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The NationalsProspects.com Top 10
11 Pitchers

Much like the bats, there were handful of arms on which we could all agree, then it became a free-for-all.

This is actually par for the course – pitchers inspire a lot of strong emotions, in large part because the game begins with ’em and ends with ’em. Think about it: They’re usually the second question asked about your team (“Who are the _____ playing today? Who’s pitching?”).

Twenty-three different pitchers were named on ten ballots, same as last year. All three kinds were represented—old, young, and hurt—five, if you want to count the combinations.

Let’s do this…

  1. Erick Fedde
  2. Koda Glover
  3. Austin Voth
  4. Tyler Watson
  5. A.J. Cole
  6. Jesus Luzardo
  7. Joan Baez
  8. Weston Davis
  9. Ryan Brinley
  10. Matthew Crownover
  11. Tyler Mapes

McKenzie Mills, Andrew Lee, John Simms, Yonathan Ramirez, Nick Lee, Jaron Long, Bryan Harper, Jimmy Cordero, Steven Fuentes, Jake Johansen, Austin L. Adams, Gilberto Chu

Why 11? Well, because some idiot mixed up the days of service with innings pitched a couple of posts ago. So those of you who clarified or specified, I slotted him where you put him and if you didn’t I made him #5 since that was consensus (As it so happened, the gap between Cole and the Luzardo was so big that that maneuver made little difference).

Now for the requisite thoughts…

• Erick Fedde ends Lucas Giolito’s four-year run (which is a testament mainly to the latter’s age and hype) as the #1 pitcher in this highly unscientific poll. It would appear that two-plus years removed from TJ surgery that Fedde will be unrestricted in 2017, which is something to keep in mind if Joe Ross and/or Stephen Strasburg miss time or go under the knife.

• Most folks seem pretty confident Koda Glover will bounce back from labrum problems, which is good because he’s definitely a candidate to pitch in the late innings (don’t get me started on the whole closer misnomer).

• While Glover’s meteoric rise in 2016 enabled him to leapfrog Austin Voth, folks still believe in the Washington state native and truth be told, I wouldn’t be surprised if he got the nod ahead of Fedde, especially early in the 2017 season.

• Cole turns 25 early next month and one has to wonder how much longer the Nats will use him as a starter. He’s made 52 starts at AAA and hasn’t been significantly better than league average for the most part, with 2016 worse than 2015 and likewise 2015 vs. 2014.

• Luzardo has yet to throw a professional pitch, but folks seem very confident that he’ll recover. Just yesterday, however, we were reminded that the TJ surgery success rate is high, but it’s not (and never will be) 100 percent.

As always, feel free to discuss in the comments.

13 Commments

  1. I looked at Crownover, but his numbers at Potomac had little to recommend. He turns 24 in March. Luke, since you probably saw him a few times, am I missing something?

    I did vote for Brinley, who was terrific at Potomac, but his struggling stint at Harrisburg certainly gives pause. He’ll turn 24 in April but seems a bit farther up the food chain.

    1. Haha, I came here to post my surprise about Crownover too. Can one of those who are ‘high’ on him, pitch him to me? He looks like Austen Williams to me. A guy who doesn’t have particularly good stuff, but can overcompensate for being older than his competition.

      Anyway, this is a pretty dreadful list, and with most of the top talent soon to graduate, it’s only going to get worse….

      1. Luke was certainly right about Austen Williams, expressing a lot of skepticism about him during and after his strong 2015 season. I notice that he didn’t even get a vote this year.

        I wouldn’t call the overall arms talent “dreadful,” though. There are two AAA-AA starters in Fedde and Voth who look like they can be MLB starters, and Glover (if healthy) is an elite bullpen arm. Mapes, Simms, and Jaron Long all posted better AA numbers than Fedde (at a year older). It’s impossible (and unwise) to predict that anyone could be the “next Roark,” but I’d say there’s at least one “next Stammen” in that trio.

        The real gap in the system seems to be the starters who spent most of this season at Potomac and Hagerstown (not counting Fedde, who was promoted at mid-season). Andrew Lee looked like the potential breakout guy from this group but missed 2/3 of the season with an unknown (and presumably bad) injury. Hearn got traded but already looked like a bullpen guy anyway. Avila also got traded, as did Dunning, who I thought would move quickly through these levels. So unless you’re still believin’ on Joan Baez as a starter (I’m not), or on Crownover, it’s very thin at these levels.

