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FanGraphs Releases Top 21 List

My track record of being a day too early for a news peg remains intact…

If you’re looking for validation that “Next Man Up” is Carter Kieboom—and the one after that is Luis Garcia—you’ll be pleased. If you’re thinking ahead to the depth necessary to sustain next summer’s injuries to the starting pitching, then you might be concerned.

Let’s dive into the 20-80 scale that FanGraphs uses before we stack ’em up: 40 is a backup, 50 is a starter, 60 is an All-Star, 70 is a Top 10 player, 80 is Top 5. For pitchers, it’s a little different – the scale is keyed on starting pitchers and breaks down: 40 (FIP ~5; #5/6) to 45 (4.20; #4/5) to 50 (4.00; #4) to 55 (3.70; #3/4) to 60 (3.30; #3) to 70 (>3.00; #2). Eighty-grade pitchers are your top 1-3 arms in the game. For more info, read their primer.

Now, let’s break down their Top 21 by scale:

60 Carter Kieboom
50 Luis Garcia
45 Jackson Rutledge, Mason Denaburg, Wil Crowe
40+ Andry Lara, Eddy Yean, Matt Cronin
40 Tim Cate, Seth Romero, Drew Mendoza, Yasel Antuna, Jeremy De La Rosa, Israel Pineda, Joan Adon
35+ Roismar Quintana, Jackson Cluff, Raudy Read, James Bourque, Tyler Dyson, Reid Schaller

(Italics = New for 2020; Bold = Improved from 2019)

Roughly a third of the list is new – about half are 2019 draft picks. Graduating from last year: Victor Robles and Tanner Rainey. Gone from the system: Sterling Sharp (Rule 5) and Taylor Guilbeau (traded). Dropped out: Gage Canning, Malvin Peña, Jordan Mills, Ben Braymer, and Brigham Hill.

Notable nuggets I spotted in the writeups…

• Kieboom as good as Trea Turner at SS? On defense? I think we’re parked, man.I think we’re parked, man.

• Garcia projecting better at 2B than 3B? I’ve read and seen that as Garcia grows into his “man body,” (Lee’s pics this past fall certainly show that he’s no longer a beanpole) he’ll be a step too slow for shortstop, but this is the first I’ve seen not suggesting third base as an alternative.

• Tanner Roark redux? They’re still high on Crowe and he’s their comp.

• Back to the ‘pen for Cate? Let’s hope the FO doesn’t read this (see: Fedde, Erick).

• Seth Romero sighting? They’re saying Romero was clocked in the mid-90s in instrux. If he can make it through spring training without getting suspended, who knows?

• There’s a sizable list of of “Younger Potential Helium Types,” which includes some of our spots from the GCL/DSL like Viandel Peña, Junior Martina, Leandro Miliani (sic).

As noted comments, this is a writeup that leans heavily toward scouting, so you might not always see the kind of numbers you’d like to see if/when you look them up.

9 Commments

  1. As I noted yesterday, there is a ton of information in the FG report, stuff to which we would have no access. The piece also offers good insight into what scouts are looking at verses what we see, and what we observe in the stats. But goodness, in some cases, they seem to completely ignore the stats.

    I hope they’re right about the Hiura comp for Kieboom, as Hiura looks like he’s going to be a heck of a hitter. Like everyone else, though, I’m scratching my head at the comment that Carter K might be a better SS than Trea, who played most of the season with a damaged hand.

    If there are other teams out there who actually believe Crowe is the next Roark, please trade him to one of them NOW, before he takes the mound again in Fresno. I would love to think that’s true, but I just don’t see it, other than in build.

    Scratching my head about how Rutledge can have “some of the best stuff on Earth” but only rank #3 in a down system. Who knows whether they can refine him, but he will be fun to watch.

    Still lots of love for Denaburg and Romero, based almost solely on their pre-pro time. If Romero was really on track, he would have pitched in league action last summer.

    1. Not necessarily. His surgery was done on August 30, 2018. Some pitchers are ready to start throwing in a game at 11 months, but not all. Given Romero’s struggles with his weight, I suspect he ballooned up again (even though one does not run or bike with an elbow) and the Nats did not want the (further) embarrassment.

  2. Also lots of love for a bunch of very young Latinos. Hope they’re right. It may be a few years before we know. They’re also still liking Antuna and Pineda, I think still somewhat clinging to older prospect rankings more than where they are right now. We’ll see. (Heck, they’re still clinging to Read!)

    They seem to like Cronin but don’t have him as highly ranked as I thought they might. That said, they do have Cronin and Cate ahead of Romero. Scratching my head at the Tim Collins comp for Cate. Now, Cate may not be a legit six feet, but Collins may not be a legit 5-7, so there’s still a fairly significant difference. This is the first I’ve heard of Cate-to-‘pen. (Also Irvin-to-‘pen.)

    Cluff hit .229 with not much power, although the Nats did think enough of him to push him straight to Hags.

    I wanted to like Dyson, as he was once highly rated, but if you’re coming from the SEC and can only strike out 4-per-9 in the NY-Penn, with a 4.37 xFIP, I’m still waiting to be impressed.

    Meanwhile, they almost completely dismissed Fuentes, didn’t have Condra-Bogan among the ranked 21, and had Troop as the very last guy mentioned out of about 50. No mention of Mario Sanchez at all, but similarly age Bourque and Braymer get small shouts.

    Oh well. As I said, there’s lot of interesting info, and also “hope” on several guys whose stats haven’t shown them as too hopeful recently. But goodness, they went overboard on long-long shots among their actual 21.

  3. Supposedly Crowe’s fastball velocity is up as high as 95 mph. That being said, I can’t shake the nagging feeling that he’s Erick Fedde. He was not at all good at Triple-A this year, and he just doesn’t strike out a lot of batters. Guess we’ll see how it plays out.

    The Fangraphs guys actually have scouting experience and get to see these prospects up close and talk to club officials and rival evaluators about them. So I trust them far beyond my own opinion to read boxscores and parse stats. But it’s interesting that they’re not high on Rutledge’s ability to command the strikezone considering he averaged two walks per start with Hagerstown. That’s not elite, but it’s entirely serviceable.

    1. Oh, it’s fascinating to read the true scouting perspective on these guys. That said, you see the obsession with size/athleticism/velocity/bat speed, sometimes at the expense of actual results (AKA, stats). Maybe you can keep “projecting” guys for their first couple of years, but at a certain age/level, results start to matter. It’s somewhat surprising to me that FanGraphs guys don’t incorporate more of the MLB equivalence stuff, although KATOH seems to have gone away.

      I do share some of the same concerns about Rutledge. For long-time system watchers, including some of us who actually saw that gigantic human known as Alex Meyer in person, it’s hard not to think of Meyer and the curse of the “repeatable delivery.” Rizzo played that one exactly right, letting Meyer rise in the prospect rankings and then cashing in for a quality regular in return.

      1. On the other hand, Rutledge is the same height (6′ 8″) as Tyler Glasnow, and an inch taller than Chad Sobotka…and Adam Wainwright…and those guys seem to be doing just fine.

  4. Interesting to see in April how many of Mario Lisson guys from 2019 GCL start in Hags 2020 now that Super Mario is Hags manager

  5. Have to thank Fangraghs for so much information, perfect timing too, but putting Denaburg and Romero where they did was just moronic.
    They’ve done NOTHING!

    ii guess we’ll find early on if they’re right about Fuentes. They seem to think he can’t pitch without whatever it was he was caught taking.

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