The Preliminary 2020 Watchlist, Part One
It’s been six years since Thanksgiving was on the 28th (the latest it can be), but I’m not waiting until after it passes to get started on our offseason routine. This is the tenth edition since we unveiled the first one in November 2010.
I cringe at the some of the early watchlists, because it’s embarrassing how much larger they were early on. Some of that was enthusiasm (a nicer way saying naïveté), and some of that was that the system was deeper since the Nats were picking early in every round. It’s difficult to parse which is which because I’m not sure if the system has thinned out as much I may have learned (or grown cynical).
That being “said,” I still believe my initial choice to not rank them from first to last, 1 to 50, largest draft bonus to lowest signing bonus, etc. was correct. We will get to that soon enough on a smaller scale (and it’ll be more apple-to-apples) when we rank the Top 10 bats and arms.
Seeing the names listed out by their categories/positions, also shows us how deep the system is(n’t).
Now before you get your undergarments unduly displaced, let me explain “DH” and “NB.”
The root of this problem is third base. As in the system doesn’t have any true 3B prospects. Drew Ward survived for years on his youth and projected usage at 3B but now he’s gone ♫ (oh, I; oh, I) ♫ and Jake Noll (A) played more at 1B in 2019 than 3B (B) turns 26 in March.
So I decided to lump K.J. Harrison, who spent a good chunk of 2019 as the… wait for it… DH for his teams, along with two GCL-level prospects who were rotated between 2B, SS, and 3B.
“NB” is Notable Bats, which I’m revealing ahead of where it will be laid out in the 2020 page because I’m breaking this into two posts for the same reason I did back in the day: to spread it out over time.
On to the the caveats…
• It’s not a depth chart. It’s ordered by the highest level played to date. The guys at the top of the column are not necessarily better than the guys at the bottom.
• It’s (mostly) based on 2019 usage. The Nats have a history of rotating IFs between 2B, 3B, and SS and are usually not very strong at 1B or in the corners of the OF.
• It’s preliminary. I’m relying on readers to write in with omissions, criticisms, and/or suggestions because my time is limited.
These are the players that caught my eye while doing the season reviews. Sadly, this will be the last one that will be aided by seeing guys play day in and day out at Potomac.
I don’t give a rat’s @ss about when a player was drafted or how much his bonus was because that’s an offshoot of “signability” and the strategy that goes along with the June draft (e.g. signing collegiate picks in Rounds 4-10). But I am (far too) aware that those two factors will give some position players more AB’s despite making errors and outs in abundance.
So let’s kick off the 2019-20 offseason, and take a look at what we got here:
| C | 1B | 2B | SS | DH | OF | NB |
| Barrera | Corredor | Freeman | Kieboom | Harrison | Banks | Noll |
| Reetz | Mendoza | Arruda | L. Garcia | V. Peña | Rhinesmith | Read |
| G. Diaz | Emiliani | Cluff | Martina | Connell | Lara | |
| Hurtado | Lara | Mendez | Meregildo | |||
| Randa | Jo. Sanchez | |||||
| Senior | Antuna | |||||
| Sanfler | ||||||
| De La Rosa |
I’m not sure about the DH list…seems odd to group together a C/1B with a couple of 2B/3B/SS types. Now, I haven’t seen Peña or Martina, and maybe they have iron gloves and limited range…but it seems like an unhelpful grouping.
I think I’d also list Kieboom as 2B, since Mike Rizzo has finally admitted he won’t play shortstop for the Nats while Trea Turner is esconced at the position. But that’s a nitpick.
There is Grissoms guy Emiliani riding up the popularity ladder. He’s a quiet rise
Cluff, too
I shook hands with Nat home jersey wearing guy in dfw this morning saying : We won. He said : Yes, sir. That sums it up.
Luke a new short list for winter : under the radar guys to sign as free agents to re – seed the bench and AAA call list …
Well, perhaps then, I should leave 3B blank. This is actually helpful as a trial balloon.
