Tuesday’s News & Notes

31 Commments

1. Totally agree on the trade. The Nats got probably the best reliever available and gave up two guys who were among the most overrated in the system (and cleared a 40-man slot with Gutierrez’s departure).

   I’ve probably jumped up and down here more than most about Gutierrez not generating enough power to play a corner position. Gutierrez’s K numbers have also jumped over the last couple of years. Yes, he looks great in a uniform. When you walk into to the stadium and look around, he’s the first number you look up. But he’s in his eighth pro season and has 12 career homers, just one more than the light-hitting Blake Perkins.

   I never understood the Perkins pick (in the same draft with Stevenson, when he profiled similarly) or the continuing insistence that Perkins switch-hit. Perkins is currently “slugging” .290. He looked very stalled at Potomac. Guys like Robles, Soto, and Johnson had flown past him in the system.

   In short, the Nats did very well to get a high-profile player for these two, particularly considering the much steeper prices they’ve paid in previous seasons for bullpen help. (And if Morel helps the Royals win the 2030 World Series, good for him.)

   1. Will chime in to say this is not a bad trade. Seemingly, it’s a very good one for the Nationals.

      However, I will also chime in to say that I still share the sentiment I posted yesterday about Rizzo for the 5th or 6th straight year not acquiring adequate depth in the bullpen. He’s created a vicious cycle where he trades away his upper-level minor league pitching depth to plug holes with short term rentals at the big league level, only to perpetually find himself short on solutions the following season, when those rentals depart.

      Maybe he’s finally got the message, primarily trading batters. But he needs to deliberately overhaul the bullpen again this winter, with Doolittle, Madson, Kelly, Collins (possibly Kintzler) and now Herrera all hitting free agency.

      I won’t be surprised at all to be having this exact same conversation next year, as we acquire whoever the next reliever is scheduled to hit free agency in 2020, because we didn’t adequately replace the above 5-6 names.

      1. Doolittle is under control via team options for a few more years. Your bigger point isn’t wrong, but that fact was.

         Last year’s trade with OAK, while bringing back good players, was very costly in terms of talent that we gave up.

         1. The simple point is this – Doolittle and Madson were difference makers last year, and Doolittle certainly this year. No one traded to the A’s has yet contributed at the ML level. A prospect is only that until he is actually producing in the majors.

            1. The Nats would have won their division with or without Doolittle and Madson (we were 11.5 games up already when we got them). Then their presence didn’t make a lick of difference in the postseason.

               Now you can make a case for them being difference makers this season since we don’t have the benefit of hindsight, but last year we do, and they were inconsequential to the outcome of the season.

               Also, Treinen has been as good as, if not better than Doolittle this season. Luzardo is currently a top 50 prospect and rising, and could be in the big leagues later this season (his numbers in AA are a hell of a lot better than any SP we currently have in Harrisburg or Syracuse).

               Either way, this just perfectly illustrates my point that Rizzo keeps trading away the players that are meant to replace these stop gap players like Madson/Kintzler (Treinen) and Edwin Jackson/Hellickson (Luzardo).

               We too often use our farm system (specifically pitchers) as a short-term solution to keep the team highly competitive (by trading away our long-term options), and then fail to adequately strengthen it through free agency. Instead, we should use free agency as a short-term solution (stock up on 1-2 year RP deals) to allow the farm to provide long-term solutions. We’ve taken this approach remarkably well with batters. But when it comes to pitching, there’s a disconnect and every player is fungible, and we’ve gotten stuck in a self-defeating spiral. Remind me in a year when we’re having this same argument all over again.

            2. Treinen is closing for the A’s, who don’t really have any high-leverage situations. Do you REALLY want him closing for the Nats in the playoffs or a pennant race?

               My general take when guys are traded is that we don’t need them to fail for the trade to be a success. We just need the guys we got in return to perform. I have no qualms whatsoever with Doolittle (better than ever expected) or Madson (solid until overuse started catching up with him recently). Are there other trades that haven’t worked out? Of course. But it is what it is. And as far as I’m concerned, the Nats gave up nothing of future major-league consequence to get Herrera, which makes it particularly good.

            3. It’s worth reminding folks that Treinen was an unheralded, old-for-the-level (High-A) starter when the Nats got A.J. Cole back, so some folks may not lament his loss since he was “house money.”

            4. This is a recording from this winter. Kelvin G reminded me of Estarlin Martinez who was a NYPenn League All Star with not much lift and launch ( right , Kevin Long ?) but never made
               Hagerstown .
               Perhaps putting the cart before the horse , but very ironic that Davey Martinez was hired to be the young blood in the dugout with new staff on the edge of Harper34 walk winter years after he played for Buck Rodgers who Murray Cook brought in in the exhaust fumes of Hawk Dawson walking to a paycheck he told the Cubs to fill in. Weird if Harper goes to Cubs ego might have to cut loose the ex- Brave in RF to balance the books .

