Daniel Johnson, PTBNL part of Nats-Indians Trade
It’s another reminder that the days of us getting excited by news of a trade (“ooh – someone new”) have shifted (“ugh – who’d we lose?”) as Daniel Johnson, Jefry Rodriguez, and the eponymous player to be named later were traded to Cleveland for catcher Yan Gomes.
Johnson, who had a meteoric rise through the Washington system last summer after a mediocre debut in 2016, had been the top-rated outfielder not named Victor Robles. While he spent all of 2018 in AA, his season was interrupted by hamate-bone surgery that subsequently (and usually) sapped his power (.505 SLG in ’17 vs. .412 in ’18) though he compensated with his legs by stealing 22 bases and smacking 7 triples — matching his 2017 thievery in 41 fewer games while getting caught just four times.
Johnson was acquired despite a horrific showing in the AFL (.438 OPS) for the second straight fall and mixed reviews from the scouts (see Adam McInturff vs. Bernie Pleskoff), though Baseball America seemed to have nice things to say [insert note about BA’s reputation for parroting team officials here].
Rodriguez, who graduated from prospect status this past summer, was also included in the deal. Last summer was the first one in which he threw more than 60 innings at a given level and had an ERA less than 4.00. His inclusion puts more pressure on the big club’s starting rotation that was already reminiscent of the ’48 Braves (“Spahn and Sain and pray for rain”) with Joe Ross coming off TJ surgery, Erick Fedde barely avoiding it (thus far), and Tanner Roark still not recovered from the 2017 WBC.
The deal should finally put to rest the pining for J.T. Realmuto that seems to have dogged the Nats since parting ways with Wilson Ramos (and thankfully, the Allen-esque idea of bringing Ramos back) and solidifies a position that has been an offensive black hole the past two seasons. With the emergence of several catchers in the lower levels, the Nats are also in the enviable position of being able to trade one of the three remaining catchers on the 40-man roster (Raudy Read, Spencer Kieboom, or Pedro Severino) while still having two viable backups at AAA or AA – even if the return may be minimal.
Seems like the team feels set in the OF for the foreseeable future with Soto and Robles under control until 2050, and some combination of Eaton, Taylor, Stevenson and take your pick of 4th/5th OFers available on the market to round things out. I liked Johnson, and would have loves to see how he would have developed in our system… but whatevs.
The arm on Rodriguez is pretty electric. If he puts it together, he should be fun to watch. Probably in the pen.
The PoY curse strikes again! Johnson was PoY in 2017 I believe. Best wishes to him in his new organization.
It’s a good move for the Nats, but also a good reminder that if you can find value in the 5th round of the draft, the value can multiply two or three years down the road.
I thought Johnson could eventually have a higher ceiling than Stevenson, but that ceiling may still looking something like den Dekker, basically AAAA. For Johnson to be more, he’ll have to find that power again.
I was never particularly a Rodriguez fan, even in the minors. Even last season, I thought he got too many MLB innings over more polished guys like McGowin and Voth. Frankly, his vaunted fastball got hit hard at the MLB level (5.97 FIP), and it didn’t produce many K’s (6.75 K/9).
This is incredible news, in part because it makes trading Robles now so much less likely. I am also very excited for some defense and offense at the catcher position.
Scuttlebutt sure sounds like the Nats were willing to do Robles for Realmuto straight up last offseason, but the Fish got greedy. Of course the Nats were also left with a black hole at catcher.
Losing Rodriguez means the Nats are under even pressure to improve the rotation. Using the Harper savings to sign Corbin and at least one other starter and a top notch LH reliever makes so much sense that it probably means it won’t happen.
Outfield depth just shrunk left-handed hitter wise down to left fielders Yadiel Hernandez and Austin Davidson along with OF Andrew Stevenson and Telmito Augustin. It’s a real shame Davidson can’t handle 2nd base or that Luis Garcia isn’t really ready. Marmelejos and Ward left-handed bench bats? But it sure seems like the Cuban might get first dibs?
I am OK with this trade, and even happy. A few points:
I am higher on Johnson than many. However, one has to trade when player value peaks. This was a tipping point of whether Johnson would regain value next year as a legitimate power threat or not. To me, this is the most ambiguous outcome. His being dealt may reflect that Bryce Harper is coming back.
And with Soto and Robles, and controllable Eaton and Taylor available, there would be no place for Johnson on the depth chart. And there are MANY talented free agent outfielders on the market who are priced waaaay less than Harper, if the Nationals want more than what they already have. Right now they can wait things out. I am a lot less concerned about inventory. But then, I have always been far higher on Yadiel Hernandez than others here.
The Nationals held onto Goodwin too long, held onto Giolito for too long, and may have held onto Taylor too long. I think Johnson will regain his power, and be that toolsy player, but the Nationals must be betting that his bat will not translate at the ML level into the IMPACT bat for a starting OF. A risk. Because he’s got something there.
As for Jefry Rodriguez, he has had flashes, but we saw him because of a dearth of other options as much as we did for his ML readiness. He could turn into a dominant relief pitcher, but that was not going to happen here. And definitely, his value may have peaked and he had a long road down. I could not see him leaping the others on the depth chart.
The player to be named later in the ill-fated Herrera trade is apparently the best find of all. So I hope that IF the Nats trade a lower minor league arm, that it is someone with mileage under his belt rather than a lottery ticket who can yet be coached up.
As for Gomes, he’s been a catcher on a great pitching staff and championship team who has shown the capacity for two way excellence. That quality is valued enough that the Dodgers, who have outstanding player judgment, were trying to get him. So he is a good player to bet on, and at a good salary to take on.
The intangible big win for the Nationals here is that they have solved their catching situation and more without sacrificing a prospect haul in a reactionary deal (eg Eaton). We still have Robles, Kieboom, Soto, and Garcia!
Moreover, the Nationals did so without investing in injury risk and variable defense (Wilson) or exorbitant financial commitment (Grandal). When you have Read (who I still think will improve and emerge), Kieboom (whom I have always liked), and Pineda (who has a future, if a few years away), the trade sets up well for the future.
So I’m pleased. It looks like Rizzo is acting like he has a plan and is being proactive. That has always been Rizzo at his best. Rizzo at his worst is the reactive Rizzo. I have to admit, the movement on the team, in spite of Bryce Harper’s quandary, is more aggressive than in the past and the 2019 Nats will be better for it.
Of course, some folks one has to wait on. The Nats waited on Scherzer, and waited on Daniel Murphy (yeah, I know he was billed as plan C). I’m a Keuchel guy, not a Corbin guy. But mostly, I want them to get Charlie Morton. Morton AND Keuchel would leave me thrilled.
So waiting on Bryce, especially if they can sign Rendon (I think they will), is something we can all stomach.
One never knows how these prospect for players deals turn out. Fister was lauded – and then his career tanked, quickly, while Robbie Ray emerged. On the other hand, the Nationals gave up a lot for Gio Gonzalez and yet, it was worth what they got from him.