MLB Pipeline Releases its 2019 Top 30 for Washington
Now that you’ve gotten over the shock of the Nationals not being ranked a Top 10 farm system, let’s take a look at MLB Pipeline’s 2019 Top 30 for Washington.
In its chase for clicks, MLB continually updates the Top 30, so if you’re inclined to look at the 2018 list, understand that it’s been updated several times since last February (which is not a bad thing because they keep track of when players exceed their rookie limits).
Like a year ago, MLB’s Top 6 is the same as BA’s. While the boys in Durham still think of Seth Romero as a Top 10 talent (even if he might not pitch in the regular season), MLB did not (#15). Other dramatic differences:
• Israel Pineda #8 (MLB) vs. #15 (BA)
• Raudy Read #20 (MLB) vs. #13 (BA)
• Malvin Peña #14 (MLB) vs. #28 (BA)
• Jake Irvin #17 (MLB) vs. #10 (BA)
Most noticeable, of course, is Jeremy De La Rosa – one of six IFAs the Nationals signed for $300K (the max Washington was allowed in 2018). MLB ranked him at #12, while BA did not include him at all.
As noted in the comments, the differences in evaluations are stark. I could extend this exercise to others (e.g. Fangraphs, Prospect Digest) but I think the essential point has been made: Most folks can agree on the first tier, but after that, there’s dissent.
I will say, however, that I don’t buy MLB’s excuse offered for Luis Reyes’s fall from grace (“The 24-year-old landed on the injured list twice in his first Double-A campaign and pitched with diminished stuff when healthy“). Why the italics? As I wrote in this space a year ago, (“Reyes didn’t have the best stuff on his team, never mind the rest of the righthanders in the system… aside from one strong outing against the second-worst offense in the league, he was decidedly mediocre.”)
Or put another way, I informed you thusly.
As always, feel free to discuss in the comments…
As I mentioned on the earlier thread — the one that I’m scratching my head over is Sterling Sharp, whom the good folks at BA as well as MLB Pipeline really like but whom D.C.-based Adam McInturff doesn’t think much of (ranked most recently outside his top 30 for the Nats). This will be a big year for him. Best case, maybe he’s Joe Ross c.2015? (Not given a camp invite, but ended up in the rotation by midseason.) Worst case, he’s org filler like McInturff thinks. The funny thing is the reports on his FB/SL combo are so wildly divergent. McInturff has him sitting in the 80s with numero uno and not getting much action to speak of on his secondaries; BA and Mayo/Callis have him living low 90s with heavy sink, plus a nasty breaker.
Draft 20 each year to find 2.
Now we can begin to see how some of the assets @ F -troOP get pushed down by 40 man roster assets thus the Senate on City Isle gets assets pushed down.
Case in point example : does LuCroy get an OF mix of : Jones, Banks , Wiseman , Goeddel, Schroeder and Norfork?? Time will tell
My best guess is a number of guys who aren’t really considered top prospects but the Nats will want to keep close end up in Harrisburg and some of the guys the Nats want to get seasoning against high-level competition go to Fresno.
It would seem kind of mean to send Spencer Kieboom down to AA ball after he had a perfectly adequate year as a major league backup catcher, but fact of the matter is if Yan Gomes or Kurt Suzuki go on the injured list, or even if they’re day to day, the Nats are going to need another catcher in D.C. right away, and I’m sure they’d rather have Kieboom than Raudy Read, who has a lot less major league experience, is coming off a rough year, and hasn’t proven he can handle the finer points of receiving. So they give Read the AAA assignment and tell him, “Get better, because this year is a big one for your development as a potential everyday catcher,” and they give Kieboom the ticket down to AA and tell him, “Never mind the classification, we want you close by because we’re gonna need you.” That’s my guess, anyway.
If they do that, it’ll be interesting to see how they configure some of the less obvious depth guys vs. prospects. Like, where do you put Adrian Sanchez, and where do you put Carter Kieboom? Where do you put James Bourque, and where do you put Ben Braymer? That sort of thing.
Maybe Spencer would accept a posting @ Burg toplay with brother , Carter
Very interesting how the chips fall where they may @ Fresno and Burg
Does Carter play SS @ Burg until Luis Garcia promoted or does brass go with Masters and Meijia on the roster ??