         2. Brain fart, Treinen. Trade still was a difference maker for Nats, as Treinen had washed up here.

            BTW, Treinen makes for nice flip now for A’s as buyers market approaches.

            The fate of this deal is yet to be sealed, and will be in the outcome of the next three seasons and Neuse’s and Luzardo’s eventual peak. It’s premature, but right now the deal is defensible if helpful for both teams.

            1. Indeed

         3. Jury is still out on that … well, except for Trienen who has turned into a decent closer in a less stressful environment … well kind of like Syracuse? I remember fans clamoring to trade Soto for a closer … and any other top prospect.

            Looking at Fedde, who I guess was the keeper for the Nats FO, it looks like he’ll be steady maybe develop into a decent #3 but beyond that? I don’t see anything good about the Nat’s 2/5 of the Chisox rotation. Sure looks to me like Rizzo was smart for re-upping Strasburg and signing Scherzer for the front of the rotation. Now, he just needs to bolster it … but unless you’re the Braves with at least 9 top prospects to try-out in their MLB rotation its unlikely you’re going to do better with prospects as far as starting pitching and apparently relievers are concerned.

            Now, position players are another story but so far outside of the more recent Dominican prospects signed to multi-million dollar deals and the two first rounders in Stras and Rendon I’m really not seeing a lot of top prospect types rising up to take their spot? MAT looks to me like Danny Espinosa redux … great defense and inconsistent to terrible offense. And you folks crucified Espinosa but he was the better defender in spite of the struggles with the bat, and the injuries incurred? I do believe he could play any position on the field at a pretty high level outside of pitcher and catcher with very little ramp up time. Goodwin was a first rounder, ’nuff said. Who else ya got? Who? I don’t see it and I think the Nats have gotten more from resurrecting supposed AAAA players like Michael Morse … its why the deal for Eaton was and still is a great deal … were it not for the injuries he probably would be consistently All Star caliber in the Nat’s outfield.

            So, tell me who they’ve given up who was that great? Honestly Marco Estrada is right up there given the number of years he’s put as a decent #3 – #5 starter?

            1. Meant to say Harper and Rendon, not Stras and Rendon.

            2. I guess I am learning to be as cynical as Luke about most minor league prospects … I still hold out hope for Yadiel Hernandez … but his bat has cooled much like Harper’s has and at the wrong time …

            3. Marco Estrada to some fans is like the guy who can’t get over the average looking waitress @ Dennys
               Nelson Tejada seems really interesting with lL/R. Size 6’2
               Meanwhile Danny Hernandez
               Learns utility play under Sandy Martinez in DSL

         4. I agree with that @Will because with the way our starter situation is and how Jesus Luzardo has performed and the Nats willingness to move prospects up quickly, he would be getting a big league look and I think hes a stud.

            I’m okay with almost every prospect the Nats have dealt recently especially this recent trade. Only two I wish we coulda kept are Luzardo and Dane Dunning. And I still feel like we coulda kept Dunning. He seemed like a throw in.

            1. Modern moneyball. The fifth year option cost a player in talks with Chisox ??

      2. Doolittle is under contract for one more year, and there’s a team option for 2020 that becomes a mutual option if he finishes 100 games across ’18 and ’19 (currently 26 finished thus far in ’18). He was not a short-term rental, which is why he and Madson cost so much in terms of prospects.

         Don’t want to re-litigate all of this, but it’s not like the Nats haven’t tried to come up with relievers, including investing a #10 overall draft pick in Storen. They’ve just had a hard time developing them in-house, perhaps in part because they try to keep everyone as a starter for so long.

2. A few lessons from the trade:

   1) Depth is huge. For those who worry about Rizzo depleting the farm system, those concerns are less operative when the trade derives from replaceable depth. The outfield depth among leadoff types is particularly good. And Agustin, a fast riser, is now coming back. Morel is a lottery ticket. Gutierrez is arguably from the least deep position, but the Nats have depth in Kieboom and less so, Ward. Don’t forget Noll, either, although he and Sagdal, who is way overdue for promotion, now have a clearer pathway to the Harrisburg infield.

   2) Herrera is a top of the line piece, on the order of Melancon but more flexible. He’s got WS pedigree for a team that has has BP disappointments in the playoffs. If there’s ever a rental one does, a transcendent player is it. They paid less than the Cubs paid for Chapman.