Giving up on Pineda? I realize that he really struggled, but he was also barely 19 and in a full-season league. He showed a good bit of promise in 2018.
The problem is he struggled with both the bat and the glove. If the position were thin, sure, but it isn’t.
I wrote in the comments not long ago that I really have no idea who the #4 guy is in this organization among the hitters, particularly if we’re not considering guys who are 32 years old. There’s a pretty clear #1 in Kieboom and #2 in Garcia, and I’m crossing my figures that Drew Mendoza is #3, but that’s based more on pedigree than actual pro production thus far.
Anyway, those are the only POTENTIAL MLB regulars I see on this list. We’re told that Antuna has high-end tools, and of course de la Rosa is still very young. We’ll see.
You get what you invest in, though, and they’ve used very little high draft capital in recent drafts on hitters. Kieboom seems to be panning out, and Stevenson has reached what was probably his projected ceiling, but that’s about it from recent times.
I completely agree that the Nats don’t have anyone who would qualify as a “prospect” who has regularly been playing 3B. Mendoza played 44 games at 1B and only 6 at 3B. Kieboom played 62 games at SS, 41 at 2B, and only 10 at 3B. Yet they’ve got 3B probably “covered” for the next six years, either by Kieboom or Rendon. Mendoza is going to have to make it at 1B, which means he’s really going to need to show some power.
The Nats made a conscious decision to ignore position players in their most recent drafts:
2017: one position player drafted in the first 10 rounds
2018: two position players drafted in the first 9 rounds
2019: three position players drafted in the first 7 rounds
That’s 20 pitchers drafted and 6 position players drafted with the teams top picks over the last 3 years. IMO, the Nats have a savvy front office, but that draft strategy is inane. The draft is the best tool stock up on prospects and the Nats essentially neglected all but one position over 3 years. Mind-boggling. That is why the system has a shortage of position player talent (and the pitching talent is mediocre despite going all in on arms).
Any strategy that intentionally ignores a key source of talent is flawed. Luke’s Watchlist points up the damage caused.
A few omissions (in my opinion):
Gage Canning (OF) didn’t have a great season, but displayed enough in 2018 to keep me interested (though he does look like a clone of Wiseman)
J.T. Arruda (SS/INF) he had a decent offensive season (.245/.351/.347), but I’d like to hear about his defense. If he can stick at SS (where he played 27 games), but if he’s supposed to move to 3B, then he’s less interesting
Jorge Hurtado (OF, is he mistakenly the one under catcher?) he had a basically identical 2019 to his 2018 (.277/.336/.436 in 2018 vs .272/.333/.439 in 2019) that’s very good for a 19 yo. He’s high on my watchlist.
Ivan Murzi (C ) displayed some serious power as an 18 yo in the DSL, but couldn’t hit for average (.216). If he has good defense, he could be a really interesting prospect.
Thanks, Will for both this and the pitchers. Canning isn’t so much a clone of Wiseman per se but is indeed similar in that there’s a gap between what I saw and what he was supposed to be.
I was looking at the high strikeout/low walk rates, low average, untapped power (that was a characteristic of Wiseman until this season), and positional play (both play RF) combination as similarities between the two players. But maybe all of those factors are just an indication of a player with unfulfilled potential…
And this is what will bum me out by not seeing them play as much. Now, I can tell you “Canning runs much better, has more range, and a more accurate arm.” Next year, we could be discussing Banks vs. Rhinesmith and I’ll only be able to talk about Banks. 🙁
Roismar Quintana is an international signee who got the understated endorsement of going to the Instrux with the invite only group in September. That only happens with players who have seriously separated themselves from the other youngsters.
The track record of future progress of that small subset of players is always better. And so Roismar Quintana is a name we should all start knowing more about, just as DeLaRose showed up there last year before anyone started buzzing about him.