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Changes Coming to the AFL

The Arizona Fall League may no longer be the true “finishing school” it never was.

MLB announced some changes this week which boil down to:
• It starts sooner (i.e. mid-September)
• Everyone is eligible (e.g. no AA, AAA requirement)

Previously, as non-MASN commenters already know, there had been restrictions on foreign players (one per team), service time (no more than 1 year except for Rule 5 picks), and level (only one at A+ or lower). For 2019, these have been lifted.

The party line is the changes were made “to avoid downtime at the end of their seasons and instead transition directly into the Arizona Fall League schedule.” However, it’s hard not to notice that the earlier date just happens to coincide with the end of the regular season (i.e. September).

This concerns me because one thing that has been proven over the last few years: If there’s a way to game the system it will be gamed. The coming rule change regarding the DL and options to the minors (increased from 10 to 15 for both) is an example of how front offices figured out how to shuffle pitchers back and forth versus the intent (presumably) of protecting players by shelving those with short-term injuries instead of keeping them active.

Next year, rosters will be limited to 28 in September. However this year, teams could theoretically send guys to Arizona instead of calling them up – keeping the service-time clock frozen and saving a few bucks immediately by virtue of not having to pay the MLB minimum. Or perhaps someone they’d like to have available in the MLB playoffs who needs some time to get ready or as a hedge against an injury.

The former, I’m pretty sure could happen. The latter, probably not this year… MLB has already stated it will review these changes, which, in theory, means they may put some restrictions back if the chicanery is too egregious. But it’s not hard to envision a playoff-bound team with a hard-throwing lefty that they’d only want to have face one or two batters sending him to the AFL to stay loose and face live competition (dead guys always seem to strike out looking… *rimshot!*).

One thing I do agree with is that this may help improve the league’s pitching a little bit, since starting pitchers won’t be coming off 6-8 weeks of downtime. Teams will still shelve top-tier pitchers and guys with innings caps, but you may see some second-tier, non-Rule-5 guys getting asked to throw a few more innings.

What this will do to instrux, which still take place in roughly the same timeframe, is not clear. That will probably vary according to the organization. But I tend to doubt the idea of very young guys going the AFL instead.

14 Commments

  1. When will the Arizona Fall League end if it starts in Mid-September? What will that do to the young pitchers?

    1. Oct. 27 — versus ~Nov. 16

      I’m sure we’ll still see teams send about-to-be-Rule 5 guys and rehabs but you may also see a guy who has no innings issues get sent. I doubt we’ll see very young pitchers and hardly any collegiate pitchers unless they come from a small conference.

  2. The new CBA really, really needs to address the service time-clock issue, which has been a problem for years. It’s not just the dance that the Nats have done with Stras and Harper, and the multi-year insanity with Trea (which they screwed up by one game); the Cubs did it with Kris Bryant, and there are plenty of other examples. I know there are millions of dollars at stake for the players due to whenever arbitration can start. But it all shouldn’t be so tricky. The players are losing out on money, while the teams are losing out on the services of those players.

    1. My proposed solution is simple–once a guy has appeared in at least one game in 7 different seasons, he becomes a FA at the end of the 7th season. That way it would be to a team’s advantage to place a blue chipper on the OD roster while in practice not affecting the total number of years they are under team control since every team manipulates the service clock to get 7 total years from them anyway.

      1. I’m starting to wonder if it might be better to use something they can’t change: like the player’s DOB.

        “Smiley” Gonzalez jokes in 3… 2… 1…

      2. Karl, your proposal makes a lot of sense. I’d tweak it in a couple of ways. First, I would make the time frame only six seasons, with the last three as arb years, so there’s no silly and arcane Super Two stuff about a additional arb year. Seven years is just too long for a team to have control. If the players had any real leverage, they might even be able to negotiate the control down to five years, particularly if they’d agree to arb only in the last two of those five years. (In such world, you’d see more extensions and more free agency at ages that make more sense, instead of big contracts that mostly pay for players’ declines in their 30s.)

        Second, I wouldn’t start the clock on the first year if a player appears in less than 15 games, so there’s still the opportunity for the Sept. cup of coffee.

  3. I think 28 guys on the Sept. roster is really too tight, but I also agree that the number of pitchers active should be constrained so we don’t get Dave Roberted to death. (Don’t know whether the three-batter rule is going to fly.)

    I also think Sept. shouldn’t count on “clock” time, as that deal is keeping most teams from giving its top prospects MLB experience. I don’t want to screw the players out of potential arb money, but there needs to be some sensible middle ground.

  4. I just returned from a week at spring training where I spent time at both the major and minor league fields. They are not playing as many games in the minors and as a result the hitters are not getting the at bats they need and the pitchers are not getting the innings they need. After years of watching practice in the morning and a game at 1:00 pm, those days are over for now.

    Also, the players assigned to Fresno will be breaking camp earlier than HBG and the others so they can get settled in their new surroundings. There are still numerous cuts to be made so the rosters are still very fluid.

    1. I just returned from a week at spring training where I spent time at both the major and minor league fields. They are not playing as many games in the minors and as a result the hitters are not getting the at bats they need and the pitchers are not getting the innings they need. After years of watching practice in the morning and a game at 1:00 pm, those days are over for now.

      Also, the players assigned to Fresno will be breaking camp earlier than HBG and the others so they can get settled in their new surroundings. There are still numerous cuts to be made so the rosters are still very fluid.

    2. Appreciate the dispatch from WPB… still haven’t been able to make it down to FL in March for spring training (work, rug capybaras). I do know that minor-league camp started late just last week, but I see your point: if guys are leaving early, they’re playing less.

      1. First, I apologize for posting the same thing 3 times. I was having laptop issues. Second, you are correct that camp started later. Guys were saying how much different it was this year.

  5. I just returned from a week at spring training where I spent time at both the major and minor league fields. They are not playing as many games in the minors and as a result the hitters are not getting the at bats they need and the pitchers are not getting the innings they need. After years of watching practice in the morning and a game at 1:00 pm, those days are over for now.

    Also, the players assigned to Fresno will be breaking camp earlier than HBG and the others so they can get settled in their new surroundings. There are still numerous cuts to be made so the rosters are still very fluid.

  6. Pedro Severino is officially gone.
    Man, it was so much fun watching him play defense coming up. Too bad the hit tool never developed.

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