand of someone who has already moved quickly through the system.
It seems to me that the deferral issue is relevant to negotiations with Rendon, Strasburg, and Donaldson and Bryant.
Of course, Rizzo is a magician at pulling a solution out of his hat that we had not yet considered. But I do think that the biggest drama is how long Rizzo and the team are willing to wait on Rendon, whom I guess is squeezing whatever he can from the Lerners. I think Boras took Mark Lerner seriously, Strasburg wanted to be here, and they got it done. I also think Rendon wants to be here, but the delta with Texas may be too much.
Signing Strasburg, and the way they did it, was a brilliant move for a message to Rendon and others who might be considering DC. I’m not sure I see Kieboom as the 3B solution now.
I do, however, think other teams value Nats prospects much more than we do, and I think Rizzo can get whom he needs. He gets respect for offering quality for quality.
This is damn near a quote that I remember regarding Billy Beane, which may explain why they often do trades together.
Personally, I’m more-than-half-expecting Kieboom *and* Garcia to go in a 4-for-2 swap to get a new 3B. I’ll leave it to you guys to speculate on who they might get, but I’d also much rather re-sign Rendon.
The Nats need low cost position players to balance out the payroll. If they traded both Garcia and Kieboom (or either IMO), they essentially will have to pay a premium to add any position player to the lineup at any time of the next 3+ years. Just can’t see how the Nats can afford to do that.
I would put the over/under at 90 for Carter Kieboom starts for the Nats next year, and those starts could come at either 2b or 3b, depending on who the Nats sign or trade for to play the other spot (they really need a left-handed bat).
I’m not disagreeing with you, but I don’t think the Nats have the “chips” to keep one or the other. To get a long-term replacement at 3B, it’s gotta be both
Ponch and Jon. Otherwise, they’re going to have to get a seat-warmer like Brian Dozier this year and hope Luis Garcia will be ready by midseason (or when Howie Kendrick gets hurt).Yadiel Hernandez is a lefthanded bat. Cheap, controllable, and doesn’t even require a roster spot. All discounting of the PCL aside, he has gone on to Mexico this winter and is tearing it up there as well. His unbelievable OBP and low strikeouts are ballpark-independent stats, and his power is to all fields.
How much of a trade chip is a cost-considerate Adam Eaton based on his last run in 2019?
I hope Yadi gets his day with the Curly W instead of elsewhere. The fact that he has not run off to Japan (yet) gives me hope that his chance will come.