        The good news is that there is a wave of youngsters beyond this group that is really promising, headlined by Watson, Davis, Mills, and Ramirez. There are several other Dominicans and 2016 draftees who posted good numbers as well, plus the Luzardo lottery ticket. So the MLB ETA crew of 2020-21-22 is looking good. It’s the ETA crowd of 2018-19 that is very thin.

        1. To clarify, I’m not writing off Baez at all. I’m just not as convinced as some of the rest of you that he’ll start locating the plate any better with his “big arm.” He’s one whose numbers have yet to match his supposed talent.

        2. The good news is that there is a wave of youngsters beyond this group that is really promising, headlined by Watson, Davis, Mills, and Ramirez. There are several other Dominicans and 2016 draftees who posted good numbers as well, plus the Luzardo lottery ticket. So the MLB ETA crew of 2020-21-22 is looking good. It’s the ETA crowd of 2018-19 that is very thin.

          Ultimately, this is where the focus ought to be. Funny thing about pitchers is that they can — and d0 — come out of nowhere like Roark and Stammen (and Treinen, and Erik Davis, and Aaron Barrett…)

          As for Crownover, like most of the last four pitchers, one or two more votes (or less for the others) were the difference between the bold print and the fine print. Not coincidentally, those slots were filled by folks who appeared on five ballots or fewer. Yet another example of the dangers of a small sample (hey, that rhymes!)

          1. We have a bevy of talented recent DSL products.

            Chu, Guillen, Infante and Sisnero were each very good in the DSL this year. They all had ERAs under 3.20 (Sisnero’s was an outstanding 0.43!), and each struck out close to 1 per inning, and very low walk rates (Infante walked the most, only 19 in 49 IP), and they were all age appropriate (18-19).

            I’m very interested to see how they all perform in GCL next year, and hopefully one or two will get a two-level promotion, a la Yonatan Ramirez this year (or an incredible 3 level promotion like our dearly departed Pedro Avila), which brings me to some of DSL products from 2014/15.

            Yonathan Ramirez stands out to me as the best. After two pretty good seasons in DSL, he got bumped to Auburn, skipping GCL, and held his own (3.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 41 K in 53 IP), which is no small feat for a 19 year old.

            Steven Fuentes, a couple weeks younger than Ramirez, posted very similar numbers, though seems to profile as a RP. 3.65 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 47 K, 49 IP. Impressive stuff.

            Francys Peguero wasn’t as much of an unqualified success. He skipped GCL, but struggled in Auburn, and was demoted to GCL, where he was lights out 34 K, 5 BB in 32 IP. Though he’s older than everyone else I’ve mentioned.

            Then there were inevitably a bunch of set backs. Alastre, J. Rosa, J. German, among others seem to have hit a wall in GCL, and I suspect we’ll see many of the promising DSL grads struggle at higher levels next year. Because they’re all so far off, it’s hard to get excited about them. But given how cautious the Nats have been with college draftees (with so many being sent to GCL), and HS draftees (guys like Davis and Mills’ being handled extremely carefully in their first couple seasons), perhaps DSL grads aren’t riskier than others.

          2. Luke you might do a posting
            In new year closer to March camp called Bump up or repeat :
            Example : meijia. Repeat PotomAc or Burg
            Davidson . Repeat Potnats or Burg
            Matt Page repeat PotomAc or
            Birg
            Drew Ward. Repeat Burg until
            Kelvin G gets bump up or position change ?
            David Masters super sub @ Harrisburg?
            Who here said Reggie Corona
            Re- linked with Nats for possibly Harrisburg?
            Jake Noll: potomAc or repeat hags
            DK Carey and his protoge Victor 5 tool Robles repeat
            PotomAc or bump up to burg
            Y Rodrieguez in hags winter
            Roster but possibly PotomAc
            With wiseman and Agustin ??

      1. Yes, he did. And I did vote for him. I assume he will start 2017 at Harrisburg for his next shot at AA.

  2. Pingback: Top 10 Arms; Starters and Relievers separately ranked at Nationals Arm Race

  4. Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays to all here, and especially Luke for keeping this wonderful site going!!!!

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