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Offseason Update: Oct. 6, 2018

I know it’s been quiet ’round here, but the lights are still on. We’re just waiting for something to happen.

AFL TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY
After announcing the roster with all the fanfare of free shuttle, the Nats octet of minor-leaguers begin their six-week sojourn in the Phoenix suburbs with an afternoon game in Surprise. While we can be assured of Carter Kieboom playing often, the rest of the crew is a little harder to predict (aside from Tres Barrera, who, as one of four catchers will probably play once or twice a week, max). My guess is that Luis Reyes will be one of the starting pitchers, continuing his late-season rehab, while the three southpaws work in relief with Ben Braymer getting the most work and Taylor Guilbeau getting the least.

LUIS GARCIA NAMED TO ANOTHER BA TOP 20 LIST
As predicted last week, Baseball America double-dipped again and named Luis Garcia to another Top 20 List, making the 18-y.o. SS its #2 pick for its Sally League Top 20. There was also this mention in the Q&A:

Garcia is one of the more advanced young hitters in low Class A. He has a little bit of a thicker lower-half, so picture a well-built second baseman as far as a body comp more than a quick-twitch shortstop.

TJ FOR YASEL ANTUNA?
In the Sally League Top 20 Chat with J.J. Cooper, there was this bombshell on Yasel Antuna:

Injuries ruined his season. He’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, but even before the surgery it seemed to affect him both in the field and at the plate. There is legitimate hitting ability buried in there, but he wasn’t as aggressive at the plate or defensively this year. It does make sense for him to return to Hagerstown, but there is some confidence than he is better than what he looked like in 2018. He has the tools to be an everyday MLB regular, but he has a lot of work to do physically and mentally to get there.

I searched high and low but couldn’t find any corroborating information, which is difficult because as far as I can tell Antuna is just the second position player (Matt Skole) to have had the surgery, so it’s extremely hard to parse from the parade of pitchers. Given that there was no mention in either the 2018 of 2017 books, the logical deduction is that he had the surgery in August as his last game was on July 19.

TRANSACTION STUFF
Still pretty light: Carlos Torres, Moises Sierra, and Tommy Milone all elected free agency.

THE AUBURN DOUBLEDAYS
For the first time since 2012, the Doubledays saw postseason action as the wildcard. Thanks to a quirk in scheduling, it was also the first time they faced the Renegades in 2018 was in the NYPL Playoffs and Hudson Valley easily dispatched Auburn 2-0 in the best-of-three semifinals.

Like the 2017 edition, Auburn could hit: 4.6 R/G was third-best in the circuit, but, thanks to a trio teenagers (Israel Pineda, Jose Sanchez, Ricardo Mendez), the team’s hitters were only a shade older than the league average (21.0 vs. 20.9) in age. The real improvement from 2017 to 2018 was in pitching and defense. The former allowed 4.30 R/G (4.36 R/G Lg. Avg.) and the latter was second-best in terms of FA (.975 vs. .970).

Just two of the pitchers surpassed 50IP – Francys Peguero and Angel Guillen. I suspect most eyes will be on this trio of portsiders: Tim Cate, Aaron Fletcher, and Carlson Teel. All of three spent time at multiple levels, with Cate making it up to Low-A for two good starts and two not-so-good starts.

Without further ado, the Top 5’s

TOP 5 BATS TOP 5 ARMS
1. Pablo O’Connor, LF
.266 GPA, 5HR, .460 SLG%		 1. Aaron Fletcher, LHP
2.48/1.79/1.14, 9.93 K/9IP, 0.93 BB/9
2. Justin Connell, RF
.261 GPA, .420 OBP		 2. Angel Guillen, RHP
2.84/3.50/1.12, 11WP in 57IP
3. Cody Wilson, CF
.257 GPA, 15 of 50 hits for XBH		 3. Gilberto Chu, LHP
3.66/2.70/1.22, 1.97 BB/9IP
4. Jacob Rhinesmith, LF-RF
.256 GPA, 27BB in 63G		 4. Francys Peguero, RHP
2.93/4.27/1.00, 6.12 K/9IP
5. Israel Pineda, C
.250 GPA, 41% CS		 5. Carson Teel, LHP
2.20/3.03/1.13, 1.65 BB/9

You may have noticed that I did not put an “S” or an “R” with the pitchers. This is because many of them started and relieved, which is something I’m quite cool with because I don’t believe in “roles” — a pitcher’s job is to throw strikes, after all.