   3) Again the AFL as a trade showcase comes into the fore. Gutierrez had an unworldly week there, and has shown his power to be coming around. The Royals think he may even make it at SS. Good for them if so. I still think he has a chance to make it as a starting player.

   4) I love that Rizzo jumped the market. He’s done that before, and there are catchers to be had that he can and should seize. No rentals please and no Wilson for me; if JT is too high a price, Salvador Perez is a big upgrade with an Adam Eaton contract having a down year for a team that loves the Nats system. And there are others, but I’d want an offense-defense talent and controllable until one of the catchers down below takes off. They can send Read in the return, and based off his 2017, there will be an appetite.

   5) The volume strategy of the Latin signees is again paying off. Morel is a signee from the 2016 haul that the Nats brought in under penalty. The returns are getting better and better, and we’ll truly appreciate the scouting more a few years from now, if the Soto coup has not already proven the point. As far as I am concerned, the IFA 5 from 2016 are THE jewel of the current system, five players who, in part or all, may be major leaguers and carrying others along with them as an example for the team’s scouting Standard.

   1. While your greater point holds, Morel was signed last summer, not 2016.

      http://www.masnsports.com/masn-news-information/2017/07/nationals-agree-to-terms-with-27-international-free-agents.html

      1. Sorry, typo. 17 was under penalty, because 16 was a lot of coin going around.

         And now, looking at that list, some interesting names emerging with the DSL crew.

         And 2016 is till giving gifts. We’re going to be talking about Pedro Gonzalez here pretty soon.

         1. You beat me to Pedro G. 9 Ks in 6 IPs.
            What the Nats could use on their bench with Kendrick lost , Difo being asked to mature in a nano second reaching All Star consistency is Geoff Blum when he was in his prime .

   2. 6) Rizzo has an under appreciated track record for sell high and sell by (date). There are some that get away, like Robbie Ray and Rivero, but seeing Giolito and others like Karns and Peacock make me wonder about Gutierrez (sell high) and Perkins (sell by). That’s got to factor into other upgrade decisions coming.

      1. Robbie Ray, Vazquez/Rivero (another Dominican I think?), Marco Estrada, and Blake Trienen. Beane is not an idiot like the former GM of the Mariners. There may be hope for AJ Cole on that time will tell.

      2. Lucas G was the Hollywood matinee idol brought in who seems like a Netflix actor in Chicago south side

3. For those on Facebook, go to the P-Nats page and check out the players and coaches re-creating a scene from Bull Durham. It’s hilarious. They obviously had fun doing it.

4. Nightengale is usually wrong and can be a foil mouthpiece for propaganda, so his report that Dodgers and Angels were trying to get Herrera may be fake news. But it there is truth, it does demonstrate that there is a lot more appreciation for the Nats system products than we may appreciate.

   1. Had to think, as Luke suggests, it was the young 17 year old Dominican pitcher. KC’s scouts must really love that kid. Yohanse Morel might be a lot more than any of us had time to realize …

   2. Nightingale is truly CNN of MLB

5. Gil I was trying to match you in a long winded response but my cell died and lost the whole scroll , so a brief summation .
   Kelvin G reminded me of Estarlin Martinez with no lift and launch as Kevin Long would love .
   Let’s hope the vacancies from trades and promotions benefits many in the short and long haul.
   Let’s hope Bob Miller can keep Harper in DC with a magic wand bookkeeping job even if various parts of the roster have to go young especially in the bullpen. Where art thou, Romeo… erase …. Koda Glover…
   Catching the great love of mike Rizzo the former minor league backstop.
   Names like Dunlop, Carrillo Joey Harris . Alex Flores and some names Michael Barrett can rattle off in his sleep prove that moving Read @ the deadline would only upset the young kid in Harrisburg desiring the Sens to hammer the Phillies every series .
   What is more interesting than waiting to see how hot next weekend will be or how Nats bash the Birds ( or make the first Nats/Birds trade ever☕️)… how will brass hand out the promotions after the All Star break .
   Could we see both Noll & Kieboom join in the daily infield / outfield rotation LuCroy was spinning inBurg. Does Potomac lose 5-6 guys to Burg with less than a handful coming up from Hags??
   Time will tell on all accounts

6. Lol Jeff!

   Me thinks we see a lot of upward mobility from Potomac. But other than Banks, and return of Agustin, hard to envision fill coming from Hagerstown. Time for some short term Indy league signing, or just chances for people like Boggetto to get PT. I can’t see Garcia getting rushed yet. But I’m excited by him.

7. So true about Estrada, the waitress at Denny’s. One excellent year, and paid a load to be an inning eater. He isn’t the first ordinary starter to look like Cy Young against the Nats. Sorry, not Nats material.

   And to boot, he was let go early 2010, which is like B.C.E.

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