Masters and Mejia are org filler. Put them wherever you’re not putting a prospect, basically. And if they end up as part-time players, well, that’s their job.
Personally, I don’t get too exercised about where guys who don’t have much of a shot at the majors are going to play. Scialabba, Menhart et al. configure the teams around the 40-man guys and prospects. Masters is a 26-year-old A-baller who has never hit .250, and Mejia is a defensively limited 25-year-old who has spent the past three seasons not doing much with the bat at Potomac.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Mejia in Harrisburg this season. But neither he nor Masters are really prospects at this point, and the fact of the matter is, those kind of players are used to round out the roster so that players with a chance of adding value at the major league level have a team with which to play.
BP and Luke not as big on Luis G. as the others. BP really hated the unexpected, sudden drop from plus-plus speed. Sickels says watch out for this kid he’s a “sleeper”. Which Luis G. will appear this season?
Agree completely on Spencer Kieboom. Last year he was a classic high quality backup catcher — terrific defensively and ‘meh’ with the bat. He HAS to be 1st man up in case of injury.
In other news, glad to see knucklehead out of the top 10, that was always an indictment of the system.
São M. Filler is filler as farmers might say. Would be interesting to see Meijia hit in City Isle .
Potomac infield : Lara, Antuna , Lora , Freeman , Scudder , Williams ?? Meregildo & Franco too?
We are all snowed in
Romero was always more of an indictment of the trying to get something for nothing approach in drafting. Giolito and Fedde also fall into this category, and the jury will be out on Denaburg until he actually pitches and proves to be healthy.
The Nats are lucky that their Caribbean/Latin America scouting has been so good, because other than 2016 their drafts since 2012 have been awful. It’s possible they will go into the season with zero players drafted after 2011 on the opening day roster. Only Koda Glover has a chance to buck that trend.
@F-troOP might be the place to stock pile the top pitchers … weather should be better for the critical arms in early spring. Ex catchers running both F-TroOP and city isle. Where do you think Davidson and Keller land? They seem to be less athletic professional hitter types. Abreu, Noll, and Ward? F-TroOP? Or City Isle again? Boggetto, Corredor with the ol’ Cannons? Cole Freeman on City Isle after a brief stop with the P-Nats? Does Meregildo start out with the P-Nats? Armand Upshaw who strikes out a lot but walks some … and flies in CF?
Sharp definitely needs to be ranked, probably in any top 20, although folks could have significantly differing opinions on his ceiling. Right now, I lean toward comps more along the lines of Simms and Mapes, guys who don’t K a lot of batters but who figured out how to get outs across several levels of the minors. In fact, Sharp’s age-23 season looks a lot like Simms’s. The big thing people have been waiting on with Sharp is for him to fill out, but he’s turning 24 in a few months, so that’s sort of now or never. Maybe he shows up in West Palm with 20 extra pounds of muscle.
Overall, 2019 is going to be a big shaking-out year with the Nats’ system, particularly among the pitchers drafted over the last two years. Let’s hope two or three emerge as legit top-10 guys. Right now, a list that has Cate at #6 is based on some magical thinking considering the pro numbers he has actually posted thus far.
The write-up on De La Rosa is intriguing. Robles and Soto both set pretty high bars with their GCL debuts, so we’ll see if the new guy is a worthy heir.
Ling Louie’s Asian joint in DFW cranks the walk to the plate music for Jeremy DeLa Rosa. Jeremy … Pearl Jam.
Luke. Which DeLaRosa plotted higher in April : Jeremy or Christopher ??
At age 17 if De la Rosa actually makes it to Hags then many will undoubtedly take notice. If he manages to get promoted to Potomac where Luke is? Well, you might be seeing another phenom left-handed hitting outfielder from the Dominican. But, nothing I’ve seen seems to predict that.
The guys on baseball prospectus, like Luke, actually watch them play … apparently like Luke, their view is one from the Carolina League. Their take seems mostly honest, with less rah-rah, except the added blurb from the fantasy guy. They and Sickels seem to get closest.
I’d add Joseph Werner from Prospect Digest as one to pay attention to — he’s a lot like Sickels and appears to go to a fair amount of games too.
I’m not looking forward to when it will be next to impossible to go to midweek games, nor am I looking forward to a summer of crowing (no, not Crowe-ing) about the move to Fredericksburg.