An honorable mention goes to Niomar Gomez, who was the #5 pitcher in the GCL and put up much better numbers in the NYPL, as his FIP indicated he would. Likewise for Gage Canning, who was dominant in a short stint (.316 GPA over 14G) in the NYPL but not in the Sally Lg., though he was close to league-average (.235 vs. .237) which is not too shabby for a 21-y.o. in his first pro season.

Those interested in seeing the full team’s stats can find them here.

15 Commments

  1. The TJ for Altuna makes the advancement of Marincasa and Daily more pronounced in the low A infield rotation.

  2. Good point on pitchers roles. Tampa Bay had a more successful season than the Nats and they made a lot of hay over using openers.

    1. I had a piece for TalkNats a week or two ago looking at how the Nats could emulate that strategy. We sure had a lot of guys this season who looked great for three to five innings before going supernova, and a few of the Nats’ best pitching performances of the entire season (Grace vs. Red Sox, Miller vs. Braves, J-Rod vs. Braves…twice) came in long relief.

      I don’t know if what’s happening at the lower levels is explicitly to lay the groundwork for this strategy, but I agree I like to see it. These pitchers need to be comfortable with doing whatever they are asked to do on the mound.

  3. I wonder how much we can expect from Antuna in 2019 as he recovers from his surgery. I know position players don’t need as much time as pitchers, but full recovery may not occur until 2020. I know Ohtani had TJ and expects to be able to bat as a DH in 2019, but I don’t see that as an option for Antuna.

    1. Thank goodness brass added college experienced guys in Daily and Marincanz to come up behind Sanchez , Altuna and Garcia. Even Caufeld , too

    2. Why would DHing not be an option for Antuna? Would think that the Nats would want to keep him engaged as a offensive player and a teammate during the season. Every recover is different, but would think he would be able to play in the field by July and August.

      1. Antuna would be DHing almost every day. If that what the Nats want, fine. But, it would deny opportunities for the manager to rest guys and keep their bats in the lineup. It might appear to some of the other players as special treatment for Antuna. I agree that, when he returns, Antuna likely will start as the DH.

        1. There’s also the matter of his being a switch-hitter. The knee-jerk response is that he gives that up, but I doubt it’s that simple. Also, while we keep reading that it’s possible for a player to bat while recovering (i.e. Ohtani), I have yet to find an example of a player who *actually* did just that. Finally, while we’re assuming it’s his throwing arm, we don’t *know* that for a fact.

          Given the Nats’ propensity to keep injuries under wraps–note that in Zuckerman’s article yesterday about Zimmerman, he glossed over that Ryan Zimmerman’s “unique” spring training was an effort to mask that he was, in fact, hurt–I have a hard time seeing them allow Antuna to be scouted while he recovers.

          1. All I can say is yeah, huh? Dead on about the injuries and reporting them. Especially when it comes to Zim. Well next season is pay the piper time for him as its his contract year. Either he stays healthy and performs? Or he ends up taking the 10 million 5 year personal services part of his contract in retirement.

  4. Byron Kerr on MASN has an interesting article today (10/8) on Denaburg and on how the Nats prepare their HS draftees.

    1. Who wants to play in Fresno? Of course, I might look on them if they look interesting but my gut tells me they will be basement dwellers versus the first place finish they produced as a part of the Houston system. I think I’d rather go to the Strawberry music festival if the Grizzlies are populated by also-rans and could-have-beens that Rizzo manages to sign to keep up his end of the bargain.

  6. These are some really great posts. You ought to be doing this for MASN. Adding in the bulldog and friends photos. Got three snoring right behind me as I type. What a cacophony … LOL.

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