The BA Prospect Handbook, Part One
If you’re thinking this is late, you’re right. Usually the book arrives in January, sometimes in early February.
For better or worse, the Baseball America Prospect Handbook is the Bible for prospect followers insofar as everyone refers to it. I’d say more but—to steal from Jeff Foxworthy—who needs grief from folks who flip you the bird when you obey their “honk if you love Jesus” bumper sticker?
The brethren from Durham have deemed the Nationals as the 15th-best organization of the 30, despite midseason trades that cost them last year’s nos. 15, 17, and 27 prospects (see below) and a breakout southpaw (McKenzie Mills). That’s how much they valued the 2017 Draft, which is represented by seven pitchers in the Top 31.
New to the book this year are positional rankings for prospects across of all of baseball, of which Victor Robles was ranked the #2 centerfielder, Juan Soto, the #7 corner outfielder, and Carter Kieboom, the #15 shortstop.
Despite the Nats yo-yoing him like an Italian rapper between starting and relieving, Erick Fedde was still rated the 29th-best righthanded pitcher. (For those wondering, they ranked 10 for C, 1B, 2B, 3B, and COFs, 15 for LHP, 20 for SS and CF, and 40 for RHP.)
Without further ado, let’s review how last year’s Top 30 fared:
Graduated (4) – Wilmer Difo*, Koda Glover, A.J. Cole, Brian Goodwin,
Traded (3) – Jesus Luzardo, Sheldon Neuse, and Tyler Watson
Dropped out (3) – Edwin Lora, Matt Skole, Nick Banks
* had already surpassed service-time limits in 2016
That’s roughly a third of list, which is fairly normal. Seven of the nine newcomers are the aforementioned pitchers from the 2017 Draft. One you’ll see today, the other you’ll see tomorrow. They should be pretty obvious.
Unfortunately, none of them are teenagers, thus the Nats’ Top 31 according to BA still skews older: four players are or will be 25 before the season starts, two more will turn 25 during the season, and two more will turn 25 by the end of 2018. Some things never change.
So, as we’ve done in years past – a look at the Top 15 today, nos. 16-31 tomorrow. Last year’s ranking, if applicable, in parentheses:
| 1. Victor Robles (1) | 6. Luis Garcia (7) | 11. Blake Perkins (20) |
| 2. Juan Soto (3) | 7. Wil Crowe | 12. Kelvin Gutierrez (16) |
| 3. Erick Fedde (2) | 8. Daniel Johnson | 13. Andrew Stevenson (5) |
| 4. Carter Kieboom (8) | 9. Raudy Read (22) | 14. Pedro Severino (9) |
| 5. Seth Romero | 10. Yasel Antuna (25) | 15. Rafael Bautista (11) |
Everybody after #9 moves up one. However, if Read was #9, that doesn’t say much for the strength of the system right now.
I’m not concerned about age. Taylor, Goodwin, and Roark are late bloomers. If guys establish themselves at age 26 or 27, they still have their productive years under team control.
Except so-called late bloomers usually have shorter careers and rarely have prolonged success.
I’m not looking for these guys to have long careers. If the team gets 2-4 productive years out of them, that’s fine: bring on the next wave.
System rankings — meh. With all the trades and graduations over the last couple of years, the Nats don’t have one of the top 10-12 systems. The systems of 8-10 teams suck. So you could basically declare the Nats somewhere between 13 and 19 and be “right.”
It’s possible that the Nats could move into the 10-12 range just with strong performances from guys already in the system. On the flip side, if some of the younger kids struggle and the 2017 draftees don’t look like they’re panning out, this same crew could be sitting in the low 20s this time next year, particularly if Robles and Fedde graduate. More than likely, they’ll be back in the 15-18 range.
Let’s see, we have eight Latin players and seven U.S. draftees. Of the draftees, only Johnson isn’t a 1st or 2d rounder, and only Fedde and Stevenson have played above A+.
Of the top 10, only two (Fedde and Read) have more than half a season above A+, only three have played above A+, and six of the 10 have yet to play a full season of pro ball (two essentially have two half seasons).
So all in all, it’s a pretty inexperienced crew, particularly in the upper ranks.
This name just sounds cool off the tongue. Kameron. Esthay.
Another cup of coffee and a walk lead by my tuxedo clad dog dude, Luke